Forecasting is part of the game -- a big part of the game -- when it comes to fantasy sports, so it can be interesting to look back to see where some forecasts were on target and why some others may have missed the mark.
Scott Cullen takes a look at his 2010-2011 NHL projections and compares his projected Top 300 with their actual points-per-game results.
What strikes me about the list of players that I under-estimated is that they were either breakout offensive seasons or, at the other end of the spectrum, proven scorers that either weren't quite ready to start their decline.
Teemu Selanne obviously fits in the latter group but, when he was healthy, Brian Rafalski was very productive in his final season with the Red Wings, as was Nicklas Lidstrom. Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay had some chemistry in Calgary, too.
Players like Drew Stafford, Keith Yandle, Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd, Sergei Kostitsyn, Claude Giroux and Jamie Benn were among the biggest breakout performers offensively. Rookies Jeff Skinner and Logan Couture exceeded all expecations, mine included.
Sidney Crosby, already with high expectations, was on his way to a career year before suffering his season-ending concussion.
At the other end of the spectrum, we'll ignore the results for Peter Mueller, Matthew Lombardi and, for the most part, Zach Parise, because injuries sabotaged most or all of their seasons. Marc Savard and Alexander Frolov could be on the injured crew too, but they weren't producing at particularly high levels before their seasnos were prematurely ended.
Defencemen Mike Green and Sergei Gonchar were among the biggest disappointments while my expectations weren't outrageously high (or so I thought), Alexei Ponikarovsky, David Clarkson, Nikolay Zherdev, Wojtek Wolski and Scott Gomez were underachievers.
Among those projected for better than a point-per-game the biggest underachievers were: Parise, Nicklas Backstrom, Marian Gaborik, Evgeni Malkin, Alexander Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk. Not a banner year for my Russian comrades.
On the other hand, the biggest jumps, above projection, to get over a point-per-game included: Selanne, Iginla, Brad Richards, Pavel Datsyuk and Derek Roy. Not quite so surprising.
In the interest of full disclosure, the following players didn't make my Top 300 projections last September, yet finished with better than .50 points-per-game (these would be the darkhorses on draft day): Brendan Morrison, P.A. Parenteau, Teddy Purcell, Kevin Shattenkirk, Tyler Kennedy, Matt D'Agostini, Brad Marchand and Mike Santorelli.
Anyway, a look back at projections and results from the 2010-2011 NHL season:
Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook.