Blackhawks have no answer for Tarasenko line

If there’s one thing that’s become exceedingly clear in the Chicago - St. Louis series, it’s that the Blackhawks simply do not have an answer for the Vladimir Tarasenko line.

Think about the magnitude of that statement. You can probably count on one hand the number of players who have put Chicago in a torture chamber over the last seven years. It almost never happens.

But, the Chicago hockey machine is in trouble. I wrote a month ago that the Blackhawks were, relatively speaking, coming apart at the seams – a far cry from the dominant teams we have witnessed in the Joel Quenneville era.

The top-end talent is still there. And, generally, this is still a good hockey team. But the depth is starting to leave something to be desired, and it’s showing in the matchups against a St. Louis team that’s rife with talent in its own right.

Chicago’s troubles with the Tarasenko line have been patently obvious since Game 1, and even with the Blackhawks having last change in Game 3 and 4, nothing has really slowed that group down.

Playing primarily with Jori Lehtera and Jaden Schwartz, you can see how Tarasenko and co. have been able to punish Chicago with stunning regularity.

Save Game 4 (where St. Louis nursed a lead for long stretches), the Blues have far and away been the better team with the Tarasenko group on the ice. They’re getting 60 per cent of the scoring chances and 59 per cent of the goals – numbers that generally go the way of Chicago at 5-on-5.

If you think the one-sided scoring chance and shot differentials aren’t having an impact, consider that Chicago’s managed to score all of one goal with the Tarasenko group on the ice. It’s extremely difficult to mount offence when you’re consistently defending the run of play – a problem that’s demonstrably observable in this series, and true for long spurts of the regular season. (Reminder: Chicago was out-scored by Arizona and Edmonton at evens this year.)

A quick aside: It’s worth reiterating we are just talking about 5-on-5 here. Jaden Schwartz has a pair of power-play goals. Tarasenko has a goal and two assists. Beating Chicago back into the defensive zone at evens has meant more penalties and more man advantage chances, and the Blues have capitalized on those opportunities.  

The logical question that should follow here is who Chicago is deploying to try and slow down this group? Below, I’ve compiled head-to-head Corsi% and ice-time for each of the regular Blackhawks skaters. You can see that it’s been more or less a collective failure, but there are a few players in particular that have struggled.

I think the first thing that pops is that Niklas Hjalmarsson has been understandably tasked with the impossibility of slowing this group down, shadowing Tarasenko et al. through the first four games. The problem is he’s getting steamrolled in the process. Considering Hjalmarsson is a very competent and capable defender, I think this says more about how freakishly talented the St. Louis group is.

You can see that manifest well beyond Hjalmarsson. Look at Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. Chicago’s “Big Three” have been fighting to just break even.

So, what’s the solution for Chicago? I don’t think there’s a great answer here, though I do think the Blackhawks can push to get best-on-best as much as possible, specifically with the line combinations.

The performance of the Toews line might seem middling at first blush, but compare it to their “checking line” of Andrew Shaw, Marcus Kruger, and Tomas Fleischmann. In the minutes the checking line has seen, they have been embarrassingly ineffective.

Unfortunately for Chicago, that decision is going to be somewhat taken out of their hands. There are, best-case scenario, three games remaining – two of which will be played at Scottrade Center, where Ken Hitchcock will be in total control of the matchups.

Let’s see if the Blues can deliver the death knell in Game 5.