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Cullen: 2010-2011 NHL point projections and results

Scott Cullen
7/11/2011 5:31:25 PM
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Forecasting is part of the game -- a big part of the game -- when it comes to fantasy sports, so it can be interesting to look back to see where some forecasts were on target and why some others may have missed the mark.

Scott Cullen takes a look at his 2010-2011 NHL projections and compares his projected Top 300 with their actual points-per-game results.

What strikes me about the list of players that I under-estimated is that they were either breakout offensive seasons or, at the other end of the spectrum, proven scorers that either weren't quite ready to start their decline.

Teemu Selanne obviously fits in the latter group but, when he was healthy, Brian Rafalski was very productive in his final season with the Red Wings, as was Nicklas Lidstrom. Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay had some chemistry in Calgary, too.

Players like Drew Stafford, Keith Yandle, Milan Lucic, Andrew Ladd, Sergei Kostitsyn, Claude Giroux and Jamie Benn were among the biggest breakout performers offensively. Rookies Jeff Skinner and Logan Couture exceeded all expecations, mine included.

Sidney Crosby, already with high expectations, was on his way to a career year before suffering his season-ending concussion.

At the other end of the spectrum, we'll ignore the results for Peter Mueller, Matthew Lombardi and, for the most part, Zach Parise, because injuries sabotaged most or all of their seasons. Marc Savard and Alexander Frolov could be on the injured crew too, but they weren't producing at particularly high levels before their seasnos were prematurely ended.

Defencemen Mike Green and Sergei Gonchar were among the biggest disappointments while my expectations weren't outrageously high (or so I thought), Alexei Ponikarovsky, David Clarkson, Nikolay Zherdev, Wojtek Wolski and Scott Gomez were underachievers.

Among those projected for better than a point-per-game the biggest underachievers were: Parise, Nicklas Backstrom, Marian Gaborik, Evgeni Malkin, Alexander Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk. Not a banner year for my Russian comrades.

On the other hand, the biggest jumps, above projection, to get over a point-per-game included: Selanne, Iginla, Brad Richards, Pavel Datsyuk and Derek Roy. Not quite so surprising.

In the interest of full disclosure, the following players didn't make my Top 300 projections last September, yet finished with better than .50 points-per-game (these would be the darkhorses on draft day): Brendan Morrison, P.A. Parenteau, Teddy Purcell, Kevin Shattenkirk, Tyler Kennedy, Matt D'Agostini, Brad Marchand and Mike Santorelli.

Anyway, a look back at projections and results from the 2010-2011 NHL season:

