The Ravens win if...
The Ravens have held Tom Brady in check as well as anyone save for maybe the New York Giants over the last few years. In their last four meetings with the Patriots, Baltimore has held Brady to just four touchdown passes and intercepted him seven times.
The Ravens will need to establish pressure on Brady and bait him into taking chances to give their ballhawks on defence a chance to create turnovers.
| 2012 Team Stats |
| Points |
BAL |
24.9 |
| NE |
34.8 |
| Pass Yards |
BAL |
233.7 |
| NE |
291.4 |
| Rush Yards |
BAL |
118.8 |
| NE |
136.5 |
| Points Allowed |
BAL |
21.5 |
| NE |
20.7 |
| Pass Yds Allowed |
BAL |
228.1 |
| NE |
271.4 |
| Rush Yds Allowed |
BAL |
122.8 |
| NE |
101.9 |
Offensively, the Ravens need to get good prodcution from Ray Rice. In last season's AFC Championship game the Patriots held Rice to just 67 yards on 21 carries. That isn't good enough. Baltimore will need Rice to look more like he did against Denver in the divisional round where he picked up 131 yards and a touchdown.
If Rice can get going, things should open up in the passing game for Joe Flacco who has been terrific in the playoffs so far, particularly when going deep. Flacco is averaging more than 20 yards per completion during the post-season and has 11 completions of greater than 20 yards.
Those type of numbers bode well for the Ravens in a matchup with the NFL's 29th-ranked passed defence that gave up a ton of big plays through the air during the regular season.
They will also need to shore up their special teams from last week. It's not often you can walk away with a win after giving up two return touchdowns.
The Patriots win if...
Success for New England starts where it always does: Tom Brady. With the Patriots victory over the Texans, Brady notched his 17th post-season win as a starter - the most in NFL history. If the Patriots offensive line can keep Haloti Ngata and the rest of the Ravens defensive line out of the backfield then Brady should be able to carve up the Baltimore secondary with his precision.
Yes, New England lost Rob Gronkowski to another broken arm which prevents the Patriots from running as many of their two tight end sets but that won't slow their offence down that much. It's not like they didn't put points up without Gronkowski when he was sidelined during the regular season. In the five regular season games without Gronk, the Patriots averaged 34.2 points.
Brady still has a bevy of talent to throw to with Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd. And in the backfield, Stevan Ridley and last week's breakout star Shane Vereen provide the Patriots with a nice complement to the aerial attack. The Patriots have a significant edge offensively.
On defence it's all about stopping the big play. New England gave up 74 passes of over 20 yards during the regular season. They can't allow that trend to continue against a Ravens offence that has thrived on the deep ball during the palyoffs. Aqib Talib, Devin McCourty and the rest of the Patriots secondary will need to step up.
A little pressure on Flacco up front would also help take some of the burden off the Patritos defensive backs.
