Jul 28, 2017
The state of the Jays as trade deadline nears
TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips says elite teams like the Astros, Dodgers and Nationals will add important pieces before the MLB trade deadline on Monday.
With Monday's non-waiver trade deadline looming, TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips examines the Toronto Jays' strategy going in. He also provides reports on TSN SportsCentre, TSN Radio and TSN.ca from the Rogers Centre throughout the weekend with up-to-the-minute updates and analysis.
The clock is ticking toward the July 31, 4 p.m. trade deadline. Of course, deals can still get done after the deadline but players either have to be claimed on waivers (and a deal worked out between the claimant and original club) or pass through waivers to make that happen.
Typically, if you really want to acquire a player it’s better to get the deal done before the deadline. There are no guarantees you’ll win the waiver claim or that a player will clear waivers after July 31.
As a seller, it is better to make a deal before the deadline as opposed to during the waiver period. Prior to the deadline, clubs have leverage because they can sell to multiple teams. If a player gets claimed during the waiver period, then he can only be traded to that one team. It’s hard to make a good deal with only one club interested.
The Blue Jays have proclaimed themselves both buyers and sellers as the deadline approaches. If they buy, they will only acquire players who offer control beyond this season. If a deal doesn’t get done before the July 31 deadline, this type of player won’t clear waivers and won’t likely get to them on waivers. So, if the Jays don’t buy now they won’t be buying until the off-season.
If the Jays are going to sell, guys like Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano, Jose Bautista and Joe Smith could be on the move. If a deal isn’t struck by the deadline, it will be because the underperformance of the players has limited the market or the return wasn’t worth the reduction in competitiveness at the big-league level.
The only player who wouldn’t likely get through waivers in August is Joe Smith, because he has performed well and has a reasonable contract.
The likelihood is that any deal for Liriano, Estrada and Bautista would include the Jays having to eat some part of their salary so they will all clear waivers. If a club claims any of the three, the Jays can give them to that club to get out from the remaining salary. This will allow Toronto to trade them to any interested team, so, if they perform better in August a trade market could pop up.
Yankees inquire about Giancarlo Stanton
One buying team that has been very active is the New York Yankees. They acquired Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox and have been tied to Oakland’s Sonny Gray and Yonder Alonzo as well.
The most interesting rumor surrounding the Yanks is their possible inquiry about Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton has $295 million remaining on his deal through 2027 with Miami and has an opt-out after the 2020 season.
It is a monster contract to say the least. It’s far too big of a contract for the Marlins to afford as a small-market club. They just don’t have the revenues to pay his contract while maintaining the ability to put a competitive team around him. The contract reduces the number of ways they can build a team because they have no margin for error on the rest of their roster. Plus, if he gets hurt they have no chance to compete because they are so reliant upon him. Small-market teams need to spread the money around the roster to have any chance at balance. Certainly, the Yankees can afford a deal like this more than the Marlins can.
One man’s burden is another man’s opportunity. With an ownership change pending in South Florida, any move of Stanton seems unlikely right now. New owners will have to decide how they want to build their franchise. If they want to trade Stanton, they will find takers. The sale will likely be finalized before the end of the calendar year, which could put Stanton in play at the Winter Meetings.
The decision that big-market teams will have to make is whether to move on Stanton now or wait for the 2019 free agent class, which includes guys like Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper. Any dollar invested in a Stanton trade now might prohibit another big signing later.
The other issue for the Yankees or others to consider is whether giving up talent plus adding payroll is worth it on Stanton, when other stars will be available as free agents. Plus, the fear that Stanton could opt-out of the deal after the 2020 season could limit his value a bit as well.
The reality is that the Yankees may be able to afford Stanton and Harper in a couple of years. Of course, that isn’t likely because they still would have Aaron Judge. But Judge paired up with either of the other two would be quite a powerful starting point for the Yanks.
This does highlight how general managers need to consider one-year, three-year and five-year plans when they evaluate personnel options and decisions.
Raines gets his Cooperstown moment
This is Baseball Hall of Fame induction weekend in Cooperstown, where Jeff Bagwell, Pudge Rodriguez and Rock Raines will all be inducted.
It took Raines until his final year on the ballot to muster up the votes for induction. He started with 24.3 per cent of the ballots in 2008 and finally got in with 86 per cent of the votes this year. Remember, to be inducted a player’s name needs to appear on 75 per cent of the ballots. It took Raines the full 10 years allowed to finally get the necessary votes.
It’s always odd to me that it takes players that long to finally be appreciated. I have always believed that if you are a Hall of Famer, you are a Hall of Famer. You shouldn’t have to earn your induction during your time on the ballot. Players earn it during their careers.
That being said, I can kind of understand why it took the baseball writers some time to look at Raines differently. Baseball fans have come a long way in player evaluations. The old stats of batting average, RBI and runs scored don’t mean nearly as much today as they once did. The deeper analytics are better at telling the story of a player’s career: on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS +, WAR.
For instance, Tony Gwynn was rightfully a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but it took Raines 10 years despite the fact that Raines’ numbers were better than Gwynn. Yes, Gwynn had more than 3,000 hits and a slightly higher OBP (.388 to .385) but Raines reached base 22 more times than Gwynn in 137 fewer plate appearances. Raines out homered the Padres outfielder and he out stole him 808 bases to 319 bases. Raines also had a better WAR than Gwynn. This isn’t a criticism of Gwynn, who should have been a first-ballot guy. As a leadoff hitter, Raines did it a bit differently but just as effectively. He finally got his due.
