2010 Playoff Payoff

by Scott Cullen, TSN.ca

Playoff hockey is less than a week away, which means it's time to start looking ahead and making plans to win your playoff pool.

Unless your pool has quirky rules or is of unusual size, there is no need to try and re-invent the wheel when developing a drafting strategy -- just try to pick players from the four teams you think will reach the Conference Finals; that will give them enough games to make a significant statistical contribution.

While this year's playoff race seems a little more open than in previous years, there will naturally be a tendency for players from top teams like Washington, Chicago and last year's finalists, Detroit and Pittsburgh, to get snapped up quickly.

That means finding value in the next tier of teams after committing to a couple of favourites. Perhaps a team like the Canucks, Devils or the perrenially underachieving Sharks can provide better value once the players from elite teams have been selected.

When it comes to picking players, there are a few simple guidelines.

First off, be aware of injuries. Teams are notorious for being vague or even downright dishonest regarding injuries at this point in the season, but you may want to avoid, or at least decrease the value of, guys who are already going into the postseason with injuries.

Right now, the list of injured players that might be considered playoff pool worthy includes Marc Savard, Tim Connolly, Jochen Hecht, Brian Campbell, Peter Mueller, Patric Hornqvist, Filip Kuba, Jeff Carter, Chris Kunitz, Christian Ehrhoff and Brendan Morrison.

The cardinal rule: Don't pick players that face each other in the first round. There's no point in limiting your potential number of games played right out of the gate.

Don't ignore the 6, 7, 8 seeds. Generally, it's better to get the first or second scoring option on a lower seed, particularly one with a decent shot at an upset, than to start reaching for third-liners on a top-seeded team. For example, in last year's playoffs, the Anaheim Ducks pulled off an upset and Ryan Getzlaf scored 18 points (fifth in the entire playoffs) in just two rounds.

Don't be afraid to double-up on line combinations, so that you can score multiple points on single goals. If you like Red Wings star Henrik Zetterberg, perhaps you can snag linemate Valtteri Filppula a few rounds later to maximize the impact on Detroit's goals.

Also, don't be afraid to make a sleeper pick late in the draft. It's hard to predict from where the next Max Talbot or Ruslan Fedotenko will emerge, but I'll take a shot with some deep sleeper picks on each team's list. If you happen to hit a home run with your last pick, it could provide a real boost.

Given these basic plans, the following team lists will provide information to help organize your drafting priorities. Each player listed has their points per game listed and that's a general value to start with.

Then, look at what the player has done since the beginning of January, basically the second half of the season (under the '2010' heading). If the point totals are higher, maybe it's a young player who is just starting to peak, or a veteran whose playing situation changed due to trade. In either case, it's usually preferable to get a player who is more productive now, as opposed to one that fattened up his scoring totals in October and November.

The third rate included for each player is their NHL career playoff scoring average. In the vast majority of situations, that number will be lower than the others because the playoffs are tighter checking games that involve the best teams. By no means should previous playoff production eliminate a player from consideration, but if a player has made a career of under-performing in the postseason, maybe you'd like to let someone else take that risk or wait an extra round or two before pulling the trigger.

Power plays rule the postseason so make sure your roster is chock full of players who get time with the man advantage. Power play defencemen, in particular, have more value in the postseason so don't let these players slip by you in the middle-to-later rounds of the draft. Power play point totals are included as a general guide for which players are most likely to get those man advantage opportunities.

Teams are listed in my personal order of priority, though that seems to change with every game and every injury report, so consider it as a rough guide if need be.

Finally, check out the Fantasy Hockey Report playoff editions, which will include players to target and avoid heading into the postseason.

Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@ctv.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen.

Here is TSN.ca's 2010 NHL Playoff Payoff:
(Stats through games of 4/6/10)

WASHINGTON CAPITALS

DETROIT RED WINGS

VANCOUVER CANUCKS

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

SAN JOSE SHARKS

NEW JERSEY DEVILS

LOS ANGELES KINGS

PHOENIX COYOTES

BUFFALO SABRES

MONTREAL CANADIENS

NASHVILLE PREDATORS

OTTAWA SENATORS

NEW YORK RANGERS

COLORADO AVALANCHE

BOSTON BRUINS

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

Welcome to TSN Predictor: Playoff Edition presented by Kia. Simply build the highest consecutive point streak during the playoffs and you could take home an all-new 2014 Rondo! It's that simple. Pick smart. Win Big.