Columnist image

TSN Soccer Analyst

| Archive

Antonio Conte looked dejected.

“Bad result, bad performance,” reflected the Italian following a thumping 3-0 defeat at Arsenal in September. It would turn out to be his most difficult postgame press conference of the season.

He had inherited a team that produced the worst title defence in the Premier League era. Only Six games into their new season, they already needed goals in the last 10 minutes to beat West Ham and Watford and earn a draw against Swansea City. Now rivals Liverpool and Arsenal had comprehensively beaten them in the space of eight days.

It was time for words to be carefully chosen and for the rest of us to carefully listen.

“We must reflect a lot," Conte said. "It is important to understand we must work a lot to improve. We are a great team on paper, but not on the pitch. I now have to find the right balance. We must have last season in our mind to not repeat the mistakes. We need to find very soon the right way.”

They would. This was where Chelsea won the league. Conte found the right balance, moving his team to a 3-4-3 shape that helped his side find the fast lane and a top gear that would obliterate the rest of the league on their way to securing a magnificent 93 points.

Branislav Ivanovic played every minute of the first six games; Oscar started five of the first six. Neither started a game for Chelsea again. John Terry started each of the first four, but then played just six minutes as a sub during their title challenge over seven months. Victor Moses and Marcos Alonso were given their first starts of the season in game number seven at Hull, a 2-0 victory that started a remarkable 13-game winning streak. At the end of September, they trailed Manchester City by eight points. By the halfway stage – New Year’s Eve – they led them by six. Never again would they be caught.

After the loss at Arsenal, Chelsea’s 3-4-3 juggernaut would win 25 of their next 30 games en route to the Premier League title, conceding just 20 goals during that run. From October 1st to March 4th, they didn’t concede a right-footed goal from open play.

Like Leicester City last season, Conte found the platform for success and it all came down to stability. For the second successive season, a team lost heavily to Arsenal in their final match of September and hit the reset button that would help them win the Premier League title. Last season after their seventh game, Claudio Ranieri abandoned the idea of starting Ritchie De Laet, Gokhan Inler and Andy King in games, trusting Danny Simpson, Christian Fuchs and N’Golo Kante to be regular starters instead.

What followed was a remarkable run of consistency in the next 30 games, from the start of October to the time Andrea Bocelli joined them on the pitch to lift the trophy following the win over Everton. During that run Simpson (29), Robert Huth (28), Wes Morgan (30), Fuchs (29), Danny Drinkwater (27), Kante (29), Riyad Mahrez (28), Marc Albrighton (28), Shinji Okazaki (22) and Jamie Vardy (29) combined to start in 279 of 300 spots (93 per cent).

Conte went one better. He made just 31 line-up changes to the 343 in the 30 games book-ended by wins at Hull and West Brom. For the 300 outfield starting spots available in his starting XI, 10 players took up a staggering 280 of them (93.3 per cent).

Like Ranieri last season, everyone knew Conte’s preferred XI and, without any games in Europe, he had the luxury of time to pick it most weeks. Cesar Azpilicueta, David Luiz and Gary Cahill started every game together during that run and, with the exception of Cahill coming off six minutes before the end of the 5-0 win over Everton, played every minute together as a back three (2694 of 2700 minutes – 99.8 per cent).

Wing-backs Marcos Alonso (29 starts of 30) and Victor Moses (28 of 30) flourished in the system, staying high and wide to bring width and create spaces inside where others benefited. Player of the Year N’Golo Kante (27 of 30) took the pressure off Nemanja Matic (23 of 30) defensively and - when the pair needed a little more attacking flair - Cesc Fabregas (only 11 of 30 starts) was preferred in central midfield.

Eden Hazard rediscovered his form from two seasons ago and was arguably the best attacking player in the league (28 of 30 starts) and was complimented by the brilliant menace Diego Costa (28 of 30) and Pedro Rodriguez (25 of 30) whose performances kept Willian out of the side and much more reflected the player who was excellent at Barcelona after last season’s struggles.

Despite not finding their best XIs until the start of October, the two Italian bosses continued a noticeable trend when looking at the past champions in terms of lack of rotation. During a full season, a Premier League manager has 380 outfield spots to fill when selecting starting XIs for 38 league matches. For the purpose of this study, goalkeepers – who are rarely rotated and are much more likely to start all games than outfield players – were omitted. The following is the combined number of starts in the last 10 seasons used by the 10 most common starters during a title-winning campaign.
 

THE STABILITY OF CHAMPIONS

SEASON TEAM COMBINED OUTFIELD STARTS
2016-2017  Chelsea  328/380 (86.3%) 
2015-2016  Leicester City  335/380 (88.1%) 
2014-2015  Chelsea  322/380 (84.7%) 
2013-2014  Manchester City  273/380 (71.8%) 
2012-2013  Manchester United  259/380 (68.1%) 
2011-2012  Manchester City  283/380 (74.4%) 
2010-2011  Manchester United  252/380 (66.3%) 
2009-2010 Chelsea  280/380 (73.6%) 
2008-2009   Manchester United 260/380 (68.4%) 
2007-2008  Manchester United  293/380 (77.1%) 

The last three seasons are remarkable statistical outliers. For example, when Manchester United won five titles in seven seasons from 2006 to 2013, their average starts per season for their 10 most-used outfield players was 267 and four times out of the five that number was between 259 and 269.

Rarely does a Premier League champion not play any games in Europe and it is clear that the last 10 champions' total competitive games played plays a major part in the numbers above.
 

THE TRIALS OF CHAMPIONS

SEASON TEAM GAMES PLAYED
2016-2017 Chelsea  47 
2015-2016  Leicester City 43
2014-2015  Chelsea  54
2013-2014  Manchester City  57 
2012-2013   Manchester United 54
2011-2012  Manchester City  54 
2010-2011  Manchester United 59 
2009-2010   Chelsea 55 
2008-2009  Manchester United  62 
2007-2008  Manchester United  56 

Chelsea finished 10th last season and suffered significantly from the lack of squad depth two years ago that affected them in their defence. Hazard admitted recently to the BBC that fitness, along with motivation, played a part in their poor form in 2015-2016.

Leicester last season and Chelsea this season benefited from no European competition, as well as a run without any significant injuries and, in some cases, you can make the point that both can be linked.

Michi Batschuayi’s goal at West Brom in Game 36 clinched the league, but the man who cost £33 million didn’t start a game until nine changes were made – once the mission was complete – for their 37th game against Watford.

In total, only 13 players made double-digit starts for Chelsea, continuing a noticeable trend over the past three seasons:
 

DOUBLE-DIGIT STARTERS

SEASON TEAM PLAYERS WITH 10 OR MORE STARTS
2016-2017  Chelsea 13 
2015-2016  Leciester City 12 
2014-2015  Chelsea  11 
2013-2014  Manchester City  16 
2012-2013  Manchester United  16 
2011-2012  Manchester City  15 
2010-2011  Manchester United  17 
2009-2010  Chelsea  16 
2008-2009  Manchester United  17 
2007-2008   Manchester United 14 

It was a season billed as the race between world-class managers. Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho spent the year finding more than they ever could have known about their team’s vulnerabilities and - without European football to distract him - Conte found the formula in October, securing the foundation for success seven months later.