After the Toronto Blue Jays’ three-game set with the Texas Rangers in Arlington concludes on Thursday, the team will have 35 games remaining in the season and all of them in the Eastern Time Zone.

The Jays’ stretch drive will also feature predominately divisional match-ups. Of the Jays’ final 38 games this season, only 13 will be against non-AL East opponents with 10 of those games upcoming immediately.

If the Jays can weather the storm over the next 42 days, their 22-year playoff drought – the longest in North American pro sports – will come to an end.

 

BLUE JAYS' REMAINING SCHEDULE

GAME # DATE OPPONENT (HOME IN BOLD)
125  August 25  Texas Rangers
126  August 26  Texas Rangers 
127  August 27  Texas Rangers 
128  August 28  Detroit Tigers 
129  August 29  Detroit Tigers 
130  August 30  Detroit Tigers 
131  August 31  Cleveland Indians 
132  September 1  Cleveland Indians 
133  September 2  Cleveland Indians 
134  September 4  Baltimore Orioles 
135  September 5  Baltimore Orioles 
136  September 6  Baltimore Orioles 
137  September 7  Boston Red Sox 
138  September 8  Boston Red Sox 
139  September 9  Boston Red Sox 
140  September 10  New York Yankees
141  September 11  New York Yankees 
142  September 12  New York Yankees 
143  September 13  New York Yankees 
144  September 15  Atlanta Braves 
145  September 16  Atlanta Braves 
146  September 17  Atlanta Braves 
147  September 18  Boston Red Sox 
148  September 19  Boston Red Sox 
149  September 20  Boston Red Sox 
150  September 21  New York Yankees 
151  September 22  New York Yankees 
152  September 23  New York Yankees 
153  September 25  Tampa Bay Rays 
154  September 26  Tampa Bay Rays 
155  September 27  Tampa Bay Rays 
156  September 28  Baltimore Orioles
157  September 29  Baltimore Orioles 
158  September 30  Baltimore Orioles 
159  October 1  Baltimore Orioles 
160  October 2  Tampa Bay Rays 
161  October 3  Tampa Bay Rays 
162  October 4  Tampa Bay Rays 

The Jays have played their remaining opponents 60 times already this season and are an even .500 (30-30). Those eight teams are a combined 23 games under .500 with a .488 winning percentage.

In the 20 seasons since its implementation, it's taken an average of 93.3 wins to secure an American League wild card berth (The numbers have wildly varied, though. In 2001, the Oakland Athletics were a wild card team with 102 wins, while the Yankees needed only 78 wins in the inaugural wild card season of 1995). If we're to use history as a benchmark, the Jays would need to go 24-14 to reach that 93-win mark.

Through that same 20-year period, an average of 97.2 wins is needed to claim the AL East, meaning that a 28-10 mark the rest of the way would get the Jays to that milestone.

Luckily for the Jays, the parity that is rampant throughout the American League this season dictates that the win totals of both the AL East winner and the AL wild card teams will skew below the average (Interestingly, the year that the Yankees claimed the first AL wild card with a relatively paltry 78 wins, the Red Sox were AL East winners with 86 wins).

According to FanGraphs and their playoff odds that are updated with every game, the Jays' projected win total is 89.7, which would give them the AL East.

Next up for the Jays are the surprising Rangers, the current holders of the second wild card spot. That might not bode well for Jeff Banister's team, though. The Jays have played the then-holder of the second wild card in the past 20 days in the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels. Over those seven games, the Jays went 7-0 and outscored their opponents 62-22.

Of course, the Jays aren't playing in a vacuum.

The Yankees will much to say when it comes to the AL East race and the seven head-to-head dates remaining with the Jays (four in New York and three in Toronto) could decide the division winner. The Jays are currently 8-4 this season against the Yankees. 

 

YANKEES' REMAINING SCHEDULE

GAME # DATE OPPONENT (HOME IN BOLD)
124  August 24 Houston Astros
125  August 25 Houston Astros
126  August 26  Houston Astros
127  August 28 Atlanta Braves
128  August 29 Atlanta Braves
129  August 30 Atlanta Braves
130  August 31 Boston Red Sox
131  September 1 Boston Red Sox
132  September 2 Boston Red Sox
133  September 4 Tampa Bay Rays 
134  September 5 Tampa Bay Rays
135  September 6 Tampa Bay Rays
136  September 7 Baltimore Orioles
137  September 8  Baltimore Orioles
138  September 9 Baltimore Orioles
139  September 10 Toronto Blue Jays
140  September 11  Toronto Blue Jays
141  September 12  Toronto Blue Jays
142  September 13 Toronto Blue Jays
143  September 14 Tampa Bay Rays
144  September 15 Tampa Bay Rays
145  September 16 Tampa Bay Rays
146  September 18 New York Mets
147  September 19 New York Mets
148  September 20 New York Mets 
149  September 21 Toronto Blue Jays
150  September 22 Toronto Blue Jays 
151  September 23 Toronto Blue Jays
152  September 24 Chicago White Sox
153 September 25 Chicago White Sox
154 September 26  Chicago White Sox 
155  September 27  Chicago White Sox
156 September 28  Boston Red Sox
157  September 29 Boston Red Sox 
158  September 30  Boston Red Sox
159   October 1 Boston Red Sox 
160 October 2 Baltimore Orioles 
161  October 3 Baltimore Orioles
162 October 4 Baltimore Orioles

Joe Girardi's Bronx Bombers have already played seven of their eight remaining opponents this season (they've yet to meet the Braves) and have had success, going 34-26 in those matchups. That octet of teams is currently a combined clip of .502, three games on the good side of .500.

FanGraphs has the Yankees' projected win total at 88.6, which wouldn't be enough to catch the Jays. The two top teams in the AL East have 96.3 and 93.3 per cent chances of reaching the postseason, respectively, according to those same metrics.

The Jays and Yankees next meet again on September 10 in New York City.