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The idea of the Toronto Blue Jays getting back into postseason contention this year doesn’t seem realistic to many.

Through another winter of tinkering and toying with an aging roster that’s waiting for a wave of potential impact bats to arrive in the majors, the Jays’ front office is adamant what they’ve put together – stuck with might be a better way of phrasing it ­–has a chance to contend.

The projections do not disagree.

Currently, FanGraphs has the Blue Jays as an 84-win team, eight games better than the 76-86 record they finished with last season.

In the American League pecking order, that has them behind the Houston Astros (98 wins), Cleveland Indians (93), New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox (91 apiece), and the Los Angeles Angels (88).

Take any projection model with a grain of salt, obviously, but this scenario has the Jays sitting four games back of Shohei Ohtani & Co. for the final wild-card berth when all is said and done.

In fact, the Ohtani acquisition is pretty much the reason for that gap, as the Japanese sensation is projected for a 3.1-win season.

What does all of this mean for the Blue Jays?

For one, it means the season shouldn’t be completely written off just because there are four other teams in the AL that look a whole lot better on paper.

If the options are turnaround or teardown, rolling the dice on the former is the right call to start the 2018 season, and not just to keep record numbers of fans streaming through the gates at Rogers Centre.

A couple of years ago, the chance to play in a wild-card game would’ve been more than enough to define a successful season when the playoffs hadn’t been seen in two decades.

It also means GM Ross Atkins still has work to do, and the slow free-agent market is giving him an opening to do what he hasn’t yet done in his 26 months on the job - make a splashy move.

Over the course of the last year or so, he’s tried.

They attempted to sign outfielder Dexter Fowler last off-season, a player that would’ve cost them in the neighbourhood of $70 million.

They were interested in a similar player at a similar price this winter in Lorenzo Cain.

Christian Yelich was also sought after on the trade market until it involved dealing the leader of the aforementioned wave of impact bats, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

It’s been a whole lot of swing and miss.

But if the Blue Jays truly fancy themselves pseudo-contenders in 2018, the area where the Jays could really make a dent in that projection-based, four-game gap is in the rotation.

The current group could be described as solid, but like the rest of the roster, littered with what ifs.

Marcus Stroman should provide his 200 quality innings.

J.A. Happ spun a 2.81 ERA in his final 11 starts last year to put his early-season elbow troubles behind him. He’s pitching for a new contract, too.

Marco Estrada will also be motivated heading into the final year of his deal, and the 34-year-old turned around his own tough season last year in the second half to ease concerns the league had figured the soft-tosser out.

Then the real questions start.

The health of Aaron Sanchez could make or break the season. If he’s the dominant pitcher we saw in 2016, there’s a good chance meaningful games will be played in the second half of September.

If not, well, the trade deadline will be interesting.

Joe Biagini is holding down the fifth spot in the rotation, and while there’s optimism both inside and outside the organization that he can at least provide marginally-better-than-replacement-level innings, that’s the current ceiling for the big right-hander who’s coming off a 5.73 ERA in 18 starts.

There are players available that could continue Atkins’ depth-themed off-season.

Names like Chris Tillman, a player the Jays were rumoured to have interest in recently, Jason Vargas, Jaime Garcia, Jeremy Hellickson and Andrew Cashner would all provide better track records than Biagini, but little in the way of upside or significant improvement.

With somewhere in the neighbourhood of $10 to $15 million left to spend, however, the Jays should be angling for one of the four names that could truly help turn them into a contender not only for 2018, but for the next couple of seasons as the young position players start to arrive.

Luring one of Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta may not be a realistic possibility with the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers and now the New York Yankees all jockeying for position with five-year deals in hand, but when the dust settles on the top two free-agent pitchers, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will also find homes.

When the off-season began, MLB Trade Rumors pegged Lynn’s next contract at four years for $56 million.

Cobb was in the same range at four years and $48 million.

Wouldn’t you know it: The AAV on both of those projections would be able to squeeze in right at the top of Atkins’ presumed budget.

If you really want a dose of optimism, maybe it’s even less when the frozen free-agent market finally thaws.

They’d both be impactful additions behind Stroman and Sanchez, and there isn’t a whole lot separating Lynn and Cobb.

They’re both 30. They’re both right-handers.

And each one is a recent Tommy John survivor, with Cobb sitting out the 2015 season and most of 2016, while Lynn was sidelined for all of 2016.

Both were good but not great last season – a 3.66 ERA for Cobb, a 3.43 ERA for Lynn – and more is expected out of both this year as they’re another year removed from surgery.

Statistically, Lynn has pitched to a 3.39 ERA in 161 career starts, accumulating 14.9 fWAR.

Cobb has 10.5 fWAR in 115 career starts and a 3.50 ERA.

While Lynn has provided more durability over his career with five seasons of 175 or more innings, Cobb’s experience within the AL East can’t be overlooked.

In 12 starts against the Baltimore Orioles, he’s got a 2.70 ERA. In 14 starts against the Boston Red Sox, it’s 3.43. Even better against the New York Yankees at 2.99 in 14 outings.

The former Tampa Bay Rays hurler was pretty good against the Jays, too, at 3.23 in eight career starts.

It remains to be seen if the Jays will throw all of their remaining resources in one basket or be content continuing to add depth in multiple areas, but the opportunity to add an impact arm to a pitching staff for nothing but cash in February is rare and shouldn’t be dismissed if contention is the sincere goal.