TSN.ca MLB Preview: NL East

Can anyone touch the Nats' pitching? Are the Marlins in for a youth movement? Will the Phillies be historically bad? TSN.ca previews the National League East.

Washington Nationals (96-66, 1st in NL East)

The Washington Nationals fully expect to win the World Series in 2015 and they better win the World Series in 2015 because this might be their best shot in a league where a team’s window to win closes ever faster.

Arguably no team in Major League Baseball has a rotation at its disposal near the quality of the five guys the Nats can throw at you. To wit, Tanner Roark, a pitcher who won 15 games a season ago, has no place in it. The quintet of Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez is as strong a rotation in recent memory and when your “weak link” (Gonzalez) is a former 20-game winner, then you’re laughing. No team since the 1973 Oakland Athletics has boasted three 20-game winners (Ken Holtzman, Vida Blue and Catfish Hunter). This Nats team may be the best bet to repeat this feat.

Offensively, the biggest loss for Nats is that of Adam LaRoche who takes his 26 home runs and 92 RBI from a year ago to the south side of Chicago. Ryan Zimmerman, whose arm has begun to fade a bit, shifts over from third. A full year out of Zimmerman, who missed 101 games last season with a hamstring injury, should offset LaRoche’s production. Anthony Rendon, who finished fifth in NL MVP voting last season, will shift over to third, but he’ll start the season on the DL, still rehabbing from a knee injury. With news that Rendon has visited Dr. James Andrews, fears that his stay on the DL could be prolonged are growing. Yunel Escobar, traded twice in the offseason, was slotted in at second, but likely moves to third with Rendon out, meaning Danny Espinosa could move back to second. Silver Slugger Ian Desmond stays at short.

The Nats will also likely start the season with two-thirds of their outfield on the DL. Jayson Werth (right shoulder) and Denard Span (core muscle) aren’t projected to be ready for Opening Day, but aren’t expected to miss significant time. Bryce Harper, limited to 100 games last season with a variety of injuries, remains in left. Escobar will likely inherit Span’s leadoff duties for the time being.

In the bullpen, the biggest change comes in the late innings. Drew Storen, the team’s on-and-off closer over the past few seasons, enters 2015 established in the role with both Rafael Soriano and Tyler Clippard no longer in the mix. Eighth-inning duty will be handled by Casey Janssen, who has saved 83 games over the past three seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays.

With Zimmermann, Desmond, Span and Fister all free agents after this season, time is truly of the essence for the Nationals to capture the franchise’s first World Series. If this team plays to its potential, then the 47-year championship drought for the franchise could be at its end.

In: SS Yunel Escobar (trade – OAK), RHP Casey Janssen (free agent – TOR), RHP Max Scherzer (free agent – DET).

Out: LHP Jerry Blevins (trade – NYM), 2B Asdrubal Cabrera (free agent – TB), RHP Tyler Clippard (trade – OAK), 1B Adam LaRoche (free agent – CHW), RHP Rafael Soriano (free agent), OF Steven Souza, Jr. (trade – TB).

Atlanta Braves 79-83, 2nd in NL East

The Braves made one of the earliest transactions of the offseason, but it was a bit of a head-scratcher in the trade of Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals. Yeah, Heyward’s numbers (.271 with 11 home runs and 58 RBI) dictated what you would term as an off-year for the player, but he’s 25 and capable of a 30-home run and 100-RBI season.

If the Heyward trade perplexed, then the deal of Justin Upton to the San Diego Padres confounded. The Braves were second last in the NL last season with just 545 RBI as a team and trading both Heyward and Upton meant giving away 160 of those RBI without a real plan to replace them. On top of this dearth of production, Upton’s older brother, Melvin (the former Bossman Junior) is expected to be out until at least May, still in a walking boot from sesamoiditis, meaning that the Braves will start the season with an entirely new outfield.

One of the new outfielders is Nick Markakis, who celebrated his new four-year deal with the Braves by promptly having offseason neck surgery. Injuries aside (he’s expected to be ready for Opening Day), Markakis is a risky proposition. A free agent after the Orioles declined a $16 million option, Markakis is six seasons removed from his last 100-RBI campaign and hasn’t broken 60 since 2011. It’s difficult for him to be viewed as an answer for the obvious lack of production, but Markakis remains one of the finest right field gloves in baseball.

