There have been a number of articles recently speculating about the chances Aaron Hill has of making this year's American League All-Star team.
In the realm of the glass being half-full or half-empty, I have been accused by many of viewing it as over-flowing. But, even I, the eternal optimist and founding president, treasurer, secretary and inaugural pledge of the Aaron Hill Fan Club, see his chances as being somewhat remote.
It's not that he's not deserving. He most certainly is. It's that the splendid case he's making for his candidacy this season might be going largely overlooked by the two parties responsible for voting in the All-Stars -- the fans and his fellow players.
Clearly, fan balloting is doing Hill no favours. In the most recently released results he sits fourth at his position, but is more than a million votes behind Ian Kinsler of the Texas Rangers and slightly less than a million back of Boston's Dustin Pedroia.
But what about the players? Won't they know that Hill has more hits (95) than anyone in baseball this season, save for Ichiro (98)? Or that he's amassed more total bases (150) than any player in the AL, save for a pair of absolute mashers, Justin Morneau (157) and Mark Teixeira (151)? Or that he's done all of this while hitting second in the Jays lineup, a spot in the order where you're oftentimes asked to give yourself up to move the leadoff hitter over? Or that he's been just as good in the field, turning more double plays than all but two other players at his position in the big leagues?
My guess, regrettably, is no.
Player voting is a noble premise. But in practice, it's only slightly less of a popularity contest than fan balloting. I know this from firsthand experience. In 2005, I was the travelling P.R. rep with the Blue Jays on a road trip that took us through a stop in Washington on the date where all MLB players would be required to cast their All-Star votes. Vernon Wells, the player union rep, and I were responsible for passing out and collecting the ballots.
On the day of balloting, I was instructed to prepare detailed packets with up-to-date statistics to help the players make the most informed choices. After all, this is important, right? Home field advantage in the World Series now hangs on the outcome of the Midsummer Classic.
I can tell you those packets went almost entirely untouched. Only a few players seemed to really agonize over their choices. Most quickly scanned the rules, scribbled out their choices and passed their ballots back in just a few minutes time.
When I conferred upstairs in the press box with my counterpart from the Nationals, I found that scene had pretty much been repeated in the other clubhouse. I think it's a fair assumption that it's been repeated in a lot of MLB clubhouses ever since.
Is the players vote more informed than the fan vote? Absolutely. But do the players put in the kind of thought to the matter required to find that Hill has been second to none at second base this season? Not as far as I could tell.
And so there's the dilemna. If a major factor in All-Star voting is popularity or name recognition, does Hill have any shot against Kinsler or Pedroia, or, for that matter, longtime standouts like Robinson Cano or Brian Roberts? I'm afraid not. You see, the Jays are typically an after-thought on ESPN's SportsCenter and/or Baseball Tonight, which is preferred clubhouse viewing for the other 29 teams in baseball. I can't remember the last time Toronto was ever showcased to other players and an international audience on either ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball or the FOX Saturday afternoon game. When the Jays visit other cities, the opposing media typically focuses its attention on Halladay (and deservedly so).
So the chances are pretty good a majority of North American fans and a surprisingly large number of MLB players are almost entirely oblivious to just how good Hill has been in his return to the field this year from that terrible head injury. But they will know that Kinsler is already an established All-Star and that Pedroia spends his off days polishing his AL MVP plaque.
Hill's best chance at a trip to St. Louis might lie in the special online vote given to fans to choose the last player on each league's roster. The great irony is he might face competition there from one of his similarly overlooked teammates, Marco Scutaro or Adam Lind. I hope that's not the case, but I fear it very well might be.
Paint By Numbers
Hey Now, Who's the All-Star?: At the end of April, it was widely assumed Zack Greinke would be the starting pitcher for the American League at the All-Star Game. After all, it was around that time Sports Illustrated put the Royals Crown Jewel on its May 4th cover under the headline "The Best Pitcher in Baseball." Presuppose much SI? Greinke now has just one win in his last five starts and holds a pedestrian 4.33 ERA here in June.
At the end of May, Roy Halladay seemed to be the presumptive choice and with good reason. But with Doc now sidelined by a strained groin, he might soon be passed by in this race by another pitcher altogether.
The clubhouse leader at the end of June might very well be Detroit's Justin Verlander. In his last ten starts, Verlander has gone 7-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He's been all but unhittable at home this season, where he holds a 4-0 record with a 1.11 ERA. In his six starts at Comerica Park, Verlander has recorded more than twice as many strikeouts (51) as hits allowed (23).
Halladay (10-1, 2.53 ERA) should still be the choice, but Jays fans shouldn't be filled with righteous indignation if the ball gets passed to Verlander. This holds especially true if Roy is still having any kind of health-related issues.
Rays and Rox Ready to Run?: Statistical analysts will tell you one of the best predictive measures of any team's success can typically be found in its run differential. That's the difference between a team's runs scored and its runs against. That theory certainly seems to be holding up this year with the top teams in the NL and AL sitting first and second in run differential, as you'll see below. Meanwhile, the team with the worst record in baseball, the hapless Washington Nationals, is also, not coincidentally, saddled with by far and away the worst mark at -91.
MLB Run Differential Leaders:
L.A. Dodgers +88
Boston Red Sox +71
Tampa Bay Rays +67
Toronto Blue Jays +43
St. Louis Cardinals +36
Colorado Rockies +33
New York Yankees +32
Detroit Tigers +31
Philadelphia Phillies +29
Minnesota Twins +22
So, what can learn from this list? Well...several things actually, but three foremost among them:
The East is a Beast: Don't let anyone try to argue that any division in baseball (or, for that matter, any division in North American team sports) is better than the AL East. A good case could be made that half of the top eight teams in the game today reside in baseball's uber-division. Certainly, those four clubs all rank highly on this list. That includes your Toronto Blue Jays who have outscored their opposition by the fourth-largest margin in baseball, in spite of being forced to use 11 different starting pitchers … 11!
The Rays are For Real: It's not exactly breaking news that Tampa Bay has a good team. But what is newsworthy here is this chart seems to indicate they are much better than their current fourth place standing in their division. Actually, what it really indicates is the Rays might be better than any team in baseball save for the Dodgers and Red Sox. Statheads swear by run differential and, if that's the case, the Rays might be ready to run right by the Jays and Yankees in the second half to nab the Wild Card.
So are the Rockies: Remember Rocktober 2007? That was when Colorado won 20 of its last 21 games in the regular season and playoffs before being swept by the Red Sox in the World Series. Well, they're doing it again, albeit at a decidedly less dramatic time in the season. The Rockies have won 17 of their last 19 games and now sit just 1.5 games back of the NL Wild Card lead. Like the Rays, the Rockies outstanding run differential (+33) seems to indicate they have played better than their win-loss record would show. Based on this measure, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Rox chase down and pass the two teams in front of them -- San Francisco (+8) and Milwaukee (+6) -- in that Wild Card chase.
Phirst Place Phillies Phlunking in Philly: There is perhaps no greater statistical oddity in baseball right now than the home record of the defending World Series Champs. The Philadelphia Phillies have posted a 13-22 record on home turf. Of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball, only eight have losing records at home. The Phillies are among them. But, unlike the other seven in that group, the Phillies have a winning record overall having maintained an absurdly good pace on the road (24-9). So what happens first? Do the Phillies start winning with greater regularity at home? Or start dropping more contests on the road? The answers to those questions will effectively determine whether Philadelphia makes a return to the postseason to defend its title.