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Numbers Game: Senators get Ryan from Ducks

Scott Cullen
7/5/2013 4:42:21 PM
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After losing the face of their franchise earlier in the day, the Ottawa Senators turned around and made a blockbuster trade, acquiring one of the game's top young power forwards.

Numbers Game breaks down the Senators' acquisition of Bobby Ryan.

The Senators Get: RW Bobby Ryan.

Ryan, 26, is one of the best goal-scoring power forwards in the game, but is coming off a season in which he played just 16:35 per game, his lowest since 2008-2009, with the lowest goal (0.24) and point (0.65) scoring rates since his rookie year of 2007-2008.

Over the last five seasons, Alex Ovechkin is the only player in the league with five 30-goal seasons and Ryan is one of six to have four 30-goal seasons. Over the last three years, Ryan has scored 63 even-strength goals, which is tied for fifth in that span.

In Ottawa, Ryan is looking at a good opportunity to play with playmaking C Jason Spezza, but the bigger upgrade should come on the power play, where Ryan will get first unit time, unlike Anaheim, where he ranked sixth among regulars at 1:57 of power play time on ice per game.

With Daniel Alfredsson leaving for Detroit, and taking his 19-plus minutes per game with him, expect those minutes to shift to Ryan, who should be good for 30 goals and 60-plus points as he moves back to his natural right wing.

Ryan is signed for two more seasons. According to www.capgeek.com, he's owed a salary of $11.125-million, which is a little higher than his $5.1-million cap hit, entirely reasonable for the kind of top-tier scoring winger Ryan has been to this point in his career.

The Ducks Get: RW Jakob Silfverberg, RW Stefan Noesen and a first-round pick.

22-year-old Jakob Silfverberg was a second-round pick in 2009 and developed into a top prospect in Sweden, earning MVP in the Swedish Elite League after scoring 54 points in 49 games in 2011-2012, then he scored 29 points in 34 AHL games during the lockout last year before scoring 10 goals, 19 points and a plus-8 rating in 34 games with the Senators.

While Silfverberg's plus-minus benefitted from strong goaltending in Ottawa (.951 5v5 SV%), his offensive game has more potential than what happened in his rookie year. Silfverberg generated 2.79 shots on goal per game, which ranks 10th among rookies since 2000-2001.

If he gets a shot on the Ducks' top line, one of the plum positions in the league, alongside Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, that could certainly increase Silfverberg's production, but if he's in a secondary role, it's still entirely reasonable to expect 20 goals out of Silfverberg next season.

Silfverberg has another year on his entry-level deal, that comes at a cap hit of $900,000 next season, after which he will be a restricted free agent.

Noesen is a 20-year-old winger with good size and skill who was the 21st overall pick in 2011. His production dipped in 2012-2013, with 53 points in 51 games his lowest scoring rate over his last three junior campaigns, but he has the attributes to contribute offensively when he gets to the NHL. He'll get some time in the AHL, most likely, but gives the Ducks a quality young player to include in their forward mix.

The first-round pick is highly-variable in value. While the 2014 Draft isn't initially considered to be the strongest and both the Senators and Ducks don't know whether that pick will be late, middle or lottery, it's a third quality asset that the Ducks get in return for Ryan.

When the Ducks signed Getzlaf and Perry to contract extensions last season, it tightened their financial picture and Ryan has been rumoured to be traded just about every year he's been in the league, so moving him out wasn't entirely unexpected, but the Ducks aren't as good right now after making the deal.

Where the deal eventually has a chance to fall in the Ducks' favour is if they get inexpensive NHL production out of Silfverberg, Noesen and the first-round pick in the future. There's uncertainty in that kind of projection, but the Ducks adding three quality young assets is an effort to mitigate against that risk.

Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook.




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