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Numbers Game: Cogliano shipped to Anaheim

Scott Cullen
7/12/2011 1:57:44 PM
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Squeezed aside by better options in Edmonton, Andrew Cogliano is looking at a fresh start in Southern California.

Numbers Game examines his trade to the Ducks.

The Ducks Get: C Andrew Cogliano.

Cogliano, 24, has yet to match the promise that he displayed as a rookie in 2007-2008 when he scored 18 goals and 45 points, registering the only plus rating of his career.

Since then, Cogliano's ice time has increased -- to a career-high 17:15 per game last season -- but his production has not and he may be at a crossroads in his career.

While Cogliano has the speed to create chances offensively, he's not a gifted finisher, scoring 21 goals on 268 shots (7.8%) over the last two seasons, making him one of 14 forwards to score at least 20 goals while converting fewer than 8.0% of his shots over the last two years.

A more troubling facet to Cogliano's game, given his position, is his lack of success in the faceoff circle.

In four seasons, Cogliano's best faceoff winning percentage is 43.0%, with an abysmal career mark of 40.2%. Last season, Cogliano took a team-high 1108 draws, so he's had ample opportunity to improve, but it would be understandable if the Ducks might be inclined to give Cogliano more time on the wing if he doesn't prove to be at least adequate on faceoffs.

With a fresh start in Anaheim, Cogliano could get a shot in a scoring role, but if his productivity doesn't improve, he can kill penalties and play in a checking role.

Cogliano has been durable, playing all 82 games in each of his four seasons. He made $1,000,000 last year and is eligible for arbitration, which will mean a raise, but a 35-point season shouldn't net him enough to cause any budgetary concerns.

The Oilers Get: A second-round pick in 2013.

A second-round pick generally has a 25-30% chance of turning into an NHL player. While there is some upside value there, the Oilers' decision to cut loose Cogliano essentially opens up room on their forward lines.

With Sam Gagner, Shawn Horcoff and free agent signee Eric Belanger (and perhaps Gilbert Brule, if healthy and rookie Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) available down the middle, there wasn't necessarily a lot of  room for Cogliano, yet the wings are well-stocked too. Really, where would Cogliano rank when the Oilers already have Taylor Hall, Ryan Smyth, Magnus Paajarvi, Ales Hemsky, Jordan Eberle and Linus Omark to play in the top nine?

In the right situation, Cogliano could be a 20-goal scorer (he's scored 18 twice) and it's worth it for the Ducks to find out if he can do it, but if Cogliano merely ends up as a checking forward, which is a very modest expectation, that is still good value for the Ducks.

Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook.




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