J.O. and The Next Step

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Well it appears done. T.J. Ford's exit is only slightly less controversial than his entrance, but the diminutive point guard will be suiting up for Indiana next season (along with Rasho Nesterovic and Maceo Baston) while Indiana's six-time All-Star Jermaine O'Neal will make up one-half of Toronto's most potent big-man tandem in franchise history.

At least, that's the hope.

First I was to quickly rehash my reservations on the whole deal, which were softened somewhat with the inclusion of Indiana's 41st pick in the Draft.

This team already had several holes on its roster to fill. By ditching Rasho and Ford, that list increases to include a new backup big and a new backup point guard. As it stands today, the Raptors roster consists of eight players (including O'Neal). It will expand to nine with the imminent re-signing of Jose Calderon and could balloon to ten if the Raptors opt - as I expect they will - to select a usable player with their new second-round draft choice. That still leaves 2-5 spots that need to be filled by, basically, one mid-level exception ($5.5-$6 million) and as many veteran-minimum deals ($1.9-million) as they require. While the team will probably be able to fill out its most dire needs with those options, it is unlikely that they'll be able to upgrade any part of the roster without some heretofore unexplainable creativity.

And make no mistake, even with a fully healthy O'Neal, this team still needs upgrades.

The first, and most well documented in this space, comes on the wing. Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon are fine NBA players, and either one would make a great NBA starter if flanked by more talent alongside on the perimeter. Together, though, they make up one of the meekest starting-swing combos in the NBA. Neither one creates much havoc with his offensive game and neither one demonstrated much stopping power last season as the Raptors were routinely torched by opposing big guards and small forwards. Either would be a punch off of the bench if there was a player on the roster worthy of displacing them in the starting five. Unfortunately there isn't one. In fact, with only Kapono and Joey Graham left on the bench, the team may be forced to resign the ever-inconsistent Carlos Delfino just to avoid cutting into their mid-level exception while fleshing out the roster.

The other issue on the roster is now the fact that Andrea Bargnani and Kris Humphries are the only backup bigs. Period. Even if Jermaine remains relatively healthy all year, he should still only be expected to suit up for about 75 games. If that happens, Andrea slides into the starting five and only Humphries is left to man the bench. Now clearly Colangelo and co. will go about expanding the big-man platoon before the season tips off to avoid just such a scenario, but it's hard to envision a signing that would make an injury to O'Neal anything but devastating to the season's fortunes.

And that of course is the real elephant in the room. If O'Neal isn't fully recovered, or, more likely, experiences a fresh injury, then this trade and the season that proceeds it is probably down the tubes.

However, Colangelo rolled the dice on such a scenario once in acquiring T.J. Ford and his well-storied neck two summers ago and that plan worked out about as well as it could have, and so lets for the time being put a pin in the injury issue until it actually becomes an issue.

I say that because with that 41st pick in toe, I'm starting believe Colangelo might be able to turn this trade into the start of a productive offseason.

First, it does give Toronto the best post tandem in the East, and one of the best in the whole NBA. They now have two big-men capable of putting up 20+ points per game. They now have two legit double-digit rebounding calibre big men, and they also have significantly upped the ante with regards to post defense. O'Neal also represents a more traditional post-scorer, a guy who you can dump the ball to on the blocks and let him operate with his back to the basket. That will be a revelation to a team prone to long stretches of nothing but long jumpers. Also, O'Neal gives the Raptors another threat to get to the free-throw line - where he shoots about 75%. It will be interesting to see what he'll be capable of now that he won't be forced to carry a team's fortunes solely on his back. Divested of the expectation to play above his own ability, he may just be able to regain his form from a couple of years go.

Though, no one is questioning the rationale behind the O'Neal trade if he is capable of returning to his old form. The questions - outside of his health - exist within the rest of the roster.

The reason the 41st pick is so important to my outlook for this trade is the fact that the Raptors can look to acquire an asset in a deep draft without cutting into their mid-level exception. In my opinion, the team will look to pick up a backup point guard to replace Ford, perhaps Washington State's Kyle Weaver, IUPUI's George Hill or Virginia's Sean Singletary. Point guard is a slightly easier and more reliable grab in the second-round because the players that usually wind up there are guys who are ready to step-in and contribute right away but don't have the high ceiling of their first-round counterparts. Think Chris Duhon or Steve Blake.

They'll probably look for a big-man in the 'well-traveled' (i.e. cheap) mold like Brian Skinner, Michael Doleac or Adonal Foyle. They are hardly world-beaters but they are dependable back-ups, good locker room guys and exactly what you want on the bench if a regular rotation player gets injured. Unfortunately, DeSagana Diop is probably now out of their price range.

That leaves the ever-wanting wing spots. And in all likelihood, they'll still be wanting come opening night. It's for this position that the mid-level - in its entirety - should be saved, even if in the end nothing comes of it. WIth the mid-level exception the team can throw a not-insignificant amount of money at free agents like Corey Maggette or James Posey, but they'll likely be either outbid or fall victim to other teams being closer to contention. They could also throw a chunk of money at restricted free agents like Josh Childress or Louis Williams, but they'll likely be matched (if they can entice the player at all).

That leaves either baggage-carriers like Ricky Davis and Bonzi Wells or bench players like Matt Barnes, Kelena Azubuike or Mo Evans. None exactly inspire awe with the potential of their arrival, but the Raptors are going to have round out the roster with someone, and perhaps the limited money available around the league will work in the team's favor this summer. Some teams will be reluctant to spend their mid-level at all, and with the Raptors improving core they may have a shot at unloading their entire mid-level and getting  a starter or sixth-man as a result. If they cannot, then they can divvy up the mid-level on 'next-tier' guys to fill-out the team and nothing was lost in the process.

The bottom line is that the Raptors did address some glaring needs with this trade (size, rebounding, defense, post-scoring, sheer talent) and probably got about as high a return as possible on Ford - a return which has its potential off-set some by the chances of injury. They managed to acquire a low pick in a deep draft to plug a hole on a swiss cheese roster and now have the summer to get creative about finishing the job.

A rotation of Calderon, Parker, Moon, Bosh and O'Neal backed-up by Kapono and Bargnani is not a bad place to start, but it's not amazing, either, and clearly the finish line is still a ways away. If Colangelo and his team have one more rabbit to pull out of their hat, then the gleam on this trade will start to shine brighter, but for now it looks like a promising but ultimately inconclusive move. It's never a bad thing to add a six-time All-Star to your team, but the supporting pieces are going to be just as important in determining his success as a Raptor.