Aug 24, 2015
Jays, Yankees have similar final stretches
As the American League East race heads into the stretch drive, its two top teams, the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees can expect to see a lot of the same opponents and a lot of each other.
TSN.ca Staff
After the Toronto Blue Jays’ three-game set with the Texas Rangers in Arlington concludes on Thursday, the team will have 35 games remaining in the season and all of them in the Eastern Time Zone.
The Jays’ stretch drive will also feature predominately divisional match-ups. Of the Jays’ final 38 games this season, only 13 will be against non-AL East opponents with 10 of those games upcoming immediately.
If the Jays can weather the storm over the next 42 days, their 22-year playoff drought – the longest in North American pro sports – will come to an end.
BLUE JAYS' REMAINING SCHEDULE
GAME # | DATE | OPPONENT (HOME IN BOLD) |
---|---|---|
125 | August 25 | Texas Rangers |
126 | August 26 | Texas Rangers |
127 | August 27 | Texas Rangers |
128 | August 28 | Detroit Tigers |
129 | August 29 | Detroit Tigers |
130 | August 30 | Detroit Tigers |
131 | August 31 | Cleveland Indians |
132 | September 1 | Cleveland Indians |
133 | September 2 | Cleveland Indians |
134 | September 4 | Baltimore Orioles |
135 | September 5 | Baltimore Orioles |
136 | September 6 | Baltimore Orioles |
137 | September 7 | Boston Red Sox |
138 | September 8 | Boston Red Sox |
139 | September 9 | Boston Red Sox |
140 | September 10 | New York Yankees |
141 | September 11 | New York Yankees |
142 | September 12 | New York Yankees |
143 | September 13 | New York Yankees |
144 | September 15 | Atlanta Braves |
145 | September 16 | Atlanta Braves |
146 | September 17 | Atlanta Braves |
147 | September 18 | Boston Red Sox |
148 | September 19 | Boston Red Sox |
149 | September 20 | Boston Red Sox |
150 | September 21 | New York Yankees |
151 | September 22 | New York Yankees |
152 | September 23 | New York Yankees |
153 | September 25 | Tampa Bay Rays |
154 | September 26 | Tampa Bay Rays |
155 | September 27 | Tampa Bay Rays |
156 | September 28 | Baltimore Orioles |
157 | September 29 | Baltimore Orioles |
158 | September 30 | Baltimore Orioles |
159 | October 1 | Baltimore Orioles |
160 | October 2 | Tampa Bay Rays |
161 | October 3 | Tampa Bay Rays |
162 | October 4 | Tampa Bay Rays |
The Jays have played their remaining opponents 60 times already this season and are an even .500 (30-30). Those eight teams are a combined 23 games under .500 with a .488 winning percentage.
In the 20 seasons since its implementation, it's taken an average of 93.3 wins to secure an American League wild card berth (The numbers have wildly varied, though. In 2001, the Oakland Athletics were a wild card team with 102 wins, while the Yankees needed only 78 wins in the inaugural wild card season of 1995). If we're to use history as a benchmark, the Jays would need to go 24-14 to reach that 93-win mark.
Through that same 20-year period, an average of 97.2 wins is needed to claim the AL East, meaning that a 28-10 mark the rest of the way would get the Jays to that milestone.
Luckily for the Jays, the parity that is rampant throughout the American League this season dictates that the win totals of both the AL East winner and the AL wild card teams will skew below the average (Interestingly, the year that the Yankees claimed the first AL wild card with a relatively paltry 78 wins, the Red Sox were AL East winners with 86 wins).
According to FanGraphs and their playoff odds that are updated with every game, the Jays' projected win total is 89.7, which would give them the AL East.
Next up for the Jays are the surprising Rangers, the current holders of the second wild card spot. That might not bode well for Jeff Banister's team, though. The Jays have played the then-holder of the second wild card in the past 20 days in the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels. Over those seven games, the Jays went 7-0 and outscored their opponents 62-22.
Of course, the Jays aren't playing in a vacuum.
The Yankees will much to say when it comes to the AL East race and the seven head-to-head dates remaining with the Jays (four in New York and three in Toronto) could decide the division winner. The Jays are currently 8-4 this season against the Yankees.
YANKEES' REMAINING SCHEDULE
GAME # | DATE | OPPONENT (HOME IN BOLD) |
---|---|---|
124 | August 24 | Houston Astros |
125 | August 25 | Houston Astros |
126 | August 26 | Houston Astros |
127 | August 28 | Atlanta Braves |
128 | August 29 | Atlanta Braves |
129 | August 30 | Atlanta Braves |
130 | August 31 | Boston Red Sox |
131 | September 1 | Boston Red Sox |
132 | September 2 | Boston Red Sox |
133 | September 4 | Tampa Bay Rays |
134 | September 5 | Tampa Bay Rays |
135 | September 6 | Tampa Bay Rays |
136 | September 7 | Baltimore Orioles |
137 | September 8 | Baltimore Orioles |
138 | September 9 | Baltimore Orioles |
139 | September 10 | Toronto Blue Jays |
140 | September 11 | Toronto Blue Jays |
141 | September 12 | Toronto Blue Jays |
142 | September 13 | Toronto Blue Jays |
143 | September 14 | Tampa Bay Rays |
144 | September 15 | Tampa Bay Rays |
145 | September 16 | Tampa Bay Rays |
146 | September 18 | New York Mets |
147 | September 19 | New York Mets |
148 | September 20 | New York Mets |
149 | September 21 | Toronto Blue Jays |
150 | September 22 | Toronto Blue Jays |
151 | September 23 | Toronto Blue Jays |
152 | September 24 | Chicago White Sox |
153 | September 25 | Chicago White Sox |
154 | September 26 | Chicago White Sox |
155 | September 27 | Chicago White Sox |
156 | September 28 | Boston Red Sox |
157 | September 29 | Boston Red Sox |
158 | September 30 | Boston Red Sox |
159 | October 1 | Boston Red Sox |
160 | October 2 | Baltimore Orioles |
161 | October 3 | Baltimore Orioles |
162 | October 4 | Baltimore Orioles |
Joe Girardi's Bronx Bombers have already played seven of their eight remaining opponents this season (they've yet to meet the Braves) and have had success, going 34-26 in those matchups. That octet of teams is currently a combined clip of .502, three games on the good side of .500.
FanGraphs has the Yankees' projected win total at 88.6, which wouldn't be enough to catch the Jays. The two top teams in the AL East have 96.3 and 93.3 per cent chances of reaching the postseason, respectively, according to those same metrics.
The Jays and Yankees next meet again on September 10 in New York City.