TSN.ca MLB Preview: NL Central

Can the Cards overcome a tragic off-season? Can the Bucs keep their wild card luck rolling? Is the future finally here at Wrigley? TSN.ca previews the National League Central.

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72, 1st in NL Central)

Here’s the truth about the Cardinals. If it weren’t for the San Francisco Giants, we’d be talking about this team as a generational dynasty. Over the last 11 years, the Cards have won two World Series, four pennants, six division titles and have only missed the playoffs three times.

Unfortunately for the Cards, the post-La Russa era has been one of coming up just short. Sure, they’ve made three NLCS and one World Series under Mike Matheny, but can the post-Pujols Cards break through?

The key in recent years has been breakthrough prospects: The Cards have had a top-three finisher in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in three of the last five years, including Kolten Wong last season. Oscar Taveras was to be the next great light. Shockingly, he was killed in a car accident in the Dominican Republic in October.

The rotation must fight off some early-spring injuries – including Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn – to get off on the right foot.

Similarly, phenom Michael Wacha looks for a healthy season after missing almost three months of 2014 with a stress fracture. He’ll also want to forget about the series-ending bomb he gave up in game 5 of the NLCS.

The team shipped young righty Shelby Miller to the Braves in exchange for a Gold Glove right-fielder with pop in the form of Jason Heyward, not to mention some bullpen help in Jordan Walden. The Cards are undoubtedly hoping Heyward still has his .800-plus OPS, 70-plus RBI form in him, instead of his .735, 58-RBI form of 2014.

Though the team will enter 2015 with a heavy heart, they are still a team that means business and the favourite to claim a third straight Central crown.

In: RP Matt Belisle (free agent - COL), IF Mark Reynolds (free agent - MIL), SP Carlos Villanueva (free agent - CHC).

Out: 2B Daniel Descalso (free agent – COL), 2B Mark Ellis (retired), SP Justin Masterson (free agent – BOS), RP Jason Motte (free agent – CHC), RP Pat Neshek (free agent – HOU), C A.J. Pierzynski (free agent – ATL).

Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74, 2nd in NL Central)

If we’re to believe what we’ve been told, the loss of Russell Martin will have a deep effect on this year’s Pirates. The narrative when he signed in Toronto was that he was an essential clubhouse guy who was worth well beyond what his numbers dictated. That’s pretty strong praise for a guy who posted a .400-plus OBP and garnered a few MVP votes last year.

But Martin was just one cog in a very effective Pirates machine. Andrew McCutchen is one of the best all-round players in baseball and the club had 10 players reach double digits in homers last season and seven drive in more than 50 runs.

They bolstered their starting rotation, as well, after losing de facto number-one Edinson Volquez to free agency by reacquiring A.J. Burnett from across the state. The 38-year-old has been good for at least 190 innings and 10 wins in six of his last seven seasons and will help save the Bucs’ bullpen arms, if nothing else.

The team needs Pedro Alvarez to turn it around to make up for some of the lost offence. The good news is he cut down his K-percentage last season, but his power numbers were nearly halved from his standout 2013 showing (granted, in 30 fewer games). However, the addition of Antonio Bastardo fortifies an already-strong bullpen.

Pittsburgh has become a staple in the Wild Card Game over the past couple years. No reason to not like their chances again in 2014. 

In: RP Antonio Bastardo (trade - PHI), SP A.J. Burnett (free agent - PHI), C Francisco Cervelli (trade - NYY), OF Corey Hart (free agent - SEA), RP Brad Lincoln (free agent - PHI).

Out: RP John Axford (free agent - COL), IF Clint Barmes (free agent - SD), 1B Ike Davis (trade - OAK), RP Ernesto Frieri (free agent - TB), RP Jeanmar Gomez (free agent - PHI), C Russell Martin (free agent - TOR), SP Wandy Rodriguez (free agent – ATL), 1B Gaby Sanchez (non-tendered - unsigned), SP Edinson Volquez (free agent - KC), RP Justin Wilson (trade – NYY).

Milwaukee Brewers (82-80, 3rd in NL Central)

While 2014 was a step towards respectability for the Brewers, it’s hard to believe that it was the beginning of an upward trend. Wily Peralta emerged as the rotation’s best arm. However, the remnants of the club were largely middle of the pack.

Neither Matt Garza (who saw more starts than he had since 2011, but posted a .500 mark in his first season as a Brewer), nor former ace Yovani Gallardo (who maintained his career averages but won a career-low eight games) were particularly bad, but they didn’t dominate either. The end result saw Gallardo shipped off to Texas, while the Brewers have three years (at least) left on Garza’s deal.