Freddie Freeman just missed out on his fourth-straight 20-homer season last year and will be relied upon to be the team’s offensive leader in 2015.

On the mound, the Upton trade reaped Shelby Miller from the Cards and he’ll slot in the rotation behind ace Julio Teheran. Miller is only 24 and figures to have his best days ahead of him. However, his strikeout-to-walk rate took a big dip last season. Alex Wood, free agent signing Wandy Rodriguez and Mike Minor will round out the rotation, but Minor isn’t expected back until the beginning of May.

The strongest pitching spot for the Braves is closer Craig Kimbrel. In his four seasons in the MLB, Kimbrel’s lowest save total was 42 in 2012. If there are save opportunities to be had, Kimbrel will lock them down.

The Braves missed the playoffs for the first time in three seasons last year, but it doesn’t look like a return to the postseason is coming any time soon. If it weren’t for the Phillies, the Braves would be on track for residency in the NL East basement.

In: 2B Alberto Callaspo (free agent – OAK), OF Jonny Gomes (free agent – OAK), RHP Jason Grilli (free agent – LAA), RHP Jim Johnson (free agent – DET), IF Kelly Johnson (free agent – BAL), OF Nick Markakis (free agent – BAL), RHP Shelby Miller (trade – STL), 2B Jace Peterson (trade – SD), C AJ Pierzynski (free agent – STL).

Out: RHP Brandon Beachy (trade – LAD), IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio (free agent – CHW), RHP Gavin Floyd (free agent – CLE), RHP Aaron Harang (free agent – PHI), OF Jason Heyward (trade – STL), RHP Kris Medlen (free agent – KC), RHP Ervin Santana (free agent – MIN), OF Justin Upton (trade – SD), RHP Jordan Walden (trade – STL).

New York Mets (79-83, 3rd in NL East)

It seems like the Mets just can’t catch a break.

Ace Matt Harvey missed all of last season after tearing his UCL late in August of 2013. Without their best pitcher, the Mets had yet another middling year and their sixth-straight sub-.500 finish.

Spring training started optimistically with a healthy Harvey back to anchor what could be a very good rotation with last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, Jacob deGrom, Jonathan Niese, the ageless Bartolo Colon and Zack Wheeler. Of course, the optimism wouldn’t last because Wheeler was felled by the exact same injury that removed Harvey from the equation early in spring training.

The injury to Wheeler was regrettable, but the underlying story might be even worse. After his MRI that found the UCL tear, Wheeler revealed that he’d been experiencing arm discomfort for some time and had been playing through it. Mets GM Sandy Alderson and manager Terry Collins both insisted that due diligence had been done with testing Wheeler’s arm over the past couple of seasons, yet even the very suggestion of possible mismanagement is troubling when you consider the number of good young arms the Mets have in Wheeler, Harvey, deGrom and top prospect Noah Syndergaard. While Dillon Gee will start the year as Wheeler’s replacement in the rotation, the team is still open to dealing the 28-year-old who has hit double-digits in wins twice over his five-year career. Even without Wheeler, though, this is an above-average rotation and the prospect of a healthy Harvey and more of the same from deGrom should frighten the rest of the National League.

In the field, the Mets’ highest-profile addition this offseason is outfielder Michael Cuddyer, who came aboard on a two-year deal. The signing is a curious one as Cuddyer is 36 and missed most of last season with a shoulder fracture. Still, he is only a season removed from a batting title and provides solid leadership in one of the younger clubhouses in the National League.

The Mets showed their faith in centrefielder Juan Lagares, signing the 26-year-old to a four-year, $23 million extension with a club option. Lagares, a Gold Glover in his sophomore 2014 season, is already one of the best defensive outfielders in the game and showed a significant improvement at the plate. The Mets believe they can still get more out of the Dominican offensively and, if they do, this could end up being a terrific piece of business.

Daniel Murphy, a constant in trade talks, starts the season on the DL with a hamstring strain and is heading into his final year of his contract. A versatile player, Murphy is a dependable bat, but can never seem to make the leap from good piece to indispensable one.

While the injury to Wheeler hurts the Mets, there’s enough quality here to allow this team to hang around in the National League. The playoffs this season might be a goal too ambitious for the Mets, but they’re not going to be a soft touch and an above-.500 finish is more than a realistic aim.