No. Player '10-'11 Team Position Proj. PPG Actual PPG Diff.
1 Teemu Selanne Anaheim RW 0.73 1.10 0.37
2 Sidney Crosby Pittsburgh C 1.30 1.61 0.31
3 Drew Stafford Buffalo RW 0.55 0.84 0.29
4 Alex Tanguay Calgary LW 0.62 0.87 0.26
5 Lubomir Visnovsky Anaheim D 0.59 0.84 0.25
6 Keith Yandle Phoenix D 0.47 0.72 0.25
7 Milan Lucic Boston LW 0.54 0.78 0.25
8 Ryan Whitney Edmonton D 0.53 0.77 0.24
9 Brian Rafalski Detroit D 0.53 0.76 0.24
10 Ryan Callahan N.Y. Rangers RW 0.58 0.80 0.22
11 Andrew Ladd Atlanta LW 0.51 0.73 0.22
12 Jeff Skinner Carolina C 0.55 0.77 0.22
13 Brent Seabrook Chicago D 0.38 0.59 0.21
14 Nicklas Lidstrom Detroit D 0.55 0.76 0.21
15 Sergei Kostitsyn Nashville LW 0.45 0.65 0.20
16 Claude Giroux Philadelphia C 0.73 0.93 0.20
17 Jarome Iginla Calgary RW 0.85 1.05 0.20
18 Corey Perry Anaheim RW 1.00 1.20 0.20
19 Jamie Benn Dallas LW 0.63 0.81 0.19
20 Patrick Sharp Chicago C 0.78 0.96 0.18
21 Dustin Byfuglien Atlanta D 0.47 0.65 0.18
22 Tobias Enstrom Atlanta D 0.53 0.71 0.18
23 Logan Couture San Jose LW 0.53 0.71 0.18
24 Michael Grabner N.Y. Islanders RW 0.51 0.68 0.17
25 James Wisniewski NYI/Mtl. D 0.51 0.68 0.17
26 Andy McDonald St. Louis C 0.70 0.86 0.16
27 Dan Cleary Detroit LW 0.51 0.68 0.16
28 Martin St. Louis Tampa Bay RW 1.05 1.21 0.16
29 Justin Williams Los Angeles RW 0.62 0.78 0.16
30 Vaclav Prospal N.Y. Rangers LW 0.64 0.79 0.15
31 Erik Cole Carolina RW 0.48 0.63 0.15
32 Thomas Vanek Buffalo LW 0.76 0.91 0.15
33 John Tavares N.Y. Islanders C 0.71 0.85 0.14
34 Martin Erat Nashville RW 0.65 0.78 0.13
35 Danny Briere Philadelphia C 0.76 0.88 0.13
36 Mark Giordano Calgary D 0.40 0.52 0.12
37 John-Michael Liles Colorado D 0.49 0.61 0.12
38 Milan Hejduk Colorado RW 0.67 0.79 0.12
39 Nikolai Kulemin Toronto LW 0.58 0.70 0.12
40 Matt Moulson N.Y. Islanders LW 0.53 0.65 0.11
41 Curtis Glencross Calgary LW 0.43 0.54 0.11
42 Ray Whitney Phoenix LW 0.65 0.76 0.11
43 Shane Doan Phoenix RW 0.73 0.83 0.11
44 David Legwand Nashville C 0.53 0.64 0.11
45 Bryan Little Atlanta RW 0.53 0.63 0.11
46 Tomas Kopecky Chicago RW 0.42 0.52 0.10
47 Christian Ehrhoff Vancouver D 0.53 0.63 0.10
48 David Backes St. Louis C 0.66 0.76 0.10
49 Dennis Wideman Fla./Was. D 0.44 0.53 0.10
50 Brad Richards Dallas C 0.97 1.07 0.10
51 Patrik Berglund St. Louis C 0.55 0.64 0.10
52 Frans Nielsen N.Y. Islanders C 0.53 0.62 0.09
53 Pavel Datsyuk Detroit C 0.96 1.05 0.09
54 Alex Pietrangelo St. Louis D 0.45 0.54 0.09
55 Matt Duchene Colorado C 0.75 0.84 0.09
56 Alexander Steen St. Louis LW 0.62 0.71 0.09
57 Loui Eriksson Dallass RW 0.84 0.92 0.09
58 Ryan Clowe San Jose LW 0.74 0.83 0.08
59 Brian Rolston New Jersey RW 0.44 0.52 0.08
60 Brandon Dubinsky N.Y. Rangers C 0.62 0.70 0.08
61 Tuomo Ruutu Carolina LW 0.61 0.70 0.08
