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TSN Soccer Analyst

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It is a time of the year when managers put numbers on targets.

"Forty points, we still want to get to 40," said West Brom boss Tony Pulis last month.

It is a nice round number that is often used as a reference by managers to ensure their clubs are safe from relegation, to make them feel warm and comfortable away from any possibilities of the dreaded drop zone.

Despite it being a tally often referred to by many Premier League bosses in the bid for safety, it is an amount only three teams have reached and still been relegated in the last 19 seasons (since the PL went to 20 teams, something we will call PL-20 for the rest of this piece).

I was reminded of Ian Holloway's Blackpool, in the Premier League four years ago, recently when the Seasiders were relegated to the third tier of English football. Holloway was asked back in January 2011 how much more his team needed, having reached 28pts through 20 games. Whether he knew or not, the outspoken boss did not let on that no team in the previous 15 seasons had ever been relegated after getting to the 28-point mark through 20 games.

History was about to change. His side would go on to lose nine of their next twelve matches, leaving them on 33pts after 32 games.

The significance of this was when his team lost the 32nd match they fell below an average of 1.06 points per game for the first time that season. They wouldn't get to that level again as six more points in their final six matches meant they finished on 39pts and were relegated on the final day of the season.

Also relegated alongside Blackpool four years ago were Birmingham City who, much like their relegation cousins, found themselves among the record breakers for relegated teams. The Blues of 2010-11 became the first ever team since the league went to 20 teams after 1994-95 (PL-20) to ever lose their Premier League survival after getting to 38pts through 32 matches.

Birmingham's collapse four seasons ago has put all teams (and their analytics staff) not on 39pts already this season on high alert and some feel recent history shows it has become more difficult identifying just who is a prime relegation candidate. In the last three seasons alone, we have had examples of Wigan (2011-12) – winners of 7 of their last 9 - and Sunderland (2013-14) – winners of 4 of their last 5 - finding incredible late season form to drag someone into the relegation zone they vacated.

These results are in the minds of all when looking at the remaining fixtures but is it really the standard now that teams in the relegation zone suddenly become a better team because of what they are facing?

Statistics show otherwise.

32 games in, which teams look like teams who could go down?

Birmingham's case was an extreme one.  Not only are they the only team, of the 57 teams relegated in the last 19 seasons, to be relegated by getting to 38pts after 32 games, they are also the only team to have got more than 33pts after 32 games and still be relegated. In other words, 56 of the 57 teams relegated in the last 19 seasons had not gotten to the 34pts mark with six games remaining.

This season strengthens this case and puts the current bottom seven teams as this year's class of relegation threatened teams.

History tells us 98 per cent of those relegated failed to get more than 1.06 points per game (34pts) through the first 32 matches of the season. And less than 2 per cent (one team) were good enough to get at least 1.06 points per game through 32 games and still go down.

Should Newcastle, for example, somehow get relegated this season, they would join a very exclusive club.

Points Per Game

As identified above, only one team has averaged at least 1.06 PPG through 32 games and been relegated. 1.06 PPG is also relevant as it gets teams to that much-targeted 40-point mark through 38 matches. It is worth noting that the Birmingham side of 2010-11 were sent down after getting just one point from their final six matches and, thus, falling below 1.06PPG at the end of the season, finishing on 39.

In the last 19 seasons only, three teams from the 57 in question were relegated by averaging 1.06PPG (40pts or more), the last being West Ham in 2002-03 and that happened because two teams didn't even reach 27pts that season. With the bottom half becoming more and more competitive every season (16 of the last 21 relegated teams have got to the 30 point mark), it is fair to say 1.06PPG will keep you up in this era of the Premier League.

Play football at a 1.06PPG pace all season and you shouldn't be considered a relegation candidate. Simple.

What about teams who play that way for the majority of the season and collapse? If you play at that level for just two-thirds of the season and then regress, you have over an 88 per cent chance of staying up. Only seven of 57 teams relegated (12 per cent) under PL-20 had a higher average of 1.06PPG (27pts or more) through 25 games and were relegated. Everyone of them fell below 0.85PPG in the last third.

In other words, 50 of the 57 teams relegated under PL-20 failed to play at a 1.06PPG through 25 matches. In truth, there were few surprises. They looked like relegated teams two-thirds of the way through and proved it a few months later.

This is relevant when charting the current cases of WBA, Aston Villa, Sunderland, Hull, QPR, Burnley and Leicester. A popular cliché amongst football writers in the past has been 'this team is too good to go down'. None of these are. If someone says any are too good to go down, these stats prove otherwise as none have reached the key 34pts through 32 games.

Stats show that the recent cases of Sunderland and Wigan, like the Birmingham relegation, are clear outliers. Most teams in a relegation battle don't have a massive turnaround in results and the teams that eventually get relegated certainly don't.

It doesn't take a genius to understand what these teams look like at this stage of the season. Of the 56 teams who have been relegated by not getting to the 1.06 mark through 32 games (34pts), only 17 (30 per cent) were able to play above 1.06PPG (7pts or more) in the last six matches. This is not surprising. If you are a poor team threatened with relegation after nine months, it is unlikely an eventual relegated team can turn their fortunes around even if the inevitable (relegation) is sealed.

Points acquired by the 57 relegated teams in their last six matches:
0 – 2 teams
1 – 5 teams
2 – 5 teams
3 – 5 teams
4 – 9 teams
5 – 8 teams
6 – 6 teams
7 – 8 teams
8 – 4 teams
9 – 3 teams
10 – 1 team
11 – 1 team

It does not guarantee safety but it is clear teams who fall in the 30 per cent category and get seven or more points have a far better chance of staying in the league.

Here are the final points totals for the teams in question if they get 7pts in their last six.

WBA (40) Aston Villa (39) Sunderland (36) Hull (35) QPR (33) Burnley (33) Leicester (32*) (* Leicester have seven games left but the extra game in hand is at Chelsea). These have to be considered realistic targets for these teams to try and stay in the league. Stats show us it is highly unlikely more than one team will reach that tally or more and still be relegated.

Don't get to those numbers and you look far more like a relegation side. During PL-20, the average number of points claimed by relegated teams in their last six games is 4.8 (between 14 and 15 combined between the three each season).

Here are the final points totals for the teams in question if they get 5pts in their last six:

WBA (38), Aston Villa (37), Sunderland (34), Hull (33), QPR (31), Burnley (31), Leicester (30).

A glance at the potential points tally in the 30 per cent group (7pts in last six or more) shows that only Leicester would still be relegated when ran alongside the numbers above for average points tally for relegation teams.

Conclusion

Three of these seven will be officially relegated by May 24th. What these numbers all show is the importance of staying at or exceeding 1.06 points per game throughout the season. Play above that all season and you should never be labeled as a 'relegation candidate'. Through 32 games, seven teams haven't reached that and remain in danger. The numbers show us that the three who do go down will likely not get more than the points predicted by the 5pts per last six model. The chances of more than three of the bottom five playing above this are also very slim so don't be surprised if 35pts are enough to keep a team in the Premier League this season.