The offence has potential moving forward. After all, Aramis Ramirez and Ryan Braun* aren’t that far removed from being top run-producers and Carlos Gomez has been the team’s best player for the last two years on both sides of the ledger. Adding Adam Lind at first provides greater everyday stability than flipping a coin between Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay, but his bat can be very streaky.

The likely resurgence of the Reds should push the Brewers back down to fourth in the division. But, if they can figure out how to project the .700-plus team they were through April last year over any meaningful stretch, they could surprise.

In: RP Neal Cotts (free agent - TEX), 1B Adam Lind (trade - TOR), IF Donnie Murphy (free agent - ATL), RP Chris Perez (free agent - LAD).

Out: RP Zach Duke (free agent - CHW), SP Marco Estrada (trade - TOR), SP Yovani Gallardo (trade - TEX), RP Tom Gorzelanny (free agent - DET), 1B Lyle Overbay (free agent – still unsigned), C Matt Pagnozzi (free agent - ARI), IF Mark Reynolds (free agent - STL), RP Francisco Rodriguez (free agent – still unsigned), 2B Rickie Weeks (free agent - SEA).

Cincinnati Reds (76-86, 4th in NL Central)

The Reds’ luck ran a bit thin in 2014.

Despite Johnny Cueto returning to the world-beating, bat-missing ace he was prior to an injury-riddled 2013, the Reds missed the post-season for just the second time in five years. A lot of that blame falls on the team’s bats since the staff landed in a tie for third in the NL in quality starts and Aroldis Chapman once again broke 30 saves (in addition to a ridiculous average of nearly two strikeouts per inning).

The Reds still have power to spare with Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier both posting 25-dinger, 80-RBI seasons in 2014. If Jay Bruce can rediscover his 30-plus/90-plus form from the previous three seasons and Joey Votto can not only find his elite OBP potential,  but also his MVP-calibre production, the Reds can once again be a legitimate playoff contender.

Another x-factor for the Reds is Billy Hamilton’s ability to terrorize the base-paths. His 56 swipes ranked second in the NL last season, but there’s a marked difference between first-half Hamilton, who hit .285 with 38 steals and cashed 47 times and his second-half incarnation that made a living on the Mendoza Line.  He also hit .405 on first pitches, which would be way more impressive if he weren’t .171 when trailing in the count.

In: RP Nate Adcock (free agent - TEX), RP Burke Badenhop (free agent - BOS), OF Marlon Byrd (trade - PHI), OF Brennan Boesch (free agent - LAA), SP Anthony DeSclafani (trade - MIA), RP Kevin Gregg (free agent - MIA), SP Paul Maholm (free agent - LAD).

Out: IF Jack Hannahan (option declined – still unsigned), OF Chris Heisey (trade - LAD), SP Mat Latos (trade - MIA), OF Ryan Ludwick (free agent - TEX), RP Carlos Marmol (released – still unsigned), RP Ryan Rowland-Smith (released – still unsigned), SP Alfredo Simon (trade - DET).

Chicago Cubs (73-89, 5th in NL Central)

It seems like we’ve been hearing how good the Cubs are going to be for years. So, is this the season we finally see it start to come together?

Theo Epstein certainly acted like the time is either now - or very soon – over the off-season, locking up the most coveted starter available. The addition of Jon Lester gives the Cubs a bona fide ace for what is likely to be the remainder of his career, or at least the highly-productive part of it. He also added some depth with the re-acquisition of Jason Hammel, who should be the number three.

The real test of this Cubs team is how quickly the future can catch up with the present on the field. Wrigley fans got a glimpse of Javier Baez last season, with the young Puerto Rican hitting three bombs in his first three games. However, his spring struggles earned him a Triple-A stint to start the year at least. Key young pieces Jorge Soler in the outfield and third baseman Arismendy Alcantara will provide the true read on whether the Cubs can contend this year or whether they’ll be angling for another building block in the 2016 MLB Draft. The ongoing developments of Addison Russell, Baez and presumed Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Kris Bryant (whenever he gets his call-up) will be another development angle for the north-siders to watch.

Make no mistake: The future for the Cubs is bright. But it’s tough to believe that the future is now, especially in a division that is traditionally one of baseball’s strongest.

In: OF Chris Denorfia (free agent - SEA), OF Dexter Fowler (trade - HOU), SP Jason Hammel (free agent - OAK), 2B Tommy LaStella (trade - ATL), SP Jon Lester (free agent - BOS), C Miguel Montero (trade - ARI), RP Jason Motte (free agent - STL), C David Ross (free agent - BOS).

Out: OF Justin Ruggiano (trade - SEA), RP Dan Straily (trade - HOU), 3B Luis Valbuena (trade - HOU), RP Aroldis Vizcaino (trade - ATL), SP Carlos Villanueva (free agent - STL), C Eli Whiteside (retired).