If you go strictly by the numbers, it's an empty-net tap in - John Tavares should be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NHL entry draft.
In its annual survey of 10 NHL scouts, the London Knights' goal-scoring centre is TSN's unanimous No. 1 ranked prospect, getting 10 of a possible 10 first-place votes to head up TSN's Top 60 Final Rankings for the 2009 NHL entry draft.
But the New York Islanders have their own ideas on whom they will choose with the top pick and have been adamant about not revealing anything to anyone until the moment general manager Garth Snow steps to the podium to make the announcement on the draft floor of the Bell Centre in Montreal on Friday night. While it's entirely possible they'll choose Tavares, it's well within the realm of possibility that they will take Swedish defenceman Victor Hedman or Brampton Battalion centre Matt Duchene.
"It's a lot closer than your numbers (10 of 10) might suggest," said one team's NHL chief scout who ranked Tavares No. 1. "There's not a huge gap between Tavares and the other two guys (Hedman and Duchene). I have Tavares at No. 1 but it's not a stretch for me or anyone else, I would think, to make a case for Hedman as the top guy. Or even Duchene, especially the way he came on at the end of the year.
"They're completely different players. Tavares is a goal scorer. Hedman is a defenceman. They're both going to be great players but the Islanders may want more of what one guy gives them in terms of building the team. Duchene is a complete player with character. It's going to be interesting."
Indeed.
But for the purposes of TSN rankings, the numbers are the numbers. And Tavares is No. 1.
"I don't know what else (Tavares) could have done," one scout said. "I mean, he has played four full seasons of major junior hockey. He's been poked and prodded and analyzed and dissected maybe more than any prospective No. 1 pick in the history of the game. I hear people question his skating or defensive play, but he's an elite level scorer who does his best work when the game is on the line. He's stepped up to be the hero for Canada in two consecutive World Junior Championships and delivered in pressure packed situations. Enough already. He's the top guy."
But the final call on that goes to the Islanders, and they're enjoying keeping their selection a secret until the last minute.
If they take Tavares, there'll be no explanation necessary. He's the consensus No. 1 and has been all season long.
If, however, they opt for Hedman or Duchene, there will be many Islander fans who believe an explanation is in order. It would be fair to say Islander fans have been clamoring for Snow to choose Tavares.
Hedman is a solid No. 2 in the TSN rankings and Duchene is equally firm at No. 3.
Nine of 10 scouts pegged Hedman at No. 2 and one had him at No. 3. That was the same lone scout who ranked Duchene at No. 2. Eight others had the Brampton centre at No. 3 and one put him at No. 4.
"I have to believe they (Tavares, Hedman and Duchene) are guaranteed to be the first three players taken," another scout said, "but I wouldn't want to be betting any money on which order they'll go. Colorado (picking No. 3 after the Islanders at No. 1 and Tampa Bay at No. 2) probably has the easiest job – take whichever one is left over."
The only other prospect who got a vote in the top three is Vancouver Giant forward Evander Kane, TSN's No. 4 ranked player, but it was a solitary vote putting him ahead of Duchene on one scout's list.
Brandon forward Brayden Schenn rounds out TSN's top five.
Swedish defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larson is No. 6, followed by Spokane defenceman Jared Cowen at No. 7, London Knight forward Nazem Kadri at No. 8, Russian defenceman Dmitri Kulikov of Drummondville at No. 9 and Swedish winger Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson at No. 10.
There is an air of unpredictability to this year's draft and TSN's rankings. Last year, of the 30 players TSN ranked as first rounders, 27 actually went in the first round. There's an excellent chance the batting average will not be so high this year.
It would be a surprise of sorts if the top 10 ranked players don't actually get selected in the top 10, but the draft will likely open up significantly after that.
If one of TSN's top 10 prospects were to be unseated, it's likely to be by one of the five players ranked from Nos. 11 to 15 – Brandon forward Scott Glennie; Windsor defenceman Ryan Ellis; Chicago Steel (USHL) defenceman John Moore; Peterborough Petes tough guy forward Zack Kassian and University of Minnesota forward Jordan Schroeder. Those prospects are solid first-rounders who could conceivably creep into the top 10 and if they fall out of the top 15, it shouldn't be too far.
But beyond the 15th pick, this draft looks as though it's wide open.
Consensus was far more difficult to obtain this year than it has been in years. Most of the players ranked from 16 to 30 had at least one or more scouts who ranked them as second-round material. On the flip side, prospects whose final ranking is as low as No. 50 got some degree of first-round consideration.
In other words, the stretch between, say the 20th pick and the 40th pick could be wildly unpredictable. Which is another way of saying some highly-touted prospects who believe they will be first rounders could be going back to their hotel room in Montreal on Friday night bitterly disappointed and awaiting the resumption of the draft from rounds two through seven on Saturday morning and afternoon.
If there's a trend that emerges in the 2009 draft it is likely to be the Year of the Swede.
Hedman, of course, has a chance to be taken first overall but even if he isn't, he could be one of at least six Swedish first rounders. TSN's rankings have six Swedes in the first round – Hedman at No. 2, Ekman-Larson at No. 6, Paajarvi-Svensson at No. 10, forward Jacob Josefson at No. 16, defenceman David Rundblad at No. 21 and defenceman Tim Erixon at No. 28 – and at least three in the second round who have a legitimate shot of being taken in the first – forward Marcus Johnasson at No. 33, forward Carl Klingberg at No. 34 and goaltender Robin Lehner at No. 47.
It is fair to say it's not the Year of the Goaltender. TSN doesn't have a single goalie ranked in the top 30. That isn't to say one couldn't be taken their based on team need, but the scouts surveyed by TSN were muted in their enthusiasm for this year's goaltending crop. And while the scouts agreed there are no "elite" goalie prospects in the mold of Marc Andre Fleury or Carey Price, they really seemed to have difficulty agreeing on which goalies had separated themselves from the pack.
TSN's first ranked goalie is Plymouth's Matt Hackett, the nephew of former NHL goalie Jeff Hackett, at No. 43. Russian goalie Igor Bobkov is next at No. 45, followed by the Swede Lehner at No. 47 and Finnish netminder Mikko Koskinen at No. 48. A number of goalies – Fargo's Mike Lee, Saginaw's Edward Pasquale and Cape Breton's Olivier Roy, amongst others – were just outside of TSN's Top 60, but if they were to be taken ahead of any of the ranked goalies, it would come as no surprise. There really is that little consensus on the goalies this year.
That's also true of the skaters as well.