Hockey Chat with Bob McKenzie

Moderator: Welcome, and thank you for taking part in this question and answer session with Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie. Submit your question to the moderator now!

Rick in Eastern Passage, N.S.: How can anyone rationalize the final rankings when they include high school hockey players in the U.S.? Compared to CHL players, they don't have the proven stamina for a long schedule or play against elite talent day in and day out. Some are playing against kids in Junior High, and they are no Sidney Crosbys there! Thoughts?

Bob McKenzie: Rick, No one ever said scouting players was easy and trying to integrate U.S. high schoolers on a list with major junior and/or college players is difficult. But I learned a very long time ago not to be fooled by the fact that a prospect “only” plays U.S. high school hockey and dismiss him because of that. I learned that in the early 1980s when the Buffalo Sabres drafted Phil Housley and Tom Barrasso right out of U.S. high school and they immediately became stars in the NHL. What I realized then is that the league the player plays in isn’t the primary factor; the talent of the players is. Hockey players come in all shapes and sizes and they come from all sort of different leagues and countries. Judge the player, not the league he plays in. It’s difficult sometimes because there’s inherent risk when a prospect hasn’t played against great competition, but Tom Barrasso stepped out of Acton-Boxboro High School in Boston and won the Vezina and Calder Trophies in his first NHL season as a 19 year old. Go figure.

Tyler, Albany, NY: Bob, I find that defencemen generally take longer to develop than forwards, so is there any immediate advantage for a team like the Islanders to take Victor Hedman? I mean, the two players I read he's compared to - Chris Pronger and Jay Bouwmeester - took a few seasons to develop on their own!

Bob McKenzie: There is no question, generally speaking, that most defencemen take longer than forwards to develop and make an impact. But we saw Drew Doughty step into the L.A. Kings’ lineup last season as a rookie and make an instant impact and in a big way, logging big minutes and playing a mature game. Same thing with Luke Schenn in Toronto and, when he wasn’t injured, Zach Bogosian in Atlanta. If the Islanders take Hedman, and my educated guess is that is who they will select on Friday night, I don’t think they’re too worried about the slower development curve for defenceman. Hedman is a mature player, on and off the ice. He’s a man. He has played two seasons of pro hockey in the Swedish Elite League. He has logged significant minutes there and did not look out of place at all. He’s lived on his own for two seasons – actually, he has a live-in girl friend – and he’s recognized by the scouts as the prospect who is “most ready” to step into the NHL and contribute now. It doesn’t hurt that he’s a mobile 6-foot-7 behemoth who, from a developmental point of view, is much further along at the same age than, say, Chris Pronger was. There are bound to be some growing pains for any young player in the NHL and defencemen often experience more of them than forwards, but I don’t think any team, including the Islanders, will be too worried about that with Hedman.

Neil McGillis, Moncton, NB: Hi Bob - I am a die-hard Sens fan and I have been following this year's draft very closely due to Ottawa's high selection position. I see that Kulikov is ranked ninth on your list - I had the chance to see him live this year in Moncton and thought he was dominant! But with Erik Karlsson already in the system, I am hearing a lot of talk that they really like Kadri and possibly Glennie. Do you see them passing on Kulikov if he is still on the board - and choosing a forward instead? Love your work and follow it every year. Thanks!

Bob McKenzie: Neil, the Senators are going to have some wonderfully difficult decisions to make at No. 9. I think it’s safe to say with a high degree of certainty that the top five players – Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Evander Kane and Brayden Schenn – will be off the board by then. That leaves three picks before Ottawa chooses. I think there are five more players in play there – Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jared Cowan, Nazem Kadri, Dmitry Kulikov and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson. I don’t want to say the Senators’ choice is elementary but it seems to me that you simply scratch the three prospects taken at Nos. 6, 7 and 8 and the Senators can decide which of the other remaining top 10 guys they want. If I were a betting man I would say one of Ekman-Larsson or Kulikov or Cowan will be there and one of Kadri or Paajarvi-Svensson will be there. Just a hunch on my part, and it’s highly subject to change because there could be a lot of movement in the eight picks ahead of the Senators, I think the Senators’ choice may come down to Paajarvi-Svensson or Kulikov.

