Evaluating the Jays at the halfway point

Steve Phillips

TSN Baseball Insider

Archive

Although the All-Star game is often referred to as the halfway point of the season, it really isn’t. In fact, we have just reached the midpoint as the Toronto Blue Jays played their 81st game of the season on Wednesday evening in New York. Typically, this is a good time to take stock in where a team is in relation to its expectations. It is difficult to hand out grades for a rebuilding franchise considering the expectations for wins and losses are low. Plus, with many young players the likelihood is that they will have nearly as many tough days as good days. The early years of the rebuilding process are not about winning games, but rather answering questions about players and their growth and improvement.

Championship teams have certain ingredients and the goal during the rebuilding process is to find as many of those as possible from within the organization so that the needs to be filled from the outside are minimal. Not all roles are equal. Some are more important than others and are more difficult to find as championship-calibre solutions.

In a very simplified explanation, the first five hitters in a lineup have to be of a certain level of quality and have the production to be considered a playoff contender. They need to have the ability to get on base and slug the baseball for the necessary run production. It is easier to find hitters to fill the 6-9 spots in the lineup and they are more affordable if they have to be traded for or signed in free agency. Playoff contenders in the AL need to have length, depth and preferably balance (right/left) to get enough runs from every position in the lineup. If the offence isn’t as good as other clubs, then a contender makes up for it in pitching and defence. 

Winning teams typically have impact pitchers in three of the five slots in the rotation. This is not to minimize the importance of the 65 or so starts that are made by the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation, but those roles are much easier to fill in an affordable way. 

The depth and quality of a bullpen depends upon the overall calibre of the rotation. However, a quality bullpen needs an impact closer, an 8th inning set-up man and several other quality pitchers that can handle high leverage situations in the 6th and 7th innings, including a combination of left-handers and right-handers.      

Defensively, a championship team has to have a quality defensive catcher to handle a pitching staff, as well as solid defenders all around the field. Winning teams don’t have to have quality defenders at every position, as sometimes you have to sacrifice a little bit on the defensive end to get additional offence, but as a team you want the defence to be above-average.       

When Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins lay out their plans for the future, they look at their roster and evaluate what future roles are to be filled from current Blue Jays. Here is how I see it as of today:

The players who will fill key roles on the Jays’ next playoff contending team are as follows:

Offence-Definites

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a starting 3B who can bat 2nd or 3rd in the lineup.

Cavan Biggio is a starting 2B/OF who can bat 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the lineup.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a starting left fielder who can bat 2nd, 5th or 6th in the lineup.

Offence-Maybes

Rowdy Tellez may be a starting 1B who can bat 5th or 6th in the lineup.

Randal Grichuk may be a starting RF who can bat 6th or 7th in the lineup.

Danny Jansen may be a starting C who bats 7th or 8th.

Pitching-Definites

Starting Pitching

Marcus Stroman is a #3 starter on a playoff contender (Jays control his contract through the 2020 season)

Relievers

Ken Giles is a closer on a playoff contender.

Joe Biagini is a solid 7th inning option.

The Jays are going to need to find a lead-off hitter, a clean-up hitter, a shortstop, several starters and key relievers. These are the players who have presented themselves as answers so far, but it doesn’t mean that other current players can’t emerge as key pieces on a playoff contender, but they have to show improved consistent performance.  

The second half of the season is going to be as painful as the first part. Maybe more. The club will likely trade Stroman and Giles since they won’t be controlled by the team by the time they are ready to contend again. Trades make sense with only one year of control remaining for them beyond this season. There is a chance that Freddy Galvis could be moved at the trade deadline as well, especially if a team loses a shortstop to injury. Eric Sogard could be a solution for a team looking for a super-sub spark plug. This group are veteran stabilizers who are among the most consistent Jays. If they get traded, then the team becomes very immature and inexperienced. 

It is likely that the Jays end up with over 100 losses this season. 

What's going on with the Mets?

The New York Mets won’t lose that many games but it has been a complete disaster so far for them. They have the third worst record in the NL. This was after their brash new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen declared they were the team to beat in the off-season. Last week, the front office fired the pitching and bullpen coaches. On the weekend, manager Mickey Callaway misunderstood what a writer said to him after a tough loss in which he was challenged for his bullpen usage, lost his cool and verbally attacked the writer, demanding the Mets' PR staff remove the writer from the clubhouse. Starting pitcher Jason Vargas heard the confrontation and stared down the writer, and advanced toward him in anger, having to be held back by teammates. It got ugly. Ownership apologized to the writer on behalf of the organization. The club fined their manager and pitcher as Callaway and Vargas met with the writer to make amends. 

Since then, the Mets haven’t won a game. They went to Philadelphia and got swept in devastating fashion as the bullpen gave up 17 runs in 11.1 innings pitched in the series. The worst defeat came on Thursday when they took a 3-1 lead into the top of the ninth only to see their closer Edwin Diaz allow five runs on two homers and lose the game 6-3. 

It just seems like things always go wrong for the Mets. There is always some drama or some issue. Callaway has used up all of his margin for error. He is clearly on the hot seat and it was made hotter by his attack on the beat writer. I don’t see the talent for things to turn around in New York. At this rate, Callaway won’t survive the season. 

One of the knocks on the Mets' manager has been his usage of the bullpen. He has been reluctant to use Diaz for more than a three-out save and the media seems to think that he is wrong not to do so. Diaz was a big off-season acquisition from the Seattle Mariners in the deal with Robinson Cano. The young closer was dominating with a career year in 2018, saving 57 of 61 games. This season, he already has four blown saves surrendering seven homers after only giving up five the entire season last year. As a team, the Mets have 20 blown saves. 

