Tale of the tape: TFC has the edge on paper

As massive advocate for Canadian soccer, I want to say how fantastic it is that we are going to have a Canadian club in the MLS Cup final for the first time. It’s a huge happening for the sport in our country. I hope any sports fans on the fence will tune in Tuesday night for this all-Canadian Eastern Conference final between Toronto FC and the Montreal Impact.

The stakes couldn’t be higher: TFC gets a shot at redemption after last season’s playoff loss to Montreal. Both sides have International quality in their lineup and the atmosphere at the Olympic Stadium will be proper. I played there in front of 38,000 and it was electric. They are expecting more than 60,000 on Tuesday night!

Here’s how I see the teams stacking up on paper:

Form

TFC come into the first leg having lost just three times in their last 20 matches, including 12 victories. TFC has won four wins and a draw in their last five matches, scoring 15 goals while conceding just five. Toronto has fielded the same starting lineup for the last four games. The last time TFC lost away from home was on July 17 against the San Jose Earthquakes.

The Impact has eight wins and eight losses in their last 20 games. Montreal has three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five, with a goal differential of plus one over that stretch. Their last five home games have included two wins, two losses and a draw.

Advantage: TFC

Goalkeepers 

Clint Irwin had a fantastic start to the season and made some big stops during TFC's eight-game away spell. He was probably headed to the all-star game until he injured a quad against Orlando that kept him out for nine weeks. Since returning he has seamlessly come back into the side.

Montreal’s Evan Bush can make a wonder save better than most MLS keepers, but he will occasionally drop a clanger. I’ve witnessed his brilliance first hand, but I’ve also seen him chuck a few into the net. He has been immaculate so far in the 2016 playoffs.

Advantage: TFC

Defence

Since changing to a back three four games ago, TFC has conceded just three goals and have rarely been cut open. Drew Moor provides leadership, calmness and experience at the back. Nick Hagglund is athletic, aggressive and very good in the air. Eriq Zavaleta reads the game well, has decent distribution and will take confidence from keeping NYCFC star David Villa quiet in the last round.

Montreal's back four doesn’t make sense on paper, but it’s an entirely different story on the pitch. Belgium international and reigning 2015 MLS Defender of the Year Laurent Ciman anchors the defence alongside Victor Cabrera. Both are aggressive and always on the front foot. Hassoun Camara at right back is unorthodox but gets the job done. Ambroise Oyongo is pacey and excellent in one-on-one situations. He looks desperate to bomb forward but is being kept on a short leash.

Advantage: TFC

Midfielders

Michael Bradley, Jonathan Osorio and Armando Cooper patrol TFC’s midfield three. Bradley is thriving at the base of the triangle. He has been a beast defensively so far in the playoffs. Cooper is dynamic, can go past a player and has the ability to receive the ball under pressure. Osorio has made some great runs ahead of TFC’s front two and has been rewarded with goals. His strengths are his awareness and his ability to find and play in pockets.

Montreal have a very experienced midfield three that give the opposition little time on the ball, especially in their own half. Marco Donadel screens the back four. He plugs holes, condenses the game and has a decent delivery on set pieces. Former Canadian international Patrice Bernier is great in tight areas, economical with his passing and times late runs into the oppositions box well. Hernan Bernardello is an old-fashioned two-way midfielder. He is comfortable on the ball and will get stuck in.

Advantage: TFC

Forward

Sebastian Giovinco and Jozy Altidore make up the best partnership in MLS. Altidore is the focal point, which allows Giovinco to drift all over the pitch. Altidore is strong, physical, has soft feet and defensively sets TFC’s high press off. He has scored 13 goals in 17 games since returning from a hamstring injury. Giovinco is almost unplayable; get too close and he'll run in behind, give him time and its game over. Also, Giovinco is playing with a point to prove after MLS MVP and Italy call-up snubs.

Montreal’s front three always the team to sit in and be difficult to break down. When the Impact wins possession they get it to their front three as quickly as possible. Dominic Oduro gives them raw pace, while Matteo Mancosu offers mobility, goals and is playing like he does not want to return to the lower league in Italy. Ignacio Piatti has the ability to create something out of nothing. He has been a thorn in TFC’s side all season.

Advantage: TFC

Experience

TFC's starting lineup has an extra 348 MLS games in it compared to the Impact’s, but Montreal’s lineup is 2.7 years older. The Impact utilizes their experience to the fullest. Very rarely will you see them stretched, unorganized or make a costly error. The only worry is that the Olympic Stadium turf will not be kind on their ageing joints.

Advantage: Impact

Manager

Greg Vanney has utilized his entire squad all season to overcome injuries to key players and international call-ups. He has regularly changed systems to suit his players. Very rarely have players been out of position, overworked or rushed back from injury. The current 11 starters might not be TFC’s best 11, and Vanney might not be playing his ideal 4-4-2 diamond, but he’s found the winning combination of players in the 3-5-2 system.

Canadian Mauro Biello bleeds Impact blue. He signed his first playing contract in 1991 and went to play more than 300 games for the club, scoring 80 goals. He joined the coaching staff in 2009 and became interim head coach in 2015. He has a clear philosophy that his players have bought into: Be compact, difficult to break down and then hit teams on the counter via Oduro’s pace, Mancosu’s movement or Piatti’s brilliance. I believe Biello is getting the best out of his group of players. My only criticism is if they concede first they tend to look one dimensional. If they open up to chase the game, TFC will tear them to shreds.

Advantage: TFC

Prediction

It’s going to be a tight affair at Olympic Stadium. Montreal is a seasoned, well-drilled team. I expect them to try to bully TFC on their home turf, but TFC has stood up to physical play in the playoffs. If TFC score first, the series is over. Toronto will need a big game from Zavaleta to keep Piatti quiet. I think the Impact might be vulnerable on set pieces. They looked shaky at best on dead situations versus the Red Bulls in the last round. I don’t like their marking system because it leads to indecision. Bradley’s delivery has been spot on in the playoffs and TFC has some big targets in Hagglund, Zavaleta, Moor and Altidore. Giovinco is an absolute technician on any free kicks around the box.

TFC 1 Impact 0

TSN soccer analyst Terry Dunfield was a professional soccer player for more than 17 years. He started his career at Manchester City, making his EPL debut at 19. After 13 years in England, Terry returned to Canada to play in the MLS for the Vancouver Whitecaps and Toronto FC. He was a member of Canada's national soccer team throughout his career.