Josh Loucks in Upland, California: Bob, do you think it's a little odd that the Islanders are not coming out and saying who their No. 1 pick is? Last year, there was almost no hype over Steven Stamkos because the Lighting came out and made it very clear early on that he was their No. 1. I have the feeling that it's not going to be John Tavares because there has been no clear indication from their staff. So my question would be what do the Islanders gain from keeping the No. 1 pick a secret? I love the insight, it's always great. Thanks!

Bob McKenzie: Josh, Part of me likes the fact that the Isles have created some suspense and intrigue. I think it’s fun and interesting and all that. Now, having said that, I think there’s a real danger here for the New York Islanders and I don’t feel bad about telling you about it, because I’ve already told Islander GM Garth Snow the same thing last week. Here’s the problem: If the Islanders do not take John Tavares with the No. 1 pick on Friday night, I fear their fan base is going to go nuts. The Islanders will have anywhere from 7,000 to 17,000 fans at a draft part at the Coliseum on Friday night. The reason for the large turnout is because the Islander fans, most of them as near as I can tell, desperately want the team to draft Tavares and fully expect that is going to happen. If it does, great, they all go home happy. But if they take Hedman, which is what I personally think they will do, or Matt Duchene, instead of it being a crowning moment for the Islander franchise and/or Hedman/Duchene, there is a real possibility of a vocal and nasty backlash from the Islanders’ fans. That would be really unfortunate, especially for the player who is taken No. 1. Maybe it will be a moot point because the Isles will take Tavares. But if not, all this secrecy and the shock of not getting Tavares will only intensify the reaction from Islander fans.

Aaron in Lachine, QC: Bob, how much pressure is there on the Canadiens to take a local kid like Leblanc or Despres with the draft in their own backyard? Trevor Timmins has always gone for 'the best player available,' but the trend over the last few years has been taking high schoolers/college kids out of the U.S. (I remember they took Ryan McDonagh and passed over Angelo Esposito a couple of years ago). Is there a fear factor with so many fans in attendance?

Bob McKenzie: Aaron, I don’t know if scouts such as Trevor Timmins succumb to pressure because, as you point out, the mandate is take the best player available, but with the draft back in Montreal, I’m sure the fans would love it they opted for homegrown talent. As you correctly point out, Despres and LeBlanc may be right in the Canadiens’ wheelhouse with the No. 18 pick. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Canadiens step up on either one of them, but that really depends on who gets chosen in the first 17. It’s tough to predict what will happen until we see who falls to 18. I don’t scout players for a living, but I really like a lot of what I hear about LeBlanc. There seem to be a few more flags on Despres in terms of people questioning his hockey sense, but they’re both consensus top 20 picks and I would have to believe at least one of them will be available when the Habs are picking at 18. It should be interesting.

Marc-Philippe L'Abbe - Longueuil, QC: Greetings Bob, why has Jordan Schroeder fallen so much in the rankings? He's now down to 15th!

Bob McKenzie: Marc-Philippe, I wouldn’t say Schroeder has fallen 'so much.' We had him at No. 12 in our mid-season rankings and No. 13 at the time of the draft lottery in mid-April. It’s not like 15 is falling off the face of tearth. So, yes, he’s slipped a bit, but I think he’s maybe been displaced a spot or two by a growing attraction for a player Zack Kassian, the Peterborough Petes’ power forward who has size and toughness that isn’t really prevalent in this draft. Also, guys like Ryan Ellis and Jordan Schroeder have to fight the “size” concern. They’re not very big, although it’s accurate to say Schroeder blew away the physical testing at the NHL Combine. He may be small, but he’s mighty powerful. One other thing to keep in mind about Schroeder. While kids his age are just now graduating from high school, he’s already completed a full year of college hockey. He fast-tracked to get into college so he’s obviously a bright kid and focused and determined. If Schroeder went higher than 15, I wouldn’t be shocked but the 'size' issue is a concern for some scouts and he could slide on that count.