As if the bullpen failures and confrontation with the beat writer wasn’t enough, reports began circulating that the Mets' front office was reaching out to Callaway during games and telling him what moves to make. Specifically on June 1, the Mets were playing the Diamondbacks in Arizona, and Jacob deGrom was pitching. During the game, as Van Wagenen was watching on television from his home in Connecticut, he noticed his ace (and former client) limping a bit on the mound. Reports indicate that Van Wagenen immediately called to speak to a trainer and ordered that deGrom be removed from the game. 

The general manager didn’t deny making phone calls when there were health issues for his team, but he did deny ever making calls to the dugout to make in-game personnel decisions. I tend to believe him. Every general manager would call the road clubhouse to speak to someone about an injured player. The trainer and coaching staff on-site will know what to do regarding removing a player from the game. The general managers will call for information because if there is an injury where a player might need to go in the injured list, he will have to be replaced with a call-up from the minor leagues. The responsibility of putting that in motion belongs to the general manager.

It is just funny how when things aren’t going well for the major league team, everybody assumes the worst. Managers hear things that aren’t there in conversations. Players have long-memories and a hypersensitivity about what is said and written about them.  Hands-on executives get accused of manipulation and micro-managing. Problems on winning teams develop character and chemistry, while on bad teams it creates descension.

It just feels good that I can’t get blamed for any of the Mets' problems.

Spitting Seeds

-News last week of a potential two-city plan for the Tampa Bay Rays that would include Montreal as a sister city has made the idea of baseball there feel real again. To further that notion, make sure you check out the throwback jerseys the Washington Nationals will wear on July 6 in their game against the Kansas City Royals. They will feature the powder blue jersey and pants and wear the tri-colour caps that they wore in their inaugural season of 1969. I love those jerseys. I wonder what the 2028 Expos will wear when the Rays franchise moves full-time to Montreal. Yes, that is a prediction.

-The Yankees finally got all of their injured sluggers back in the lineup and now they don’t. Giancarlo Stanton (bicep) and Aaron Judge (oblique) were finally activated off the injured list and all seemed right with the Bronx Bombers. But on Tuesday, Stanton slid head first into third base on a play and sprained the posterior cruciate ligament in his knee. He is likely going to be out until August. For those who wondered why the Yankees traded for Edwin Encarnacion, you now have the answer. He is protection for a situation just like the loss of Stanton. 

-The Yankees and Red Sox will be playing a two-game series in London this weekend. They are the first regular season games ever played there. The home runs will likely be sailing out of the ballpark because the dimensions of the facility only allow a centre field fence at 385 feet. It will be 330 feet down the lines. It will be the shortest stadium in baseball to centre field, however the gaps will be a bit deeper than a normal stadium. Overall, there are only three other stadiums with less area to cover in the outfield. This will be a great event and will help further develop a fan base in Europe, especially if they like scoring.

-The new All-Star voting format of a primary election to identify the top three at each position, followed by a starters’ election day is a ringing success. The new system did a much better job of awarding the best players at each position with a starting role instead of making the vote a popularity contest. The only player who has a bit of a gripe is Pirates first baseman Josh Bell, who was edged out by Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman. There is no doubt the Freeman is worthy but Bell has had a slightly better season so far. Bell will likely make the team anyway when reserves get announced on Sunday.

-All is right with baseball again. Dallas Keuchel got his first win as a member of the Braves on Wednesday and Craig Kimbrel earned his first save for the Cubs on Thursday. The two veteran pitchers waited until after the June draft to sign when draft pick compensation was no longer attached. In his second start with Atlanta, Keuchel induced 11 ground ball outs and benefited from three double plays to get out of trouble. Kimbrel gave up a double and a walk in the 9th inning win over the Braves, but got out of trouble when he was able to get Freeman to ground out to Anthony Rizzo.  Both guys are going to have a big impact on their new teams. 

-The St. Louis Cardinals got some bad news on Monday as they announced that their flame-throwing closer Jordan Hicks has a torn UCL and will need Tommy John surgery. The procedure was performed on Wednesday. Hicks has the most pitches thrown over 100+ MPH, including the 21 fastest pitches. He has topped out at 104.3 mph this year. I guess the arm isn’t built for this kind of effort. 

The Cardinals will likely go to former-starter-turned-reliever Carlos Martinez to close games out in the 9th inning moving forward. 

-Let me be the first to wish you a Happy Bobby Bonilla Day. On July 1, Bonilla will receive his annual payment from the Mets of $1.19 million as part of a deferred payment deal my Mets team made with him in 2000. Bonilla was due to receive $5.9 million that season but instead we wanted to release him. So, we worked out a deferred compensation deal where the club held on to his money for ten years, then starting in 2011, Bonilla would receive a $1.19 million payment on July 1 for the next 25 years. That’s right, his $5.9 million was deferred at 8% interest leading to a total of $29.8 million when he receives his final payment in 2035.

-At the time of the arrangement, the Mets had Bernie Madoff as their investment advisor. Madoff is now serving a 150-year sentence for a multi-billion-dollar Ponzi scheme that came tumbling down in 2008. It was the relationship with Madoff that led to the deferred compensation deal. Mets' ownership suffered incredible losses from the Madoff debacle, and part of the fallout is setting aside money for Bonilla every year through 2035.