Also, being inducted into the Hall of Fame this weekend is longtime commissioner Bud Selig. It’s an appropriate honour considering all of his accomplishments during his leadership role of the game: The game’s attendance numbers and revenues grew exponentially, 18 new stadiums were constructed, interleague play was expanded, the wild card was added to the playoff format, expansion to 30 teams, growth of MLB Advanced Media, the longest run of labour peace and the implementation of one of the strongest drug testing programs in professional sports.
Selig is the best commissioner baseball ever had
Many people seem to be bothered by this honour for the former commissioner as he is so closely tied to the steroid era. He will forever be known as the commissioner of the steroid era but the reality is that he could not unilaterally implement drug testing without union approval. He got the players’ association to agree to threshold testing in 2003, which has since evolved into what is in place today. He was the commissioner of the steroid era but he did something about it.
Spitting Seeds
- Longtime Royals and Braves baseball executive John Schuerholz will be inducted into the Hall of Fame this weekend as well. I once told him that if I ever had to pick him out of a police lineup I would need him to turn around because I only know what he looks like from behind. My Mets teams chased Schuerholz’s Braves for six years. I never was in front of him to see his face. Schuerholz is as well-respected as anyone I met in the game. He is intelligent, articulate and has an understanding of the game that is remarkable.
- Also, congratulations to Claire Smith, the 2017 J.G. Spink Award winner. She is the first woman to ever earn the award. She was the first female beat writer in Major League Baseball when she covered the Yankees for the Hartford Courant from 1983 to 1987. She was a pioneer in the game, opening the door for other women in the industry. It took a lot of courage to deal with the isolation and ridicule heaped her way early in her career. Claire currently serves as an editor for ESPN. She is one of the kindest people I have met in my career.
- Umpires seem to be getting a bit ornery these days as there have been a few odd ejections this week. Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre was ejected in the eighth inning of the game Wednesday night with his club trailing 18-8. Beltre had already had three hits in the game and was just four hits away from 3,000 career hits.
In the eighth inning Beltre was due up after outfielder Nomar Mazara. As Mazara stepped in the batter’s box, second-base umpire Gerry Davis called time and walked in from his position to talk to Beltre. He instructed Beltre to move from where he had positioned himself while waiting for his turn to hit. Beltre had creeped close to home plate as is his normal practice, but for some reason Davis decided this was the moment to confront it. Beltre stated his case that he has always stood where he was and does it to avoid getting hit by a foul ball. Davis told him he needed to stand on the on-deck circle which is mat placed in the dirt near the dugout. Beltre walked over and picked up the mat and moved it to where he had been standing and stepped on it. Davis took this as Beltre showing him up and embarrassing him so he ejected the Rangers third baseman.
It sure would have been better if Davis had found a way out of the confrontation without an ejection, but I understand why he did it. Beltre can be a playful, fun-loving guy and if he had smiled or joked when he moved the mat there may have been a way out for Davis. But once the umpire told Beltre to move and the future Hall of Famer got defensive and then smart-alecky, he had to be ejected. Both parties are to blame, not just the umpire as everyone seems to think.
I have never seen what happened in the Jays-A’s game on Thursday. John Gibbons got ejected for arguing balls and strikes. Shortly thereafter, home-plate umpire Will Little ejected Marcus Stroman and Russell Martin for a very mild reaction to a missed called strike.
This was a textbook example of an umpire losing complete control of the game. Little could have given Gibbons more rope than he did, but Gibby has a reputation and often doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt. Stroman and Martin were yanked out of the game and it compromised the Jays chances to win (which they did anyway).
All three ejected Jays will get a fine of some sort. The umpire needs to be disciplined as well for failing at his job. I wish baseball would announce when they take action on umpires so the players can feel like there is justice in both directions.
- It sure feels like there are three elite teams in baseball and everyone is just trying to earn the right to lose to them in the postseason. The Astros, Nationals and Dodgers are so much better than everyone else. And the rich will get richer.
The Dodgers have won 36 of their last 42 games and are currently 40 games over .500. Even without Clayton Kershaw they are tough to beat. They have won 48 consecutive games in which they’ve had a lead at any point in the game. The Dodgers will likely add one of Justin Verlander, Sonny Gray or Yu Darvish to their rotation.
The Nationals slugged eight homers in their 15-2 victory over the Brewers on Thursday, including four in a row and five in the third inning alone. Max Scherzer struck out nine in six innings of work and won his 12th game. Even though the Nats placed Stephen Strasburg on the DL, they are a scary team. They may add another reliever before the deadline passes. A.J. Ramos, Addison Reed and Justin Wilson are targets.
The Astros have dealt with their fair share of injuries too. Their ace Dallas Keuchel is due to come off the DL on Friday. At some point they will also get shortstop Carlos Correa back from his thumb injury. Their offence is the highest scoring by far and they start off every game with a chance to outslug their opponent. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow keeps saying he won’t overpay to get a starter, but he will. He must. They might be good enough to win it all, but they definitely need another predictable starter. Gray and Darvish are targets in Houston.
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Steve Phillips was general manager of the New York Mets from 1997 through 2003, helping lead the club to a National League championship in 2000 and its first World Series appearance since 1986. His analysis appears each week on TSN.ca, TSN Radio and SportsCentre.