Mark in London, ON: First of all, great work on the Top 60, a very enjoyable read. Anyway, being from London and also a die hard Leaf fan, my question relates to your No. 8, Nazem Kadri. Since the Leafs pick at 7, do you think there is any chance - assuming he can't make a deal to move up - that Brian Burke would take Kadri? My hope is that he does. I have seen enough Knights games to know that this guy is going to be a star in the NHL. In fact, during the recent playoff run he was more consistent than Tavares! Your thoughts, Bob?

Bob McKenzie: Mark, Kadri to the Leafs is a possibility but there are so many variables, it would be foolish to say with any certainty it will happen. If the Leafs are picking at No. 7, and Kadri is still available, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Toronto take him. But also keep in mind that as much as Brian Burke has talked about moving up in the draft, it won’t be a huge surprise if the Leafs drop down either. Damien Cox in the Toronto Star has a good story today, and an accurate one, raising the possibility of the Leafs dropping outside of the top 10 and taking a guy like Peterborough tough guy Zack Kassian, who is clearly Brian Burke’s type of player. That, too, is a possibility, as is the possible drafting of Kadri at No. 7. But Burke will also try to trade up to No. 2, or failing that, perhaps No. 5. If it’s to No. 5, it would appear to be to get Brayden Schenn. So, as you can see, so many possibilities still exist.

Mike Sawan from Laval, QC: Hey Bob, just wondering how you compare this draft with the ones in 2003 and 2005? I understand the one in 2003 was in a class of its own, but do you think this year can match up? Very appreciated, keep up the excellent work!

Bob McKenzie: Mike, honestly, it’s tough to say. I don’t like the branding of one draft a strong one or a weak one. All the drafts, to some degree, are the same. There are great players out there every year. It’s a question of finding them. But a lot of them don’t get picked until the later rounds (see the Detroit Red Wings). We did know 2003 was exceptional at the time, even before that draft and it hasn’t disappointed. I have been reading and hearing a lot about how strong this draft is, but I can only gauge it by the comments I get from the scouts. And this year, I found a lot of scouts being more negative than positive about a lot of the prospects earlier than usual in the rankings. By the time I got to No. 20 in these rankings, the scouts easily had more cons than pros about these prospects. That doesn’t mean the scouts are necessarily right; this is a very inexact science, but it tells me they’re a lot less excited about this year’s class, going into it anyway, than they were a year ago. For what that is worth.

Trey in Denver, CO: With Tavares, Hedman, and Duchene being the unanimous Top 3 selections, is it a given that the Avalanche will take the one that is left of the three?

Bob McKenzie: Trey, I would say yes. Colorado has the easiest job. Take the leftover and the leftovers are pretty darn good in this case. They can’t lose. I don’t imagine they’ll surprise anyone by choosing someone other than Tavares, Hedman or Duchene.

Blake Johnston in Vancouver: Bob, I'm a huge fan of yours. Keep up the good work! About Ryan Ellis...what do you think his time line would be in taking a regular shift in the NHL?

Bob McKenzie: Blake, excellent question, wish I had a precise answer. I talked to a team’s chief scout yesterday who said he doesn’t ever envision Ellis being able to play a top-four role in a five-on-five situation because of his size or lack thereof. There are others I’ve talked to who think, in time (a few years perhaps), he can grow into the role of a regular defender in the NHL. But even if Ellis is slotted as a power-play specialist, many still think he’s worth expending a top 15 on him. Ellis’s puck smarts are terrific, he has the best slapshot of any prospect in the draft and he always seems to have the puck when he’s on the ice. But he’s not very big and, relatively speaking, he’s not a speedster so there is some question as to whether he’ll be able to be a fulltime defender in the NHL. I wish I could give you a more definitive answer but it’s one of the great mysteries of this draft and the scouts themselves aren’t certain as to the answer.

James in Calgary: Hi Bob, your Top 60 is pretty much set, but which player do you think has the potential to go higher than he's expected to be taken (ie. Thomas Hickey, Blake Wheeler). And if teams surprise everyone by taking such players so early, why don't they take advantage and trade down to nab them at a lower spot?

