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TSN Soccer Analyst

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Manchester City haven't had a lot of things go their way in the Champions League.

Yet 54 minutes before the kick off of their home game against Bayern Munich, 2,000 miles from the Etihad Stadium in a freezing cold, empty stadium, CSKA Moscow scored a dramatic late goal against Roma to level their tie and ensure City didn't have to beat Bayern Munich to keep alive their hopes of qualifying for the last 16.

Such a moment had a right to be celebrated inside the walls of their stadium but it was also a true indictment at what City had become in Europe, opening themselves up to take favours from unlikely scenarios. The fact that it also took qualifying out of their own hands – given that CSKA could win their last game at Bayern and eliminate City no matter what they do – seemed irrelevant as City could lose again and still have a chance to get through.

Hardly the attitude of champions.

This was not what the supposed powerhouse was expecting. Two points through four matches in Europe's greatest club competition was a pitiful return as they got set to host arguably the most talented team on the continent in Bayern Munich.

CSKA's late goal sent many football fans and writers to the tiebreakers rule and their calculators and the conclusion they all found was that City could still lose against Bayern and have a chance of qualifying, despite gaining just two points from five matches.

Roma hadn't gotten warm and reached the plane in Moscow before City had another slice of fortune when Mehdi Benatia was sent off after just 20 minutes for a challenge on Sergio Aguero in the penalty box. 1-0 City.

Bayern Munich is an all-too-familiar foe for City these days. In their fourth season of the Champions League the two teams have been drawn together on three different occasions. The stats show City have beaten the mighty German champions twice during that time but both were when Bayern had already qualified for the last 16, the same scenario the teams faced Tuesday night in Manchester.

More good fortune for City.

It continued. Pep Guardiola's starting XI had a number of talented players missing through injury or rest. There was no Philipp Lahm, Bastian Schweinsteiger, David Alaba, Thomas Muller, Mario Gotze, Thiago Alcantara, Dante or Javi Martinez.

Alongside Xabi Alonso in midfield were two players most of England had never heard of. German Sebastian Rode and Pierre Hojbjerg, the Swede spoken at length in Guardiola's recent book, both made their full Champions League debuts. They would only play together for 24 minutes with Rode coming off following the red card to Benatia but in that time the pair showed just why the system is more important than the player as a passing clinic was put on by the visitors when it was 11 on 11. On the opposite side, for much of the game, City relied upon a couple of Englishmen to play the two most advanced central midfield positions, never a good recipe for success against such a progressive side.

The score changed with the red card but the game didn't. Bayern had planned for such a scenario. Guardiola prepares his teams like no other coach and at 10 vs 11 the visitors still passed the ball with ease. It was an education in football intelligence and ball retention and eventually the masters schooled the pupils, scoring two fine goals inside the last five minutes of the first half. Eliaquim Mangala's poor start to the season continued when he conceded a needless foul on the edge of the box and goalkeeper Joe Hart then added to the incompetence with a poor wall and even worse positioning on a free kick placed home by the magnificent Xabi Alonso.

Five minutes later City were trailing when Robert Lewandowski headed home the game's third goal following a cross by Jerome Boateng. The cross was delivered by a defender stepping up and not being pressed by any midfielders and it was fitting that a so-called giant was being outplayed with the likes of Frank Lampard and James Milner playing in midfield. With Samir Nasri drifting inside neither could get to Boateng in time to stop the service, just like they couldn't get to Alonso to cut off the supply throughout the half. All of this with a man advantage.

City looked dead and buried as the second half went on and then on a day of lifelines they got handed even more. Firstly, the reliable Alonso misplaced a key pass that allowed Aguero to go in and score a tremendous equalizer and then Boateng lost the ball to the brilliant Argentine who went on to score the winner.

It was a remarkable turnaround for a team that all season has relied on individual brilliance to paper over some significant cracks.

Nasri's pre-game words highlighted just how nervous they were about qualifying from this group.

"We need to do something or otherwise next year it's going to be new players and new everything," the Frenchman said before the match.

His frank assessment continued: "Let's be honest, with the salary of every player and the level of those players, 90 per cent of the team are world class, then not to qualify from the first round of the Champions League would be a huge blow for the club - and for us as well."

Nasri's brutally honest determination had one flaw in it. The Champions League has highlighted many of the club's problems and this is certainly not a team that has nine out of 10 players at a world class level.

Qualifying for the last 16 or not, City are nowhere close to the level they want to be. The hiring of Ferran Soriano as CEO two years ago has helped them make significant strides off the field in turning their brand into a worldwide empire but the performance of the team on the field hasn't escalated anywhere close to the same level.

City's unlikely win on Tuesday now means they have played 25 Champions League games in the last four seasons, winning nine, drawing six and losing 10. A pitiful return for a team that has spent so much money.

Thanks to the lifeline handed them by CSKA there is still a lifeline for them to qualify for the last 16 but that shouldn't matter any more. There is already more than enough evidence to judge this current crop of City players at the highest level. It sets up a fascinating tilt in Rome on the last matchday and a City win may get them through but that will not distract for Soriano and director of football, Txiki Begiristain, from the ongoing issues with their team.

At the end of the 2006-07 season Barcelona, a year after winning the Champions League and La Liga titles, lost their domestic league on goal difference to Real Madrid. Their manager Frank Rijkaard could not lose his job just 12 months after conquering Europe, but deep down Soriano and Begiristain knew he wasn't the man to take them forward and changes had to be made. Aguero's brilliance aside, a night like this will rekindle those thoughts.

A squad assembled with Khaldoon Al Mubarek's fortune needs a significant overhaul in order for them to start making inroads in this competition.

The starting XI against Bayern Munich had an average age of over 28 with only two players less than 27. Not only do they lack the world class talent Nasri imagines but they lack quality young players who are progressing forward. Far too many of their players have plateaued at a very good level and will never reach the next step that true great players step up to.

"Our squad is very strong, in the second year under Manuel Pellegrini, they will do much better," said Soriano this past summer.

This is clearly not happening.

Soriano is a man who uses the word cycle often. When he fired Roberto Mancini he said: "We want a manager that is stable but there are also cycles and managers can change with cycles."

Pellegrini and his players have a monumental night in Rome to come in two weeks but how long they remain at the club may have already been determined no matter how they perform that night.