62 Shea Weber Nashville D 0.51 0.59 0.08
63 Kristopher Letang Pittsburgh D 0.53 0.61 0.08
64 Derek Roy Buffalo C 0.93 1.00 0.08
65 Brent Burns Minnesota D 0.50 0.58 0.08
66 Erik Karlsson Ottawa D 0.53 0.60 0.07
67 Chris Kunitz Pittsburgh LW 0.65 0.73 0.07
68 Chris Stewart Col./St.L. RW 0.78 0.85 0.07
69 Ville Leino Philadelphia LW 0.58 0.65 0.07
70 David Jones Colorado RW 0.51 0.58 0.07
71 Ryan Suter Nashville D 0.49 0.56 0.07
72 Daniel Sedin Vancouver LW 1.20 1.27 0.07
73 David Bolland Chicago C 0.54 0.61 0.07
74 Michael Ryder Boston RW 0.45 0.52 0.07
75 Joe Pavelski San Jose C 0.83 0.89 0.06
76 Alexander Edler Vancouver D 0.58 0.65 0.06
77 Scott Hartnell Philadelphia LW 0.54 0.60 0.06
78 Niklas Kronwall Detroit D 0.42 0.48 0.06
79 Marek Zidlicky Minnesota D 0.47 0.52 0.05
80 Cory Stillman Fla./Car. LW 0.55 0.60 0.05
81 Matt Carle Philadelphia D 0.44 0.49 0.05
82 Artem Anisimov N.Y. Rangers C 0.49 0.54 0.05
83 Mikhail Grabovski Toronto C 0.67 0.72 0.05
84 Radim Vrbata Phoenix RW 0.56 0.61 0.05
85 Brenden Morrow Dallas LW 0.64 0.68 0.05
86 Derek Stepan N.Y. Rangers C 0.51 0.55 0.04
87 Jussi Jokinen Carolina C 0.70 0.74 0.04
88 Mike Ribeiro Dallas C 0.82 0.87 0.04
89 Mark Recchi Boston RW 0.55 0.59 0.04
90 Tomas Fleischmann Was./Col. LW 0.65 0.69 0.04
91 David Krejci Boston C 0.79 0.83 0.03
92 R.J. Umberger Columbus LW 0.66 0.70 0.03
93 Kimmo Timonen Philadelphia D 0.43 0.45 0.03
94 Steve Ott Dallas LW 0.43 0.45 0.03
95 Anze Kopitar Los Angeles C 0.95 0.97 0.02
96 Evander Kane Atlanta LW 0.57 0.59 0.02
97 Mikael Samuelsson Vancouver RW 0.64 0.67 0.02
98 Bobby Ryan Anaheim LW 0.84 0.87 0.02
99 Olli Jokinen Calgary C 0.66 0.68 0.02
100 Pierre-Marc Bouchard Minnesota LW 0.63 0.64 0.02
101 Ryan Malone Tampa Bay LW 0.68 0.70 0.02
102 Todd Bertuzzi Detroit RW 0.54 0.56 0.02
103 Mike Richards Philadelphia C 0.80 0.81 0.01
104 Tomas Kaberle Tor./Bos. D 0.56 0.57 0.01
105 Jonathan Toews Chicago C 0.94 0.95 0.01
106 Pascal Dupuis Pittsburgh LW 0.45 0.46 0.01
107 P.K. Subban Montreal D 0.49 0.49 0.01
108 Blake Wheeler Bos./Atl. LW 0.54 0.54 0.01
109 Tomas Plekanec Montreal C 0.74 0.74 0.00
110 Ryan Getzlaf Anaheim C 1.13 1.13 0.00
111 Mikko Koivu Minnesota C 0.87 0.87 0.00
112 Alex Goligoski Pit./Dal. D 0.56 0.55 0.00
113 Kris Versteeg Tor./Phi. LW 0.58 0.58 0.00
114 Colby Armstrong Toronto RW 0.46 0.46 0.00
115 Patrice Bergeron Boston C 0.72 0.71 0.00
116 David Perron St. Louis LW 0.71 0.70 -0.01
117 Zdeno Chara Boston D 0.55 0.54 -0.01
118 Jason Pominville Buffalo RW 0.72 0.71 -0.01
119 Devin Setoguchi San Jose RW 0.58 0.57 -0.01
120 Ryan Kesler Vancouver C 0.90 0.89 -0.01
121 Phil Kessel Toronto RW 0.79 0.78 -0.01
122 Henrik Zetterberg Detroit C 1.01 1.00 -0.01
123 Chris Higgins Fla./Van. LW 0.46 0.45 -0.01
124 Derick Brassard Columbus C 0.65 0.64 -0.01
