Not a lot has changed in the AFC North over the years. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are still bitter rivals headlined by strong defensive units. The Cincinnati Bengals still flash offensive potential capable of striking at any moment. And the Cleveland Browns are still, well, the Cleveland Browns.

Last season, the division belonged to the Steelers who finished at 11-5 but ultimately fell to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens (8-8), Bengals (6-9-1) and the Browns (1-15) didn’t put up much of a fight, but things should be a lot closer in 2017.

The Ravens beefed up an already strong defence with some additions to a secondary that was tied for the NFL lead (along with the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs) in interceptions with 18 in 2016. The Bengals added a pair of young offensive talents in the draft to give Andy Dalton more weapons to work with. The Browns have a younger and more athletic defence that may experience growing pains, but are poised to be better than last season.

With the potential for the AFC West to churn out three playoff teams, the division-winner may be the lone AFC North team to reach the postseason. So, who has the best shot?

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have won more Super Bowls than any other team. After a deep playoff run in 2016, expectations in the Steel City are sky-high. And they should be. Pittsburgh has arguably the top running back in the NFL (Le’Veon Bell) and the top receiver (Antonio Brown). Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is likely bound for Canton one day, so the pieces for a Super Bowl run are certainly there. The big question is, can they get over the hump?

The Steelers are getting back wide receiver Martavis Bryant, who was suspended for the entire 2016 season after skipping multiple drug tests. The 25-year-old had 765 receiving yards to go along with six touchdowns in 11 games the season before, adding 194 yards from scrimmage in the 2016 AFC Wild Card Game. With Bryant back, he is sure to draw attention from opposing defences and could take some of the heat off Antonio Brown.

Rookie linebacker T.J. Watt – yes, he’s J.J.’s brother – dazzled in his preseason debut against the New York Giants, notching two sacks and six quarterback hurries. If the first-round pick is anything like his brother, the Steelers could be dangerous. 

Pittsburgh brought back most of their key free agents, but lost linebacker Lawrence Timmons – who spent 10 seasons with the club – to the Miami Dolphins. While Watt and linebacker Ryan Shazier should be able to fill the void, Timmons’ 677 career tackles and 35.5 sacks will not be easy to replace.

With most of their core pieces still left over from last season and the return of Bryant, the Steelers are favourites in the AFC North and should be right in the mix to get back to the Super Bowl.

Baltimore Ravens

Since the Ravens won Super Bowl XLVII in 2013, they’ve gone 31-33 and missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been dealing with back trouble throughout the preseason and it’s not yet known if he’ll be able to start Week 1. With a prolonged Super Bowl hangover and an aging core, if the Ravens get off to a slow start in 2017 pressure may start to mount in Baltimore.

The days of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are over, but an already strong Ravens defence got a lot stronger in the off-season. Baltimore drafted five defensive players and spent almost $60 million combined on safety Tony Jefferson and cornerback Brandon Carr.

They also made a much-needed addition to their receiving corps – Steve Smith Jr. retired after the season – by picking up 2014 Pro-Bowler Jeremy Maclin which could take some of the pressure off sophomore Breshad Perriman.

The Ravens didn’t lose a lot of key pieces in the off-season other than Smith and defensive lineman Timmy Jernigan, who they traded to the Philadelphia Eagles. If Perriman and Maclin are able to step up and replace Smith, the Ravens should be fine. If not, they may struggle in the passing game and be forced to rely on an inconsistent group of running backs.

The Ravens’ defence is as solid as it’s been in years, giving defensive coordinator Dean Pees plenty of options. As good as that is, the NFL is proving more and more to be a quarterback’s league. The question, “Is Joe Flacco elite?” may have been asked once or twice around the NFL over the years, but the answer may go a long way in determining the Ravens’ fate in 2017. With Flacco’s health in question, backup Ryan Mallett won’t be able to carry the Ravens for long.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals had a great 2015 regular season (12-4) and appeared to have the Wild Card Game against the Steelers wrapped up. But after a series of costly mistakes and penalties, they collapsed, losing 18-16.  They’ve been headed in the wrong direction ever since. They took a huge step back in 2016, finishing at just 6-9-1. With Andy Dalton and A.J. Green healthy at the same time, they’re out to return to the playoffs in 2017.

The Bengals didn’t do much in free agency, which could be a problem considering what they lost on the offensive line. They took wide receiver John Ross and controversial running back Joe Mixon with their first two picks, adding to two positions they were already deep at. The signing of linebacker Kevin Minter in free agency should help their middling defence, but they didn’t do much to address their problems on the offensive line.

Cincinnati had issues protecting Dalton in 2016, finishing tied for seventh in sacks allowed with 41. It might get worse this season because they lost their two best pass protectors in Andrew Whitworth (Rams) and Kevin Zeitler (Browns) to lucrative free-agent deals. If their young offensive linemen are unable to step up, things could get ugly in Southwest Ohio. 

As vulnerable as they are in pass protection, a duo as lethal as Dalton and Green isn’t easy to overlook. They also have the fourth-easiest schedule in the league, according to strength of schedule rankings. If they’re able to stay healthy and Mixon emerges as a clear No. 1 running back, they may have a shot at a Wild Card spot.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns’ 1-15 record pretty much sums up their dismal 2016 campaign. It was their worst season in franchise history, which is saying something considering they’ve finished above .500 just once in the last 15 seasons. Unfortunately for the Browns, not much is expected to change in 2017.

As most 1-15 teams do, the Browns stunk on defence. They finished 28th or worse in points allowed, points per game and yards per game. But, maybe, there’s hope. No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett and Michigan-standout Jabrill Peppers should be anchors of the defensive unit for years to come. Jamie Collins – acquired mid-season from the New England Patriots – is one of the top linebackers in the league and they have a new defensive coordinator in Gregg Williams. The additions of Zeitler and Tretter alongside Pro-Bowler Joe Thomas also give them a solid offensive line.

Not that there was a lot to lose in the first place, but the Browns managed to keep mostly everyone who factors into their core going forward. If Corey Coleman can emerge as a legitimate No. 1 receiver, the loss of Pryor doesn’t hurt all that much. The big problem is, will their quarterback play hold up? Rookie DeShone Kizer impressed in camp to win the job, but if he falls short, neither Cody Kessler nor Brock Osweiler are established starters.

Ultimately, it should be another tough season on the shores of Lake Erie, but the Browns are shaping up to be better than they were in 2016. They might not be the worst team in the NFL, either. The New York Jets lost a number of key pieces and don’t have a clear starter at QB, while the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are far from contenders. But, then again, with just one playoff appearance since 1995, it’s hard to expect anything from the Browns.