Bob McKenzie: James, I think you may potentially see lots of teams trading down or trying to trade down to get a guy, but this draft, especially once you get outside the top 10 and definitely outside of the top 15, is going to be quite unpredictable. Teams trading down have to be careful or they may miss out on the guy they want and the flip side of that is teams who are thinking of trading up may not pay the prices if they think their choice could fall to them anyway. As for who could jump up, U.S. high schooler Chris Kreider may have a bit of that Blake Wheeler syndrome but I don’t see Kreider or perhaps anyone else cracking the top 10 this year. I will be somewhat surprised if anyone other than a player in TSN’s Top 10 doesn’t go in the Top 10. But I’ve been surprised before and could be surprised again. Louis LeBlanc is another who could leap up a bit.

Ryan Keough in Cape Breton, NS: Which goalie - if any - in this draft would you think has the best potential to be successful in the NHL? The draft looks pretty weak with goalies and there hasn't been much talk about them.

Bob McKenzie: Ryan, it’s possible there will be a goalie taken in the first round, but I personally would be surprised. Same old story, I’m sure some of the goalies from this draft will play in the NHL and play well, but the scouts aren’t overly excited about any one of them. It was very difficult getting any consensus on the goalies. Different teams seem to like different guys. It was all over the map. Plymouth’s Matt Hackett was the consensus No. 1 for us, but I have to tell you, I have zero confidence in the goalie rankings for this year. If one of the guys we didn’t rank in our top 60, say Michael Lee or Olivier Roy, went before the guys we did – Hackett, Bobkov, Lehner and Koskinen – I wouldn’t fall off my chair. There’s certainly no clear-cut No. 1 prospect who will go high in the first round a la Marc Andre Fleury or Carey Price.

Jeff Mayer in Toronto: Bob, it looks like there's a power struggle going on in Tampa! Do you know how this may or may not affect the way they go about their work on Friday?

Bob McKenzie: Jeff, it’s hard to say how things will shake out in Tampa, but unless there’s a dramatic shift in the next few days, the Lightning seem inclined to make a selection with the No. 2 overall pick and not trade Vinny Lecavalier. But that’s as of this moment. Tomorrow? Who knows? The theory out there is that Len Barrie would keep Lecavalier at all costs and Oren Koules would be more in favor of moving him for the right package, but we’ll see if there’s any merit to that. For now, though, we’re operating on the assumption that Lecavalier isn’t going to be moved. As for the second overall pick, that really depends on what the Islanders do. If the Isles take Hedman, it will be interesting to see what offers the Bolts get for the No. 2 pick and what would now be Tavares. We’ll probably know a little more on the Lighning situation later in the day or tomorrow.

Ed Swan, South Korea: Bob, you have contacts with many scouts around the league. Is there any prospect outside the usual names - let's say outside the Top 60 - that scouts are saying, "Watch out for this kid, he'll be something..."

Bob McKenzie: Ed, if they do, they haven’t told me, and probably won’t. LOL. There is one guy generating a little buzz. His name is Alexander Avtsin. Plays for a lower level Moscow Dynamo club team. His stats are ridiculous – 56 goals and 110 points in 76 games – considering Euro stats are usually fairly low in every department from games played to goals. A few scouts suggested he has some dynamic qualities but even the ones we talked to who liked him, said he’s a second rounder, at best, and most of them had him in the third round or later. But there’s seems to be a bit of intrigue and mystery about this guy, so we will see what happens on draft day.

Denny, Powell River, BC: Bob, do you foresee any major movement or trades in the first round on Friday?

Bob McKenzie: Denny, all subject to change, but as of now I don’t see Lecavalier being traded this weekend. As for Dany Heatley, it’s possible but unless the deal involves a pick in the first round on Friday, I don’t think there’s any additional pressure on Bryan Murray to conclude the trade this weekend. That could change, but that’s my sense of it. If Scott Niedermayer tells Anaheim he’s coming back, Chris Pronger goes into play and will be traded and of the big names, I suspect he could go more quickly than the others. Phil Kessel is another guy to keep an eye on. I think Boston will be really challenged to keep him, given their cap situation. San Jose is an interesting team to watch, too. It won’t surprise me if Doug Wilson tries to shuffle the deck there and that could mean a guy like Patrick Marleau will be in play. Otherwise, we could see Florida move Jay Bouwmeester’s rights for a conditional pick. I hate forecasting trades because they’re so hard to get done in today’s NHL, but for the first time in a long time, it looks like more than few teams are eager to make “hockey” trades (players for players).