125 Saku Koivu Anaheim C 0.61 0.60 -0.01
126 Antti Miettinen Minnesota LW 0.50 0.48 -0.02
127 Anton Babchuk Car./Cgy. D 0.45 0.43 -0.02
128 Jack Johnson Los Angeles D 0.53 0.51 -0.02
129 Manny Malhotra Vancouver C 0.44 0.42 -0.02
130 Guillaume Latendresse Minnesota LW 0.57 0.55 -0.02
131 John Carlson Washington D 0.47 0.45 -0.02
132 Brad Boyes St. Louis RW 0.69 0.66 -0.02
133 Carlo Colaiacovo St. Louis D 0.43 0.40 -0.03
134 Tom Gilbert Edmonton D 0.36 0.33 -0.03
135 Marian Hossa Chicago LW 0.91 0.88 -0.03
136 Ales Hemsky Edmonton RW 0.93 0.89 -0.03
137 Eric Staal Carolina C 0.98 0.94 -0.04
138 Patrik Elias New Jersey LW 0.81 0.77 -0.04
139 Alex Burrows Vancouver RW 0.71 0.67 -0.04
140 Nathan Gerbe Buffalo LW 0.53 0.48 -0.04
141 Jeff Carter Philadelphia C 0.87 0.83 -0.05
142 Andrei Kostitsyn Montreal LW 0.61 0.56 -0.05
143 Jordan Eberle Edmonton RW 0.68 0.62 -0.05
144 Steven Stamkos Tampa Bay C 1.16 1.11 -0.05
145 Rostislav Olesz Florida C 0.44 0.39 -0.05
146 Rick Nash Columbus RW 0.94 0.88 -0.06
147 Blake Comeau N.Y. Islanders RW 0.65 0.60 -0.06
148 Shawn Horcoff Edmonton C 0.63 0.57 -0.06
149 James van Riemsdyk Philadelphia LW 0.59 0.53 -0.06
150 Cody Franson Nashville D 0.42 0.36 -0.06
151 Johan Franzen Detroit RW 0.78 0.72 -0.06
152 Patrick Marleau San Jose LW 0.95 0.89 -0.06
153 T.J. Oshie St. Louis RW 0.75 0.69 -0.06
154 Martin Havlat Minnesota RW 0.86 0.79 -0.06
155 Andrew Brunette Minnesota LW 0.62 0.56 -0.06
156 Dan Boyle San Jose D 0.72 0.66 -0.06
157 Dion Phaneuf Toronto D 0.52 0.45 -0.06
158 Jason Blake Anaheim LW 0.49 0.42 -0.07
159 Valtteri Filppula Detroit RW 0.62 0.55 -0.07
160 Dustin Brown Los Angeles LW 0.76 0.70 -0.07
161 Bryan McCabe Fla./NYR D 0.49 0.42 -0.07
162 Dennis Seidenberg Boston D 0.46 0.40 -0.07
163 Erik Christensen N.Y. Rangers C 0.50 0.43 -0.07
164 Patric Hornqvist Nashville RW 0.68 0.61 -0.07
165 Joni Pitkanen Carolina D 0.56 0.49 -0.07
166 Henrik Sedin Vancouver C 1.22 1.15 -0.07
167 Fedor Tyutin Columbus D 0.42 0.34 -0.08
168 Marco Sturm Bos./LA/Was. LW 0.54 0.46 -0.08
169 Milan Michalek Ottawa LW 0.58 0.50 -0.08
170 Troy Brouwer Chicago LW 0.54 0.46 -0.08
171 Mason Raymond Vancouver LW 0.64 0.56 -0.08
172 Sam Gagner Edmonton C 0.70 0.62 -0.09
173 Jochen Hecht Buffalo LW 0.52 0.43 -0.09
174 Joel Ward Nashville RW 0.45 0.36 -0.09
175 Brian Campbell Chicago D 0.51 0.42 -0.09
176 Chris Pronger Philadelphia D 0.59 0.50 -0.09
177 Jack Skille Chi./Fla. RW 0.40 0.31 -0.09
178 Taylor Hall Edmonton LW 0.74 0.65 -0.09
179 Vincent Lecavalier Tampa Bay C 0.93 0.83 -0.09
180 Carl Gunnarsson Toronto D 0.39 0.29 -0.10
181 Andrew Cogliano Edmonton RW 0.53 0.43 -0.10
182 Martin Hanzal Phoenix C 0.53 0.43 -0.10
183 Kevin Bieksa Vancouver D 0.44 0.33 -0.10
184 Mike Cammalleri Montreal RW 0.81 0.70 -0.10
