Hello!
I'm thrilled to be part of the TSN team covering basketball and look forward to some fun and good hoops in the years to come. I can't believe I'm starting my eleventh year as an analyst for Toronto Raptors' games. It's been an enjoyable ride the past 10-years in my various roles and it's incredible how much the game has grown and the passion folks have.
The good folks at TSN have asked me to write a weekly column, I'm no literary legend like Billy Shakespeare but I'll give it my best shot.
Everyone is excited about this year's edition of the Raptors. I'd have to agree that expectations are about as high as they have been since 2001-02 when the Raptors were coming off a loss in Game 7 to the 76ers in the Eastern semis. I come into this season as I did that year with high hopes for the team/organization to take the next step on the NBA landscape. The 2001-02 season was a disappointment but I'm confident if things fall in place (knock wood) that this year's team, coming off back-to-back playoff appearances with 1st round exits, is ready to grow and mature.
The Raptors are a stable organization. They have a committed ownership group, excellent leadership in the front office and a very good coaching staff that's been together and knows the pluses and minuses of their players better than anyone.
Most importantly, I've been around enough to know when I see good character guys as players as well as frauds. I'm quite impressed with the players assembled for this year's squad.
No one ever said it was going to be easy and this year's edition of the Eastern Conference will be a major test. The NBA Champs are from the East in Boston and Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando and Philly will also be tough. Don't sleep on Washington, at least when they're healthy, and Atlanta, if they can continue to mature.
The number seven is one of my favorite numbers so I thought I'd give you my "Seven Keys" for the Raptors if they are to take the next step this season.
Here we go:
1. Health - The Raps are going with the mantra 'Less is More' by carrying only 13 roster players due to salary cap limitations. I'm a huge believer in this. Tight role definition where everyone knows their role and there are no extra guys cashing a cheque and complaining about how much run they get instead of being grateful that they've got a good seat.
It's all about keeping guys fresh and sharp and if they can get thru the regular season in good shape, it will help a great deal come playoff time. In the playoffs you normally don't go much past your 8th guy, so having a tight rotation with great chemistry and role definition is huge. The key for Sam Mitchell and his staff is to keep a keen eye on practice planning, days off and distribution of minutes on some nights.
Give me "Quality" over "Quantity" in the playoffs any day of the week and the Raps have more quality with the addition of a healthy Jermaine O'Neal.
2. Depth - Your 2nd unit guys have got to be consistent and get better as the season goes along and, on some nights, steal a game for you.
The backup PG's, Roko Ukic and Will Solomon, need to be steady, solid and manage the game well. The wings, like Jason Kapono and Joey Graham, need to add 3-point shooting, in the case of Kapono, and defence and rebounding, in the case of Graham.
The young big men, in my opinion, are ready to take the next step. I think that Andrea Bargnani can be a very good player in this league and Kris Humphries can bring lots of energy in bursts. Wouldn't it be terrific if a few of these guys - Kapono, Bargnani, Humphries - had career years? If that happened, the Raptors would be on their way to being between pretty to really good as a team. It's definitely possible as all of them are quite capable of doing it.
3. Jermaine O'Neal - If the Raptors can get 70-plus games in addition to the playoffs out of him, they're in good shape.
He will make the Raptors better defensivly with his shot blocking, communication, energy and awareness as a team defender. He'll rebound and score baskets in a number of ways. I'm a huge believer in playing inside/out and am a fan of power basketball, playing the percentages, being strong in the paint, getting to the FT line, having lane intimidation, rebounding, defending with energy and being just plain tough.
Shooting threes is pretty but give me some dudes that are going to get after it when the chips are on the line. I think with O'Neal playing along with Chris Bosh he'll be in a perfect role to bring it. He's got it in him and this is the perfect time for him to show his fire. Knock wood for good health. Risk vs. Reward - I like this move.
4. Career Years - I said it before and I'll say it again for the Raptors to be really good, at least two of the three of Kapono, Bargnani and Humphries need to play the best that they've played as NBA players.
The starter that really has to get better is Jamario Moon. He needs to get to the basket, get to the FT line, and show more of a mean and nasty streak. He's a talent who can block shots and get steals and deflections but he needs grit and consistent productivity. The Raptors need to keep people in front of him and contest lots of shots. He was a wonderful story last year but now he's got to be there for you each night in all phases of the game.
5. Team Defense And Rebounding - Look at the Boston Celtics, the tough blue collar team that beat the Lakers from the supposedly stronger conference. The commitment on this side of the ball is paramount. No nonsense, get after it - limit penetration, contest shots, box out on boards, bang cutters and create your breaks. Gang rebound and win the loose ball (50/50 balls) battles.
When Sam Mitchell played he was a tough competitor who got after it. I think his fifth team as a Raptor head coach will most resemble what he was about as a player. The Raps need to if they are to take the next step. A team normally takes on the personality of its coach and this team needs to mirror Mitchell from his playing days.
6. Play With An Edge - This team has good character guys that will be professional, show up each day giving an honest day's effort and be good ambassadors for the organization and the sport. Now this team has to get an edge and be a lot nastier. The stakes are higher. If this team can stay healthy, the talent is there to go further this year. The edge I'm referring to needs to be a consistent habit, not an on/off thing that teases people.
7. Coaching - I have a great deal of respect for Sam Mitchell and his staff (Jay Triano, Alex English, Mike Evans, Eric Hughes, Gord Herbert). This is a very good staff and they are all on the same page. This team is on a fine line now. If they are to take the next step, the coaches have to get the very best out of each guy and get the team to play well on both sides of the ball. The attention to detail and ability to be creative and consistent at the same time are significant. Usually when you're in this circumstance it's finding that fine line between teaching, psychology, X's and O's, pushing/pulling back and intensity/biting the tongue that is key. It's ever easy, believe me.
I'm quite confident that Sam Mitchell and his staff know the buttons that have to be pushed. He has grown each year as a coach and in year five I think he's the most comfortable and confident in what he believes, that means a lot.
PREDICTIONS:
A. Regular Season - I think this team is capable of between 45-50 wins. I'll say 48.
B. Playoffs - I'm saying this team gets to at least the 2nd round this year and if they stay healthy and some breaks go their way, they can get to where Vince Carter and the 2001 team couldn't, the Conference Finals.
The next two years of NBA basketball in the GTA are going to be quite interesting and as always lots of fun.
See you all on TSN and TSN2!