Tolensky: A statistical look at truculence

First off I need to apologize for my extended absence. In just over a month I've gone from Toronto to the West Cost, where the only 'person' I saw wearing a hockey jersey was the Gretzky statue outside Staples Center, and to the East Coast (three times), where I didn't have to look far to meet someone who named their baby Sidney. Things are finally settled now so I'll be writing in this spot regularly.

During one of my flights when I was fortunate enough to get upgraded, I was sitting in my seat drinking some red wine and eating beef tenderloin, and I looked around and knew exactly how the Colorado Avalanche must have felt during their hot start. I was really enjoying the ride but thinking it probably won't go on like that and that I don't quite belong there. Since that time, the Avs have gone 2-4-1 so perhaps things are getting back closer to where most expected them to be. But still you have to be impressed by their young players and Craig Anderson. They're moving in the right direction for sure.

My commitment is to do everything within my power to submit a column at least on a weekly basis and to catch the Leafs in the standings ASAP - 4 wins to 2 columns is disappointing to say the least. But enough about me...

Talking Truculence

Speaking of the Leafs, I was curious as to whether all this added truculence was paying off and what I found was quite interesting. To date, Leaf players have gotten in 22 fights over 11 games. They have played another 11 games without any fights. Some interesting stats:

Leafs' record when Colton Orr fights: 1-5-1
Leafs' record when any player fights: 1-7-3
Leafs' record when more than one player fights: 0-4-2
Leafs' record when NOBODY fights: 3-4-4

All of Colton Orr's fights have come in the first period. Time of his fights: 1:54, 2:19, 10:18, 6:02, 2:54, 2:27, 10:04. Twice the Leafs were losing 2-0 when he fought. They lost those games 7-2 and 5-2. In the other five games they were tied and they went on to win just 1 of 5.

To date the truculence clearly isn't resulting in a whole lot of W's and neither is the $4 mil commitment to Colton Orr. But we're only 1/4 of the way through the season and I imagine that the team still has a lot of fight(s) in them.

Hall of Fame Induction

Induction weekend is always one of my favorites on the hockey calendar and this year was an extraordinary class with four franchise icons.

* Luc Robitaille scored more goals as a King than any player.
* Brett Hull scored more goals as a Blue than any player (by 175).
* Steve Yzerman scored more goals as a Wing than any player not named Gordie Howe.
* Brian Leetch is the second highest point producer in Rangers' history to Rod Gilbert, with 981 points.

Looking at Yzerman's stats his career can be broken down into three phases (note that PO=Playoff Points in the chart).

As a young star Yzerman stepped in and produced right away. As an offensive superstar he put up unbelievable stats (1.45 PPG for nine years) but almost ended up an Ottawa Senator. Re-watching highlights from that phase it's amazing to think back to how good he was. But I'll always remember watching Yzerman grow into his role as an elite leader, one of the greatest leaders this game has ever seen. Phase 3 wasn't as prolific but it was certainly more memorable.

The 2010 class will be really interesting for two reasons – firstly we'll finally likely see a woman inducted into the Hall. Secondly, there are quite a few worthy candidates, especially based on past precedence, including Joe Nieuwendyk, Doug Gilmour, Adam Oates, Sergei Makarov, Guy Carbonneau, Pavel Bure, Dave Andreychuk, Alexander Mogilny, Phil Housley, Eric Lindros, Rogie Vachon and Theo Fleury.

If I had to choose just four, here are my picks:

Dave Andreychuk – 13th all-time in goals with 640.

Pavel Bure – among those who have played 400+ NHL games, Bure's GPG (0.62) is third to Mike Bossy (0.76) and Mario Lemieux (0.75). Cam Neely is one of my all-time favorites but if he gets in with 395 goals in 726 games, Bure is in with 437 in 702. Injuries aside, those were two of the most exciting and dominant players of their generation.

Sergei Makarov – the only member from the IIHF Centennial All-Star team that isn't in the Hall (Tretiak, Fetisov, Salming, Kharlamov, Gretzky).

Adam Oates – 6th all-time in assists with 1079. The rest of the top 10 (Gretzky, Francis, Messier, Bourque, Coffey, Yzerman, Howe, Dionne, Lemieux) are in. Sits 16th on the list in points.

I think most of the other guys I listed above will make it, most of them sooner rather than later but those would be the next four to go in if it was up to me.

Does Continuity Make for a Better Start?

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at roster turnover to see whether the teams that made fewer changes over the last year were the ones who took less time to gel at the outset. Looking at the NHL's official rosters provided on the opening day of the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons, here are the teams sorted by % of roster returning, from high to low (note that some percentages are different because of the number of players on IR, which expands the actual number of players technically on a roster:

Overall, 60% of players were on the same roster (or IR) for the past two seasons on opening day.

The continuity likely helped play a role in the early success that Buffalo, Calgary, Washington, Nashville, Dallas and Chicago had. Of course then you have teams like Edmonton, Vancouver and Minnesota who have struggled despite minimal turnover – although it's worth noting that two of those teams have new coaches and the third was missing it's superstar goalie due to injury.

At the other end of the spectrum are teams like Montreal, Anaheim and the Rangers who have turned over more than half of their rosters in just over a year and are still trying to come together and start to move up in the standings. Tampa has turned over most of their roster yet again and it seems to be paying off thus far.

In the middle you see mixed results with St. Louis and Carolina struggling and Pittsburgh and New Jersey succeeding.

With 40% of the league's players changing teams in a year it's rare to see a team have success and still maintain its roster. I imagine we will continue to see teams locking up their younger players and the veterans turning over more frequently due to the cap. The most important aspect is locking up the right players and changing the mix around them to ensure the best talent/chemistry each year.

In the coming weeks we'll be looking in more depth at roster compositions and commitments but I wanted to mention one team that has flown a bit under the radar despite their diligence in getting contracts done.

It's obvious that Columbus believes that they have the right player and mix to contend for years to come. Very quickly the Blue Jackets have been locking up its core to long-term deals. Since June 30th they have re-signed Kris Russell (3 years, $3.9 million), Rostislav Klesla (4 years, $11.9 million), Antoine Vermette (5 years, $18.75 million), Derick Brassard (4 years, $12.8 million), Rick Nash (8 years, $62.4 million).

Their core players are all locked up through next year and they have Nash, Huselius, Umberger, Vermette, Brassard, Pahlsson, Chimera, Commodore, Klesla, Tyutin and Russell and signed for the 2011-12 season. There's something to be said for strong drafting and development, augmenting the core with trades and signings and committing to the group for the foreseeable future. Once Mason gets back on track, this team will be a team to watch in the West.