185 Lee Stempniak Phoenix RW 0.57 0.46 -0.11
186 Steve Downie Tampa Bay LW 0.67 0.56 -0.11
187 Stephane Robidas Dallas D 0.48 0.37 -0.11
188 Ryan O'Reilly Colorado C 0.46 0.35 -0.11
189 Matt Cullen Minnesota C 0.61 0.50 -0.11
190 Rene Bourque Calgary RW 0.74 0.63 -0.12
191 Steve Sullivan Nashville RW 0.62 0.50 -0.12
192 Tyler Ennis Buffalo C 0.72 0.60 -0.12
193 Jason Spezza Ottawa C 1.04 0.92 -0.12
194 Jay Bouwmeester Calgary D 0.41 0.29 -0.12
195 Ian White Cal./Car./SJ D 0.46 0.33 -0.12
196 Patrick Kane Chicago RW 1.12 1.00 -0.12
197 Radek Dvorak Fla/Atl. RW 0.46 0.33 -0.13
198 Nick Foligno Ottawa LW 0.54 0.41 -0.13
199 Dainius Zubrus New Jersey C 0.51 0.38 -0.13
200 Matt Beleskey Anaheim LW 0.41 0.29 -0.13
201 Viktor Stalberg Chicago RW 0.44 0.31 -0.13
202 Kyle Turris Phoenix C 0.52 0.38 -0.14
203 Stephen Weiss Florida C 0.78 0.64 -0.14
204 Jarret Stoll Los Angeles C 0.66 0.52 -0.14
205 Niklas Hagman Calgary LW 0.52 0.38 -0.14
206 Steve Reinprecht Florida C 0.49 0.34 -0.14
207 Dustin Penner Edmonton LW 0.70 0.56 -0.14
208 Colin Wilson Nashville C 0.56 0.41 -0.15
209 Rich Peverley Atl./Bos. C 0.65 0.50 -0.15
210 Sean Avery N.Y. Rangers LW 0.46 0.32 -0.15
211 Marc-Edouard Vlasic San Jose D 0.37 0.23 -0.15
212 Erik Johnson St. L./Col. D 0.53 0.38 -0.15
213 Jakub Voracek Columbus RW 0.73 0.58 -0.15
214 Brandon Yip Colorado RW 0.46 0.31 -0.15
215 Brian Gionta Montreal RW 0.72 0.56 -0.16
216 Jiri Hudler Detroit RW 0.66 0.51 -0.16
217 Mikael Backlund Calgary C 0.50 0.34 -0.16
218 Jamie Langenbrunner NJ/Dal. RW 0.62 0.46 -0.16
219 Wayne Simmonds Los Angeles RW 0.54 0.38 -0.16
220 Mike Knuble Washington RW 0.67 0.51 -0.16
221 Oliver Ekman-Larsson Phoenix D 0.39 0.23 -0.17
222 Zach Bogosian Atlanta D 0.41 0.24 -0.17
223 Nikita Filatov Columbus LW 0.47 0.30 -0.17
224 T.J. Galiardi Colorado LW 0.60 0.43 -0.17
225 James Neal Dal./Pit. LW 0.74 0.57 -0.17
226 Andy Greene New Jersey D 0.45 0.28 -0.17
227 Jordan Staal Pittsburgh C 0.67 0.50 -0.17
228 Kyle Okposo N.Y. Islanders RW 0.70 0.53 -0.17
229 Paul Martin Pittsburgh D 0.49 0.31 -0.18
230 Antoine Vermette Columbus C 0.75 0.57 -0.18
231 Peter Regin Ottawa LW 0.49 0.31 -0.18
232 Josh Bailey N.Y. Islanders C 0.58 0.40 -0.18
233 Jamie McBain Carolina D 0.58 0.39 -0.18
234 Eric Fehr Washington RW 0.57 0.38 -0.18
235 Simon Gagne Tampa Bay LW 0.82 0.63 -0.19
236 Ron Hainsey Atlanta D 0.42 0.23 -0.19
237 Michael Frolik Florida RW 0.66 0.48 -0.19
238 Tyler Myers Buffalo D 0.65 0.46 -0.19
239 Brooks Laich Washington LW 0.78 0.59 -0.19
240 Michal Handzus Los Angeles C 0.56 0.37 -0.19
241 Nathan Horton Boston RW 0.85 0.66 -0.19
242 Duncan Keith Chicago D 0.74 0.55 -0.19
243 Kurtis Foster Edmonton D 0.49 0.30 -0.20
244 Ed Jovanovski Phoenix D 0.48 0.28 -0.20
