I'm thinking today of Affeldt and Punto and Abreu and Hudson as MLB's round of full free agency formally gets underway. I guarantee you those names will be on the minds of agents and their clients as they get set to hit this year's open market.
Let's go back a year and remember the start of Free Agent Frenzy 2009!!! Actually, it wasn't so much of a Frenzy!, as much as it was a light flurry of activity. Players like Jeremy Affeldt (Length: 2 years / Total Value: $8 M), Edgar Renteria (2 yr. / $18.5 M) and Nick Punto (2 yr. / $8.5 M) all snapped up deals from clubs in the early days of free agency. In hindsight, this proved to be an especially shrewd move by their agents. With the recession truly starting to bare its ugly teeth, some clubs spent what little money they had in the first weeks of free agency and then put their wallets away.
Players that sat back and waited for a bidding war to erupt over their services as had routinely occurred in years past, were left to do just that -- sit and wait. Bobby Abreu ended up signing just before Spring Training got underway to a one-year deal worth $5 million with the Angels. To you and I, $5 million sounds like a lottery jackpot. To Bobby Abreu, it sounds like an outright insult. Remember that he made $16 million in 2008 and no less than $10 million in any of the four seasons before that.
Throughout the offseason, there seemed to be little interest in the 35-year-old outfielder. That is until the Angels snapped up free agency's best bargain on February 12. Playing for less than a third of what he made the year before, Abreu proved to be no worse than the third-best player on the second or third-best team in all of baseball.
Then there is the case of Orlando Hudson, who also waited for a big money deal that never materialized. Reports indicate the O-Dog began the offseason looking for a five-year contract worth $50 million. Teams didn't want him at the price, nor did they want to surrender a high draft pick as compensation for signing him as a Type A free agent. He ended the offseason by signing a one-year deal worth $3.38 million (down from $6.25 million the year before with Arizona). It proved to be a great bargain for the Dodgers as Hudson ended up making his second career All-Star appearance and captured a fourth Gold Glove Award at second base.
Remarkably, Abreu and Hudson were some of the lucky ones, even though they were both forced to accept dramatic pay cuts. A whole group of 30-somethings had early retirement thrust upon them, as teams decided to promote younger and cheaper talent from within. There were no offers to be had for Jim Edmonds, Richie Sexson, Jay Payton or Shannon Stewart among many others.
Now, let's get back to the present day and realize this current offseason could see an even more pronounced curb in spending from MLB clubs.
Why?
Well -- 1) less bums in seats -- attendance dropped by 6% across baseball this year, 2) less money around the game -- one report indicates league-wide revenues are down by an estimated $300 million, 3) fewer advertising dollars to be had -- sponsors aren't spending as much, or have pulled their marketing and advertising deals with MLB teams altogether and 4) an emphasis on cutting back -- teams around baseball have been cutting costs and laying off scores of employees. According to President Paul Beeston, the Jays have let go of 70 employees dating back to this time last year, although they have also added a number of new scouts. Just last week, I heard from a dear friend who was a victim of restructuring after 15 years working in baseball, spending the last ten with a prominent west coast team.
Some teams have already announced frozen or lowered ticket prices for next season to stimulate buying interest in the midst of a bleak economy.
In light of all of that, it's likely that we will see monster deals for John Lackey, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, but very few others. Instead, chances are there will be a repeat of what we saw last year -- players taking surprisingly less dollars than they would have earned in years past, forsaking their one-time earning potential for the financial security of a multi-year contract.
What else will we see? From the Toronto Blue Jays, the answer is very likely not a whole lot. Speaking by phone on Thursday morning, General Manager Alex Anthopoulos told me he doesn't see his team "being big players in free agency".
Instead, he says he's spending much of his time right now working the phones on potential trades, but has been somewhat frustrated by a general lack of progress. "It's slow right now with respect to trading", he said. "Other GMs seem to be thinking why should I give up a player [in a trade] when I can just use my freed up money to go and sign someone". Anthopoulos believes the trade market will begin to warm after the first signings of free agency leading up to the Winter Meetings in early December.
What else could happen? Well, likely a bunch of unemployed ballplayers on December 12. That's the deadline for clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Anthopoulos says he expects a "flood of non-tenders" on the market, as clubs look to further cut expenses. The thinking here would be why risk having to pay out large sums through salary arbitration when you can non-tender a player and replace him at a fraction of the cost with a promoted minor leaguer or some other low level free agent. In the grand scheme of "supply and demand", this will only further depress an already depressed free agent marketplace.
In short, this might be an offseason where baseball executives continually drop phrases like "fiscal restraint" and "financial responsibility" and really truly mean it