There was a time Deshaun Watson was expected to go very early in the first round.

He was fresh off a National Championship with Clemson, and the expectations were his stock would only rise when teams started interviewing the impressive young man. With a trio of quarterback-needy teams atop the draft order, it made sense to believe Watson would be one of the first players off the board.

Three months later, and only three weeks from the Draft, there are some who predict Watson could fall out of the first round completely. There have been no red flags, no disappointing workouts, no yelling at hospital workers. Just the fickle nature of the pre-draft process.

Watson’s roller coaster journey from January to April isn’t unlike any of the other potential first-round quarterbacks this year, a group that started at three with Mitchell Trubisky and DeShone Kizer alongside Watson, but has since grown to four with the recent addition of Patrick Mahomes.

With the exception of Mahomes’, who to date has only seen his name mentioned in the bottom third of the first round of mock drafts, landing spots for the “first round” QBs have varied between Top 5 to second round or even later.

In the murky business of draft prognostication, quarterbacks can often provide at least a little clarity. Teams with an obvious need at the most important position in sports can be expected to grab a QB as early as possible. A quarterback went first overall in six of the last eight drafts, none of them coming as a surprise.

But there’s no clear cut savior at the position this year. That isn’t to say a star won’t emerge from this year’s crop of quarterbacks, but they present riskier picks than in years prior when a Cam Newton or Andrew Luck was sitting in the green room. And without those chart-topping prospect grades locking them in atop the draft, there is no consensus draft spot for any of them. There’s not even a consensus order of when they’ll be selected.

This draft could play out similar to 2013’s for the quarterback class. Watson, Trubisky, and Kizer are a more skilled group than 2013’s EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, and Ryan Nassib, but the uncertainty surrounding where exactly they’ll end up is reminiscent.

Thinking back four years ago, most thought Smith would be the first off the board, but he lasted until the second round when the New York Jets took him 39th overall, 23 spots after the Buffalo Bills took Manuel off the board. And while part of Nassib’s pre-draft first round grade was based on speculation his college coach Doug Marrone, hired by the Bills that season, would select him, nobody thought he would drop all the way to the fourth round.

There’s no thinking a drop that drastic will happen to any of this year’s potential first round QBs, at least not from this corner, but it would also be a surprise if all four landed in the first 32 picks. The last time that happened was 2012, when the Cleveland Browns selected the fourth quarterback off the board, Brandon Weeden, 22nd overall, a pick they’d love to have back.

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The first three teams to pick in this year’s draft – the Browns, 49ers, and Bears – all share a long-term need at quarterback, but there’s reason to believe they will all pass, at least atop the first round.

The Browns, currently on the clock, are widely expected to grab Texas A&M pass rusher Myles Garrett first overall, the only perceived “lock” in this year’s draft. The 49ers meanwhile signed Brian Hoyer in the off-season. Hoyer is a bridge quarterback at best but his signing lends to the idea San Francisco could target a QB later in the draft, perhaps atop the second round. And the Bears likewise signed a quarterback this offseason in Mike Glennon, which suggests Chicago will at least push their need at the position further down the draft.

Players taken atop the draft are expected to make an impact right away, and while QB is the one position given some leeway – last year’s first overall selection Jared Goff didn’t start until Week 11 - it’s believed both Hoyer and Glennon signed with the first shot at starting behind centre promised.

The next QB needy team is the Jets, but even they might pass, not yet willing to admit they made a mistake in drafting Christian Hackenberg in the second round last year. If Todd Bowles and company want to give Hackenberg a chance to show he belongs, it’s unlikely they’ll grab a QB in lieu of one of their other roster needs.

The Buffalo Bills at No. 10 could be the next landing spot for a QB but even that seems unlikely at this point. It’s still not totally clear if the Bills think Tyrod Taylor is their long-term answer at the position, but after restructuring his deal into a new, two-year, $30.5 million pact, it appears evident they’re at least going to give the third-year starter another season to determine exactly what he is.

The Saints have too many roster holes to consider selecting Drew Brees’ eventual replacement at 11 so the next logical landing spot for a QB is the Browns second selection of the first round, No. 12. Pressure will be off Cleveland to land a sure thing at this pick with the perceived stud Garrett already in the fold, and they could have their top pick at the position waiting for them here.

It’s unclear exactly what Hue Jackson and the Browns front office thinks of Cody Kessler, who is currently atop the Browns depth chart at the position. After telling reporters they’ll just have to trust Jackson on how good Kessler will be after the team selected him in the fourth round last year, Jackson intimated he could only “work with what was given to him” in referring to Kessler after the season. And that was after Kessler showed some promise as a rookie.

The Cardinals, picking at 13, could make it two QBs in a row. Arizona has less roster needs than New Orleans and Carson Palmer appears closer to impending doom than Brees, so a QB makes more sense here than it does at 11.

The 17th spot is worth keeping an eye on next. Washington has a solid quarterback in Kirk Cousins, but he’ll be playing on the franchise tag for the second straight season which means next year could be his last with the team. Washington has stated their desire to lock up Cousins long-term, but there are reports the feeling isn’t mutual. If Washington is confident Cousins will bolt next offseason, they could be looking for his replacement at some point this draft.

There are a couple teams in the early 20s that could be looking to secure their long-term future at the position by selecting a QB as well. The Miami Dolphins, at 22, have been relatively lukewarm on Ryan Tannehill throughout his tenure with the team but last year’s playoff appearance should buy him at least one more year of goodwill. But at 23, the New York Giants could be thinking QB. Eli Manning earned the right to start as long as he wants with the Giants through his two Super Bowl wins, but he’s coming off a poor season and isn’t getting any younger. If the Giants think Eli is close to joining brother Peyton in retirement, they might look for a protege to learn under Eli’s tutelage for a couple seasons.

The 25th selection, held by the Houston Texans, is an increasingly popular spot to slot a quarterback in in mock drafts, but doesn’t make a ton of sense. The Texans are in win now mode, which is why losing out in the Tony Romo sweepstakes to a broadcaster was such a big loss. The last thing the Texans need is a rookie QB who could take a couple years to develop. Instead, Houston is likely looking for a way to add a veteran quarterback to their roster before next season.

A late round trade, and there are always a couple, could put another QB prospect into the first round, but outside of that, there aren’t the obvious matches of quarterback to team that most drafts present. A couple of these potential matches should pan out come April 27, but it could be a longer than hoped for wait for the four quarterbacks with first round aspirations.