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TSN Soccer Analyst

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What does it mean?

It is a question we think long and hard about when it comes to live sport. Consumers have never had more access to it or more choice. What will you watch? What will you travel to? What will you demand a ticket for?

The competition is fierce. Leagues and events want your attention and your hard-earned money. They flirt with you, ask you to come over and spend time with them. But more and more educated sports fans are asking the question: What does it mean? Tell me if it matters.

Fans don’t need to ask that question when major tournaments are organized properly. They simply turn it on and watch. FIFA’s announcement on Tuesday that they will expand the World Cup to 48 teams in 2026 means even the most important football competition on the planet will no longer be exempt from serious fans of the sport saying no.

On the surface, almost a decade away, it seems unrealistic and it is clear it will be difficult to prove. The World Cup grabs the attention of billions worldwide. With more teams being invited to the big dance, even more eyeballs will be on the event. FIFA will generate an increase of between 10 per cent and 20 per cent in revenue. By the end of the 2026 tournament, they will say it was a remarkable success.

You can write their script now. In their mind they can predict and control many things even this far away. Record revenues, the host countries, venues, ticket sales, corporate deals and television ratings will be labelled as an unprecedented success, welcoming 16 new markets and adding close to an extra $1 billion to the bank.

Hosting the World Cup here in North America – as it is widely expected to be – will help all of this. Nowhere else in the world do consumers pay the amounts of money that Americans and Canadians pay to watch live sport. It’s not even close.

Stadiums will be full and the world will be watching. Then the games will begin and the predictions by the sport’s governing body will stop.

Expansion throughout history in major tournaments has taught us some harsh lessons.

Back in 1974, Joao Havelange secured the votes of the Afro-Asian block for his election as FIFA president (sound familiar?) by expanding the competition from 16 to 24 and then pushed it further before Sepp Blatter took over by moving the number to 32 for the 1998 World Cup.

Thirty-two was always a useful number to get down to 16, then eight, four, two and one, but the amount of poor World Cups with that number of teams outweighed the good ones. Brazil 2014 was a good tournament, sorely needed at a time when international football was losing relevancy against the club game. It also followed some extremely mediocre tournaments in 1998, 2002 and 2010, when far too many games were simply inadequate based on the dilution of talent. Yet, most of us still watched.

The same can be said about last summer’s European Championships in France. It was a tournament many saluted for expansion based on the success of teams like Wales and Iceland, but overall was found wanting in terms of quality. Like FIFA, UEFA offered more spots to teams in an attempt to generate more revenue and attention, but what ultimately suffered was the product on the pitch.

A thriving club scene — where players are making fortunes and all the best coaches are working — has long since overtaken the international game, which every season falls further and further in many of the key aspects that make the sport great.

During the season, international breaks that allow players to leave their club teams for meaningless ‘friendly’ matches or predictable qualifiers are seen as a distraction and a frustration to football fans around the world. The World Cup expansion will make qualifying even simpler for many and kill the real intrigue in the greatest qualification format of all in South America, where six teams from 10 are now expected to get through.

Where international football fought back and grabbed the love was at its major tournaments. They became true festivals of the sport where fans could cheer for their own and mix with people around the globe knowing the standards weren’t as good as the Champions League, for example, but content with what they were watching. Yes, major finals often disappointed and we’d get a Croatia versus Portugal ’16 or Switzerland versus Ukraine ’06 occasionally, but we’d still get major blockbusters and truly memorable, game-defining events.

Fans may have been content but the guardians of the game appear not to be. Their fear of those events becoming too exclusive and losing popularity to the club game has stoked their desire to expand and offer us more and more.

In North America, players are being asked to play a major summer tournament for a fifth successive year in 2017 following two Gold Cups (2013. 2015), the World Cup (2014) and Copa America (2016). South Americans had to play a gruelling World Cup qualification tournament in 2012 and 2013, a World Cup in 2014 and then back-to-back Copa Americas before another qualification cycle began. Players arrive at these tournaments exhausted, coaches don’t have enough time with their squads to create attacking teams and eventually well-drilled, organized teams are easier to put together, nullifying creativity.

Expanding from 32 to 48 will only increase the amount of poor matches played out by teams not fit to take part in the World Cup finals. The teams and fans will react accordingly. Limited sides, of which there will be many, will understand two draws could get them through.

At some point during June 2026 the World Cup group stage will be over. Forty-eight matches will have been played to eliminate 16 teams – one per group — leaving 32 teams ready to compete in a knockout-style tournament to lift the World Cup. That is just three games less than the entire amount of games played at last year’s European Championships just to eliminate 16 teams and get to the same amount of teams we are used to now.

A whole new generation of football fans are going to grow up learning to love the format as the only thing they’ve ever known, but how much appetite will even the most dedicated fans have to take in most of those games?

Ten summers is a long way off, but imagine a packed World Cup played out in cities like Mexico City, Vancouver, Chicago and others. It sounds fantastic until you realize the World Cup that you and I have fallen in love with looks nothing like that anymore. Imagine a World Cup like this (put together by a random draw) and tell me how many of the 48 group games you’ll absolutely have to watch:

Group A – Canada, Iran, Ghana
Group B – USA, Ukraine, Senegal
Group C – Mexico, Qatar, DR Congo
Group D – Argentina, Poland, Costa Rica
Group E - Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Ivory Coast
Group F – Italy, Japan, Algeria
Group G – Switzerland, Australia, Guatemala
Group H  - Brazil, Iceland, Honduras
Group I – England, Russia, Trinidad & Tobago
Group J – Chile, South Korea, Egypt
Group K – Spain, UAE, Nigeria
Group L – Uruguay, Greece, Cameroon
Group M – France, Croatia, Ecuador
Group N – Colombia, Uzbekistan, New Zealand
Group O – Portugal, Wales, Morocco
Group P – Germany, Netherlands, Panama

That’s right, you just read ‘Group P’! Don’t you dare call it the group of death.

Attention spans will drift in and out of the group stages until the real competition begins on the 49th match when the World Cup we all held in such high regard effectively becomes a five-round knockout-style tournament for the right to be called world champions.

Formats have come and gone throughout the 20 World Cup finals, but what has always been consistent is how difficult it is to win. That’s what makes it so special. Teams peak at different times and only Uruguay (1930) and Brazil (1970, 2002) have won all their games at the World Cup without the help of extra time.

Three group games allowed teams to build into the tournament but from 2026 teams will be asked to play five knockout games to win it all, ensuring the already fine line between success and failure is even narrower.

If you like games lacking real high-level quality, with low scores and surprise winners, the new World Cup could be just for you. It will be just like March Madness. Personally, I’d prefer any Cinderella teams be left at home.