Two seasons ago, the Utah Jazz were supposed to emerge as the next Western power; it didn't happen. One season ago, it was the New Orleans Hornets, who also couldn't repeat their success. Last season, the Denver Nuggets burst onto the scene after their franchise-altering trade for Chauncey Billups, and now we have to see if they can break the curse of the new arrivals in the west. There are signs that they might be able to do it, but there are also signs that they might not.
On their side is the fact that the bulk of this Nuggets team is young and the core has remained intact from last season. Head coach George Karl demanded more defensive accountability from his typically porous club last summer and the Nuggets responded with a fourth-place finish in opposing team field-goal percentage.
Now, with a year of successful play under their belts, the hope is that chemistry and experience begin to thrust this team into a higher stratosphere along with the Lakers and the Spurs. They have the talent, with Billups flanked by Olympic gold medalist Carmelo Anthony, a reborn Nenê and an effective Kenyon Martin. They re-signed forward Chris Andersen, acquired UNC standout Ty Lawson and promoted J.R. Smith to the starting lineup; all in all, this is a pretty formidable looking club.
Of course, there are flip sides to this coin. This team lost starting shooting guard Dahntay Jones to Indiana this summer, which not only rids the club of their most effective perimeter defender but also (by virtue of slotting Smith into the first five) robs this team of their most potent bench scorer. They lost Linas Kleiza to Europe, with his outside shooting and powerful driving game going with him, and have yet to ink anyone to replace his role on the bench (rumors of talks with Wally Szczerbiak and Flip Murray have yet to amount to anything).
Last season, this club was able to get some very large contributions from some minimum-salaried guys (Andersen, Jones) after they looked to shed salaries by trading away Marcus Camby. This season doesn't look to fruitful on the outside, but no one though much of their moves last summer, either.
In fact, they could probably get by with Aaron Afflalo taking Jones' minutes this season and some veteran shooter replacing Kleiza if they get lucky again and have no injury woes to contend with. However, Nenê and Kenyon Martin have both averaged only 53 games per season since arriving in Denver and go into each season as an uncertain commodity. While they may well manage to play 77 and 66 games respectively again this season, it has to happen before anyone could feel comfortable about the odds of them doing so.
However, judging this team on the merits of what they have and not assuming the worst going into this season, do they have what it takes to join LA and San Antonio atop the West and avoid the fates of Utah and New Orleans before them? I don't know. With the Nuggets there are so many variables at play one can't say for sure either way.
On the one hand, Billups was a tremendous stabilizing force for a team with a history of erratic behavior, but now that the expectations have mounted and the whole league will see them coming, can he keep them focused for another 82+ games? Also, while Afflalo has some defensive street cred in NBA circles, one of the things that made Jones so effective last year was his willingness to play dirty against some of the best wings in the game.
No defender is going to stop Kobe or Wade or Pierce, but will Afflalo be willing to get under their skin in an attempt to distract them like Jones would? Smith is more or less a turnstile on defense so Afflalo will need to impact the game at a level he's never been asked to reach before to keep Denver from losing the ground they've already attained, not to mention gaining more.
Put it this way; if Denver isn't at the level of the best yet, then they are probably immediately below them. They have more experience and have shown more fight than the Trailblazers and, despite their possible issues, have to be considered the third-best team in the West going into the season. Considering they keep losing key pieces each summer, that's a pretty good compliment to this Denver franchise.
PROBABLE STARTING LINEUP
PG – CHAUNCEY BILLUPS
Like so many clubs in this league, the Nuggets needed a leader last year. It wasn't about talent, because the club had talent to spare (and they were paying through the nose for it), but they didn't have that unifying force to make it all work. For years, the team had tried to wedge Carmelo Anthony into that role, but despite his gifts on the court, he wasn't a rallying force off of it. Now Carmelo can simply focus on doing damage as the team's most exceptional player and leave the leadership stuff to someone far more capable at the job. Plus, Billups now has an ideal protégé in Ty Lawson to tutor as his replacement – though that shouldn't be needed for some time yet.
SG – J.R. SMITH
This move, promoting Smith into the starting five, has the chance to galvanize this team or tear it apart. Smith needs shots to be effective, that's who he is. Last season, he was one of the most deadly sixth men in the league because he was allowed to beat up on second units with impunity. This year, he has to be far more judicious with his offence because he's got to balance his touches against those of Billups and Anthony right out of the gate. If he cannot, if he either refuses to make the extra pass or passes up shots too often, then this experiment doesn't work because Smith doesn't do anything else well enough to stick in this unit. This club struggled mightily trying to appease both Anthony and Allen Iverson before the latter was traded away and this could be a repeat of that very affair. However, if Smith can strike that balance between his own offence and that of his teammates, then he could open up the game for Billups and Anthony and help to bury teams before the game even reaches the second quarter. Like so much with this team, though, one has to see a level-headed Smith on offence before such a mythical beast can be believed to exist. Keep in mind, also, that Smith is going to miss the first seven games of the season after his 2007 reckless driving charge. If someone steps in and this team is on fire for the first seven games, will he be able to reclaim his spot when he gets back?
SF – CARMELO ANTHONY
It wasn't so much a knock on Anthony that he wasn't a great leader, it was just a reality he was forced to accept when he saw how Billups unified this team. Anthony may not score like he used to (or with the efficiency he once did), but he's a far more dependable player now within the team system. He and his teammates know that he is still perfectly capable of taking over a game when needed (by scoring 33 points in a quarter, for instance), but the team-first approach is what will win this club the most games. Anthony has found a way to fit into that without lessening the impact of his natural talents on opposing teams and while that may keep him from the status of LeBron or Wade, at least he can now approach them in terms of wins, especially in the playoffs.
PF – KENYON MARTIN
As nice as it must have been to finally have a fairly healthy and consistent Martin available last year, there is no doubt this club is counting down the days until July 1st, 2011 when his massive contract comes off of their books. He was never worth the max-level deal he signed in 2004, nor the three first-round picks Denver sacrificed to prevent New Jersey from matching their offer, but no one could have expected how dramatically this contract would hurt the Nuggets (like having to lose Camby for nothing because no one would take on Martin's contract). However, his willingness to play a little gritty has helped this team reshape their image defensively and so long as he has to be paid for another two years, it's nice that he's able to help this team into their new era since he's the only player (aside from Billups) on this team who's seen the NBA Finals and knows what it takes to get there.
C – NENÊ
14.6 points and 7.8 rebounds may not be killer per-game averages, but Nenê's 60% shooting sure was, as was the fact that he only missed five games the season after his recovery from testicular cancer. Nenê's play was so good that it completely mitigated the loss of Camby, even if his defensive or rebounding stats weren't as good. Nenê is a guy that finally discovered what it was to work throughout a game to help earn a win – he dug-in, played real defence and made his mark for this club. He, like Martin, is in no way paid in accordance with his on-court production, but he's a lot closer after last year and if he can stay healthy for the last three years of his deal (and produce like he did last season), people may actually be willing to swallow the idea that the signing wasn't such a huge bust after all.