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TSN Soccer Analyst

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Jose Mourinho could only smile. He didn’t want to be drawn into a conversation about whether or not his Chelsea team could go the entire Premier League season undefeated.

“At the moment we are the autumn champions,” he said but he was laughing before he finished the sentence.

A third international window of the season has again given us time to reflect on the Premier League season so far and this time, with each team having played 11 matches, some fair conclusions can be reached with almost 29 per cent of the season complete.

Eleven matches in, we know Chelsea are the overwhelming favourites based on their ability to reach consistently high levels of performance every game whilst their direct rivals for the title, Manchester City, haven’t come close to doing the same thing.

Performing when ahead

Much of Chelsea’s improvement can be pointed to how well they have played when in front, and particularly against lower half teams. Last season they only won 13 of 20 games against the bottom 10. That had to improve this season and so far it has. Mourinho’s side is a powerhouse when they are in front and are showing very little vulnerabilities when ahead. They have led in every match and have only surrendered three of those leads, one each at Manchester City and Manchester United and at home to QPR.

Chelsea are evolving in front of our eyes and improving more and more when they get in front. They are certainly getting a lot of practice. They have been ahead for an incredible 569 minutes this BPL season (57 per cent) and have already learned, particularly from the game at Man City where they dropped too deep and allowed their opponents to respond once they were behind. Against United and QPR both leads were surrendered in different circumstances; a goal from a set piece after losing Branislav Ivanovic to a red card and a cheeky backheel from Charlie Austin. Both goals were well taken but didn’t show weakness in Chelsea’s ability to see out games.

Southampton currently sits above City in second place and it is not hard to see why. Some have highlighted their soft fixture list to start the season but they have certainly taken advantage of that by taking leads and keeping them. Ronald Koeman’s side have led for 407 minutes this season (41 per cent) taking nine leads and squandering just one of them. Austin’s sensational finish for QPR was the only time a side has leveled when trailing against the Saints but Koeman’s men scored just two minutes after that and went on to win again. The St Mary’s side has led in eight games this season and has won all of them.

Like Chelsea, Manchester City have also squandered three leads this season but each of those highlighted significant weaknesses. At Arsenal they not only surrendered a lead but they also went behind, at Hull defensive errors saw them give up an early two-goal lead and at home to Spurs they were pressed in midfield and gave the ball away immediately after scoring themselves. Each time they were able to score their way out of trouble and they went on to win the games but it is clear this is not the City of last season yet. They trail Chelsea’s 590 minutes led by a huge margin, having led for just 285 minutes so far (29 per cent).

Arsenal has even more concerns when leading. When they allowed Swansea to tie their last game it was already the fourth time they have squandered a lead this season and all of those have come less than 13 minutes after they took it. On each occasion they didn’t go on to win the match. Arsenal have led for just 165 minutes this season (17 per cent) and 118 of those came in two games, against Aston Villa and Sunderland. For a team that have spent little time in front they have already given away nine points from winning positions. The Gunners currently sit 15th in the minutes-led table so far.

Minutes led in the Premier League this season (leads - squandered):

Chelsea - 569 (12-3)

Southampton - 407 (9-1)

Everton - 372 (8-5)

West Ham - 357 (6-1)

Swansea City - 330 (10-5)

Stoke City - 313 (7-3)

Manchester United - 294 (7-3)

Manchester City - 285 (9-3)

Aston Villa - 265 (4-1)

Crystal Palace - 220 (6-4)

Tottenham - 220 (8-4)

Liverpool - 215 (10-5)

Hull City - 206 (7-5)

West Brom - 191 (6-3)

Arsenal - 165 (8-4)

Sunderland - 163 (6-4)

Queens Park Rangers - 134 (4-2)

Newcastle - 115 (5-1)

Leicester City - 93 (4-2)

Burnley - 43 (2-1)

Squandering leads

We can learn a lot about how a team performs when they take the lead and it speaks to the openness of the Premier League, as well as its overall mediocrity, when you look at the amount of times teams have surrendered leads this season.

Through the first 11 weeks a total of 138 leads have been taken in the league and 59 have them have been surrendered, meaning just 79 have managed to hold on to their advantage. That means 57 per cent of the leads taken do not get squandered – lead conversion rate (LCR).

Southampton’s 88 per cent LCR (eight of their nine leads have not been squandered) is by far the best in the league and will be lowered as the season goes on.

The early season difficulties experienced by Liverpool and Arsenal are highlighted in this stat. The second- and fourth-place sides from last season have so far surrendered leads at least four times (five for the Reds) and have yet to go ahead on more than 10 occasions. Both LCR’s sit behind the league average of 50 per cent.

As the season goes on expect that to happen.

Last season Arsenal led the league with the lowest squandered leads (five of 29) for a very impressive 83 per cent LCR.

Last season’s famous meltdown at Crystal Palace by Liverpool was the 11th time in 35 leads that season they squandered a lead. They ended the season with a 69 per cent LCR.

Champions Manchester City (38 leads and 11 squandered) ended the campaign with a 71 per cent LCR.

Finally, Chelsea last season (32 leads and nine squandered) finished with a 72 per cent LCR but signs of an improvement for this season were already on the horizon in the second half as they squandered seven of their nine in total through the first 16 games.

Mourinho’s men have now only squandered five leads in their last 33 league matches – an 85 per cent LCR. This season’s LCR is at 75 per cent (nine of 12) through 11 matches but look for that to rise significantly as the year goes on. Chelsea have already played at four of the most difficult grounds in a season – Goodison Park, Etihad, Old Trafford and Anfield – and 17 of their next 21 league games, up to mid-April, come against teams not considered as a traditional top seven in the Premier League. Continue on this pace and they’ll likely be champions by then.

This is part one of a Premier League statistical study looking at how teams perform in different scenarios. Later this week part two will look at how teams perform when they are trailing in games.