245 Joe Thornton San Jose C 1.08 0.88 -0.20
246 Niclas Bergfors Atl./Fla. RW 0.70 0.50 -0.20
247 Nazem Kadri Toronto C 0.62 0.41 -0.20
248 Steve Bernier Florida RW 0.42 0.22 -0.20
249 Magnus Paajarvi Edmonton LW 0.63 0.43 -0.21
250 Kristian Huselius Columbus LW 0.80 0.59 -0.21
251 Scottie Upshall Phx./CBJ LW 0.63 0.41 -0.21
252 David Booth Florida LW 0.70 0.49 -0.21
253 Ryan Smyth Los Angeles LW 0.78 0.57 -0.21
254 Tomas Holmstrom Detroit LW 0.72 0.51 -0.21
255 Nik Antropov Atlanta C 0.75 0.54 -0.21
256 Mike Fisher Ott./Nas. C 0.65 0.44 -0.21
257 Alex Kovalev Ott./Pit. RW 0.68 0.46 -0.22
258 Michael Del Zotto N.Y. Rangers D 0.46 0.23 -0.22
259 Brandon Sutter Carolina C 0.58 0.35 -0.22
260 Drew Doughty Los Angeles D 0.75 0.53 -0.23
261 Pavel Kubina Tampa Bay D 0.52 0.29 -0.23
262 Paul Stastny Colorado C 1.00 0.77 -0.23
263 Mike Modano Detroit C 0.61 0.38 -0.23
264 Ales Kotalik Calgary LW 0.47 0.23 -0.24
265 Dany Heatley San Jose RW 1.05 0.80 -0.25
266 Alexander Semin Washington RW 1.08 0.83 -0.25
267 Keith Ballard Vancouver D 0.36 0.11 -0.25
268 Tyler Seguin Boston C 0.55 0.30 -0.26
269 Brayden Schenn Los Angeles C 0.51 0.25 -0.26
270 Andrei Markov Montreal D 0.69 0.43 -0.26
271 Travis Zajac New Jersey C 0.80 0.54 -0.27
272 Tyler Bozak Toronto C 0.66 0.39 -0.27
273 Mike Comrie Pittsburgh LW 0.56 0.29 -0.27
274 Trent Hunter N.Y. Islanders RW 0.51 0.24 -0.27
275 Matt Stajan Calgary C 0.69 0.41 -0.28
276 Gilbert Brule Edmonton C 0.51 0.22 -0.29
277 Tim Connolly Buffalo C 0.91 0.62 -0.29
278 Jason Demers San Jose D 0.47 0.18 -0.30
279 Daniel Alfredsson Ottawa RW 0.88 0.57 -0.30
280 Ilya Kovalchuk New Jersey LW 1.05 0.74 -0.31
281 Lars Eller Montreal C 0.53 0.22 -0.31
282 Jason Arnott NJ/Was. C 0.75 0.42 -0.33
283 Alexander Ovechkin Washington LW 1.40 1.08 -0.33
284 Evgeni Malkin Pittsburgh C 1.19 0.86 -0.33
285 Scott Gomez Montreal C 0.81 0.48 -0.34
286 Marian Gaborik N.Y. Rangers RW 1.12 0.77 -0.34
287 Jean-Pierre Dumont Nashville LW 0.62 0.27 -0.34
288 Nicklas Backstrom Washington C 1.20 0.84 -0.35
289 Wojtek Wolski Phoenix C 0.84 0.48 -0.36
290 Nikolai Zherdev Philadelphia RW 0.76 0.39 -0.36
291 David Clarkson New Jersey RW 0.58 0.22 -0.36
292 Drayson Bowman Carolina LW 0.42 0.04 -0.37
293 Alexei Ponikarovsky Los Angeles LW 0.62 0.25 -0.38
294 Alexander Frolov N.Y. Rangers LW 0.77 0.37 -0.40
295 Marc Savard Boston C 0.84 0.40 -0.44
296 Sergei Gonchar Ottawa D 0.86 0.40 -0.45
297 Mike Green Washington D 0.95 0.49 -0.46
298 Zach Parise New Jersey LW 1.01 0.46 -0.55
299 Matthew Lombardi Nashville C 0.70 0.00 -0.70
300 Peter Mueller Colorado RW 0.65 N/A N/A

Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen.  For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook.




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