The biggest rule change the CFL made in the offseason was to move the extra point back - to kick from the 32.

The expectation was it would add a little excitement as the point after would no longer be a sure thing, and teams would go for two more often.

But is your team going for two as often as it should be? The math says...probably not.

To explain - you’ve scored a touchdown. Maybe it was an amazing grab by SJ Green. 

Maybe it was your short-yardage QB off the bench stuffing it in from the 1 it’s not always sexy, sometimes it’s just six.

It used to be a foregone conclusion what was next - kick the convert!

But the new rule has at least given teams something to think about.
 
2015 Converts

2-point attempts: 66
1-point attempts: 237

Through Week 15, teams have attempted 66 2-point converts - still a lot fewer than the 1-pointers.

All of last season there were seven successful 2-pointers. So the rule change does have teams are going for it way more. But are they going for it enough?

Consider this:

2015 Converts

1-point attempts: 204-237, 86%
2-point attempts: 44-66, 67%

Kickers are making 86 per cent of converts from the new distance. Runs and passes – 67 per cent. So the kick is more of a sure thing.

But, right now, the 2-pointer is much more valuable.

67% x 2 points = 1.34 points per attempt

Converting 67 per cent of the time, multiplied by points for succeeding, means that teams should expect to average about 1.34 points per attempt. Even if a kick were successful 100 per cent of the time, it wouldn’t equal the value of going for two.

And even if teams can’t keep converting at a 67 per cent rate, it can still more valuable than a kick.

86% x 1 point = 0.86 pts per attempt

0.86 PPA ÷ 2 points = 43%

Remember, kicks are being made at an 86 per cent rate.  Since a run or pass is twice as valuable, teams only have to convert them half as often to be equal...43 per cent in this case.

 

Kicking Rate

Team Percentage
WPG 83%
BC 80%
CGY 71%
HAM 67%
MTL  67%
SSK 64%
OTT 60%
EDM 57%
TOR 56%

    
After Week 15, all nine teams are reaching that threshold. So if each team expects its percentage will hold up, they should all be going for two.

Now, coaching always trumps math when time and score become factors. In Week 7, the Redblacks scored a touchdown with 1:30 left, to go up two points on the Alouettes.

In that case, Ottawa was going to kick 100 per cent of the time, because being up three points in that situation makes it worth it for a team to sacrificing some value.

Right now, the math says teams are leaving points on the field by kicking their converts. If they keep scoring two at a 67 per cent rate, coaches will have no choice but to go for it.