The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints continue to plow through their respective NFL seasons, as both teams remain unbeaten at 10-0. While I find it unlikely that both will finish the regular season without a loss, I do believe the Indianapolis Colts have the better chance to accomplish the feat of the two.
The Colts remaining regular season games include matchups against their three divisional opponents, plus a home date against the struggling Denver Broncos, as well as games versus the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. I believe the New Orleans Saints, on the other hand, will lose this upcoming weekend.
The New England Patriots will travel to New Orleans for what promises to be a great showdown between the two best offences in the NFL. While everybody knows how good the Saints are on offence (Number one in total offence in the NFL averaging 420 yards/game), many may have forgotten that the Patriots are actually second in the league in both passing offence and total offence. I think most fans anticipate that Drew Brees and Tom Brady will be exchanging touchdown passes throughout their showdown on Sunday, but I believe it will be the Pats defense that makes the difference.
The Patriots currently boast the second best scoring defense in the NFL, as they are giving up less than 17 points per game. There is no doubting how dominant the New Orleans Saints have looked at times this season, as they have been able to carve through their NFC opponents; but a closer look reveals that the toughest out-of-conference team the Saints have played, was the Miami Dolphins, a game in which the Saints overcame a 21 points deficit in order to win.
I still believe that the best teams in the NFL play in the AFC, and the New England Patriots at the moment seem to be at least the second best team in that conference. The Minnesota Vikings of the NFC have looked outstanding all season, but their sole loss came at the hands of defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburg Steelers of the AFC. I think Sunday's match up will be a terrific test for head coach Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints, to find out just how good they really are. We all understand that the Saints can roll over their divisional and conference foes, but what about an elite AFC team with players that have won Super Bowl rings? This match up will certainly provide some insight into whether or not the Saints have what it takes to even reach the Super Bowl, let alone win it.
In Need of a Change
The NFL needs to change its overtime rule. After watching the New York Giants win the coin toss in OT, and then march the football down the field to set up the game winning field goal it reminded me again of how much I dislike the rule. Why should the outcome of a game be influenced by a coin flip? I'm not trying to take anything away from the Giants this past week; after all they still had to line up and execute in order to win the game. But shouldn't the opposing team get an opportunity with the football before the game is decided? In my opinion, the NFL should allow each team at least one possession with the football in over time.
Each team would be afforded the opportunity to either return a kickoff OR each team would start a drive from their own 20-yard line. If the team with possession scores first, then the opposing team has at least the opportunity to tie the game on their ensuing possession, or go for the win by attempting a touchdown (with or without the 2 point conversion). If a turnover occurs, the ball is whistled dead, and the opposing team begins their first possession, or the game is over if the team that had the second OT possession assumed possession on the turnover. If both teams score equal points on their opening possession, than the game resumes, but under sudden death rules (like the current system). The first team to score wins the game.
I like this system better because it allows for each team to have at least one chance with the football. Both teams have been fighting their butts off for 60 minutes of the game just to send the contest into overtime and for the game to be influenced on a coin flip seems absurd. If overtime includes a kickoff for each team, then special teams comes into play, which seems fair considering that it constitutes approximately one-third of the game anyways. It is very difficult for teams to drive the football 80-yards and score, but if one team can accomplish the feat in OT and stop their opponent when it matters most, then that team deserves the win. Just a thought.
The Secret Weapon
Saints' wide receiver Robert Meacham had only two short catches this past weekend, but both went for touchdowns. It is obvious that both quarterback Drew Brees and play-calling head coach Sean Payton have a lot of confidence in Meacham, especially when inside the red zone. It begs the question: what do QB's look for in a red zone target? There are a lot of qualities that define successful wide receivers. These include route running, speed, and good hands. I believe there is one factor that weighs in a quarterbacks mind more than any of the others: trust.
The red zone is a simple concept. It is an area 30 yards long (including the end zone) and 53 1/3 yards wide. As an offence you are playing in a box, with a backline that the defense doesn't have to worry about you crossing. The passing windows become very small in this part of the field, and every passing play needs to be that much more precise and accurate. I've played with some great receivers throughout my career, but not all of them were great red zone targets. As a quarterback, you have to able to trust that your receiver will be in the right place, at the right time, and that he will come down with the football at all costs. There are many times that quarterbacks throw jump balls into the end zone, and they need to know that either their wide receiver will come down with it, or nobody will.
Size isn't necessarily a determining factor in whether or not a receiver will fight for balls thrown in the end zone. When I was with the Giants, Amani Toomer was our best (and one of our fastest) wide receiver, but high pointing the football in traffic was not his best asset. Ike Hilliard was a great red zone target, even though he was only 5'11 and not very fast. Ike could work the small windows in the end zone, and he had great body control to make awkward body catches that you so often see in this critical area of the field. Ike used to like when you threw the ball low, because he was flexible and could bend his body to secure the low throw, while shielding defenders away from it.
Most NFL teams have roll playing wide receivers. There are some that play every down, and there are some that only play on third down. There are some that are great blockers, therefore play more in running situations, and there are some that make plays in the red zone. Robert Meacham is one of those that makes plays for Drew Brees when the Saints are inside their opponents 20-yard line, and that is a good roll for him to play. Drew Brees and Sean Payton certainly believe so.
Head Case
After receiving a blow to the head, Pittsburgh Steelers' QB Ben Roethlisberger was forced to leave the game on Sunday, which helped result in a heart breaking 27-24 OT loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said he expects Roethlisberger to return soon, and if the 6-4 Steelers want to make the playoffs, they better hope the coach is right. To compound matters, Steelers' backup QB Charlie Batch sustained a wrist injury that requires surgery, and he'll be out at least six weeks. That means that second year QB Dennis Dixon might be the starter when the Steelers travel to Baltimore to take on their division rival this Sunday. Not good if you are Dennis Dixon or the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Playing Dixon against the Ravens ‘D' would be like throwing a lamb into a pack of wolves; the outcome won't be pretty. I would anticipate that if Roethlisberger isn't back completely healthy by mid-December, then the Steelers chance to defend their world championship is over.
The good news for the Steelers, in addition to Tomlin's suggested timeline, is that they host the Oakland Raiders before traveling to Cleveland to take on the Browns in the weeks following the Ravens game. I think that the Steelers defense and running game are good enough to win both of those games with Dixon at quarterback.
If Roethlisberger isn't healthy by then, the Steelers are doomed because they then have consecutive games versus the NFC wild card contending Green Bay Packers, before another meeting with the AFC wild-card contending Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers are desperately trying to keep pace with division leading Cincinnati, and the worst they can afford to be is 8-5 before playing Green Bay if they want to remain alive for a wild card berth.
The Steelers have brought in veteran signal callers Jeff Garcia and Cleo Lemon for workouts to try and build immediate depth at the position while Roethlisberger is out, but it is unlikely either could step in and execute the offence with such little time and chemistry with the offence.
I remember watching Dennis Dixon play at Oregon, and he was undoubtedly dynamic, posing a multiple threat with his ability to throw and run the ball. Dixon is also very frail looking, standing 6'3 and weighing 209 pounds. One big question is whether or not Dixon can remain healthy enough to even last three games! Dixon was the leading Heisman Trophy contender his senior season at Oregon, before an ACL injury late in the season ended his campaign prematurely.
It will be interesting to see how quickly Ben Roethlisberger can recover, as the Steelers Super Bowl defense will be depending upon it.