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TSN Soccer Analyst

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Earlier this week we looked at all 20 Premier League teams and broke them down statistically based on how they perform when they are in front. During that process we also shone the spotlight on LCR – lead conversion rate – based on the 138 leads taken in the Premier League so far through 11 rounds. Today we look at the opposite of that and focus on the teams on the other end of those 138 leads and how they performed when facing a deficit.

Performing from behind

It is not going away and it is no longer hyperbole. Yes, it is only 11 games but Chelsea’s task of going the entire season unbeaten is looking more and more like a real possibility. Yet, as they look to conquer such an enormous mountain, they will be aware of times that will present them with challenges. Times when they go behind and require real quality and leadership to help them recover.

Talk about the new invincibles is gathering steam in part because of how well Chelsea have played when going behind. No team is ever going to go a full season not trailing in a game but it is how you bounce back that can show whether or not you can go unbeaten for a long period of time. Through 11 games Chelsea have trailed just three times and each time have gone on to level, take the lead and win. They have been behind for just 42 of the official 990 BPL minutes (four per cent of their season) they have played so far, gaining an impressive nine points from losing positions.

Closest rivals Manchester City, meanwhile, have trailed six times already for 142 minutes (14 per cent of their season). Four of the six times they have managed to level while trailing but they haven’t won a game from a losing position yet and have just three points claimed from losing positions, six less than Chelsea despite having played 98 more minutes in this situation.

Southampton have spent less time behind in games than Man City (122 mins – 12 per cent) going behind just four times so far and managing to recover those deficits to level twice.

Contrast that to Arsenal who have so far won just four games – one each in the months of August, September, October and November. The Gunners have been behind seven times already for a total of 253 minutes (26 per cent) and last season they didn’t go behind for a seventh time until their 23rd match and didn’t reach 250 minutes trailing until February.

One positive for Arsenal has been their ability to perform well once behind, but this is slightly flawed. A strong team who is going to go behind more often than they should will always have a higher losing recovery rate anyway.

No big club has performed worse in this category, however, than Liverpool this season. The Reds have gone behind five times and gone on to stay behind and lose on every occasion. Along with Aston Villa they are the only team in the entire league that has no losing recoveries.

Last season they only went behind five times and didn’t recover to level and they have already reached that number this campaign through 11 matches. Last season their Losing Recovery Rate (LRR) was an extremely impressive 69 per cent as they went behind 16 times and leveled 11 of those deficits.

Champions Manchester City, for example, had a 50 per cent LRR, with six lead recoveries from 12 deficits.

Minutes spent trailing in the Premier League this season (deficits - recoveries)

Chelsea - 42 (3-3)

Swansea City - 70 (4-1)

Southampton - 122 (4-2)

Manchester City - 142 (6-4)

West Ham - 161 (6-3)

Manchester United - 174 (7-4)

Everton - 215 (6-3)

Sunderland - 241 (7-4)

Crystal Palace - 251 (9-3)

Stoke City - 251 (7-3)

Arsenal - 253 (7-5)

Hull City - 254 (6-2)

Liverpool - 258 (5-0)

Aston Villa - 294 (6-0)

Leicester City - 295 (10-4)

Tottenham - 354 (7-2)

West Brom - 369 (7-3)

Newcastle - 389 (9-6)

Burnley - 390 (9-3)

Queens Park Rangers - 434 (13-6)

One team whose LRR particularly stands out is Newcastle. A very impressive 66 per cent showed why it is no surprise that the team has gone on a good run lately. Alan Pardew was on a very hot seat for much of the season and after eight games the team only had four points but by then they already had five lead recoveries, showing signs of progression. Since then they have found ways to get leads in their last four matches and have held on to each of them.

The task of going 38-for-38.

In order to become invincible you, of course, need a 100 per cent LRR and the only team to do that in the Premier League era was Arsenal in 2003-04.

Arsene Wenger’s side that season had 10 deficits and 10 successful recoveries going behind for a total of 233 minutes - 10 times in nine matches - but half of these came before the November international break.

Like Chelsea this year, that side also had played at Old Trafford, Anfield and at a much weaker Manchester City through the first three months of the season and had also played their London rivals (in this case Chelsea) at home already.

Mourinho’s men clearly have a long way to go but they have been shown the way already and as Thierry Henry, Dennis Bergkamp and company can attest, there will likely be four or five more times when Chelsea goes behind this season. How they respond will be the key to see if we do get a new era of invincibles.