Chris Jordan in Victoria, BC: Hey Bob, we all know how great of a pic that Milan Lucic turned out to be for the Boston Bruins after he was known as one of the toughest players to be drafted that year. So my question is this - is Zach Kassian from the same mold as Lucic and will he be able to have the same type of positive effect in the NHL as Lucic?

Bob McKenzie: Chris, there is no question Lucic and Kassian are cut from the same cloth. The difference of course is that Lucic went into his draft year with a lot less fanfare than Kassian, who will be a fairly high first-round pick. There are clearly similarities. Kassian really needs to work on his consistency, but the fact he offers a type of player that is in short supply in this draft means he’ll be a hot commodity. I’m sure the Bruins would be the first to admit they’re even a little surprised at how quickly Lucic has developed and the heights to which his game has gone in short order. So there’s no guarantee that Kassian will streak up that quickly but he has the tools to play the same type of game.

Marc Tessier in Shanghai, China: Bob, could you shed some light on how the teams make their picks in the draft? Specifically, I am curious if the scouting department hands the GM a list of a few names, outlining each players' pros and cons, and says take one of these guys. Or, does the GM and scouting department come to a consensus on one player before the GM steps up to the podium? GMs get praised and criticized for the picks they make on draft day and was just wondering if that's completely fair.

Bob McKenzie: Marc, the drafting of players is a long and winding road. Many hours of meetings between the scouts and the management team. They hash out a lot of things at these meetings all season long and by the time the draft arrives, the organization is usually on the same page. They have a list of rankings they’ve done and they generally go by that, but depending upon how high the first round pick is, the GM tends to get more involved and reserves the right to run the show. Generally speaking, though, GMs tend to allow their scouts to call the shots. That isn’t to say there aren’t disagreements or arguments on the draft floor, especially when a prospect who no one thought would be there when that team was picking. Generally speaking, though, the vast majority of the homework has been done days and weeks before the draft and while it’s an oversimplification, most teams stick to the list they’ve prepared.

Steve in Brandon, MB: Bob, in your years of covering/working at the draft, do you have any memorable draft day moments (on and off camera)?

Bob McKenzie: Steve, they are too numerous to mention. Twenty-five years ago, in Montreal as fate would have it, I’ll never forget Mario Lemieux getting drafted No. 1 overall and refusing to put on the Penguins’ sweater because he didn’t like how contract negotiations were going. That was the same year the Canadiens brought out surprise pick Petr Svoboda and the fans at the Forum went nuts. It was quite a dramatic day. I still laugh when I think about Pierre McGuire going off on the New York Islanders for NOT taking Zach Parise and drafting Robert Nilsson instead and then Isles' P.R. guy Chris Botta, who is a great guy and very funny to boot, calling up to our platform and asking Gord Miller if he could get Pierre to cool it a little. I also remember the draft in Quebec City, when it was so unbelievably hot. We were on for three hours and I had to drink a lot of water because it was just steamy in Le Colisee. Well, you know what happens when you drink a lot of water on a hot day. But there was no break long enough to allow me to get to the washroom. The last hour of that show was the most excruciating 60 minutes. Painful. Worst ever. Well, I suppose it could have been worse. LOL. In any case, I could go on and on and on. The draft is one of my favorite events of the year, in part because I’ve always liked the draft and the atmosphere of everybody in hockey being in the same place at the same time in a convention type setting. But I’m not going to lie. I also like the draft because it’s very close to the end of my work year and I’m about a week away from a nice, long vacation. :)

Bob McKenzie: To everyone who submitted a question or checked in on this internet chat, thanks very much. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did. But it’s time to hit the road to Montreal. Enjoy the draft, it should be fun. Thanks.

Moderator: This concludes our question and answer session with TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie. Be sure to take part in an online chat with TSN Hockey Analyst Pierre McGuire, Wednesday at 1pm et/10am pt. Also, TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger will take part in an online chat on Thursday at 2pm et.