In: LHP Jerry Blevins (trade – WAS), RF Michael Cuddyer (free agent – COL), LHP Alex Torres (trade – SD).

Out: RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (free agent – Japan).

Miami Marlins (77-85, 4th in NL East)

At this point, listening to somebody pitch the viability of the Marlins as a contender is like sitting through a timeshare presentation for a South Beach condo. Sure, it sounds pretty great on paper, but you just know there’s going to be some terrible catch to it.

Well, the 2015 Marlins should be a contender, but yes, we’ve heard this before.

There was the great spending spree of 2012 that saw the acquisitions of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell and Carlos Zambrano that resulted in a 69-93 record and the jettisoning of all of those players a year later. That fancy new ballpark that Jeffrey Loria got the taxpayers of Miami-Dade County to pay for sat almost empty, a costly white elephant.

The skepticism around a contending Marlins team is understandable, but there’s a very easy rebuttal to any incredulity and he goes the by the name of Giancarlo Stanton.

Stanton, who signed a monster 13-year, $325 million extension in November, is the most exciting player in the game whose last name isn’t Trout. He does have an opt-out after six seasons, but the 25-year-old is arguably the best player in the NL and will anchor this Marlins lineup for the foreseeable future.

Christian Yelich was also locked up long term (seven years, $49 million). A Gold Glover in his first full season that saw 660 plate appearances, Yelich is a feature - along with Stanton and Marcell Ozuna (23 home runs and 85 RBI a year ago) – of one of baseball’s finest outfields. Ichiro Suzuki, 156 hits short of 3,000, will come off of the bench.

The Marlins also made over their rotation, partly out of necessity. Young ace Jose Fernandez won’t be available until June after missing most of last season with Tommy John. When Fernandez returns the rotation could be one of baseball’s most complete, but even without the 22-year-old, a quintet of Mat Latos, Henderson Alvarez, Jared Cosart, Dan Haren and Tom Koehler is nothing to sneeze at.

Haren is the most interesting name of the bunch. Acquired in the trade that sent top prospect Andrew Heaney (since traded again to the Los Angeles Angels) to the Dodgers for speedster Dee Gordon, Haren appeared to strictly be a salary dump, as Haren had no desire to leave Southern California and was set to retire. The Marlins talked the 34-year-old into reporting to the team and the three-time All-Star had an impressive spring training. The best part about having Haren in the back end of the rotation, though, is the fact that the veteran’s salary has been completely absorbed by Magic Johnson and company.

The Nationals will remain the class of the NL East, but a young, talented core and above-average pitching staff could keep the Marlins in the hunt for a first playoff berth since 2003’s World Series victory.

In: RHP Jared Cosart (trade – HOU), RHP Aaron Crow (trade – KC), OF Dee Gordon (trade – LAD), RHP Dan Haren (trade – LAD), RHP Mat Latos (trade – CIN), 1B Michael Morse (free agent – SF), RHP David Phelps (trade – NYY), IF Martin Prado (trade – NYY), OF Ichiro Suzuki (free agent – NYY).

Out: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (trade – NYY), OF Garrett Jones (trade – NYY)

Philadelphia Phillies (73-89, 5th in NL East)

The Phillies won the World Series only seven years ago, but at this point, it might as well have been 70. Simply put, this is going to be a long year for the Phillies.

Cole Hamels appears to be the only vestige from the team’s recent halcyon days whose best years could still be ahead of him, but there’s certainly no guarantee that those will be spent with the Phillies.

Cliff Lee’s season is already likely over. The 36-year-old former Cy Young Award winner will start the year on the 60-day DL, yet the fact of the matter is that he needs season-ending surgery on his pitching elbow and that’s not going to change in 60 days. Considering his age and recent injury history, it’s easy to see why Lee and the team might choose to prolong the inevitable, but Lee’s career seems to be coming to an end.

Ryan Howard can’t be given away. Like those World Champions of 2008, Howard’s usefulness seems like it was eons ago. Now 35, the former NL MVP still has two years remaining on a five-year, $125 million deal (which, to be fair, didn’t seem all that egregious at the time it was signed in 2011) and the Phillies will reportedly eat all but $10 million of it, yet the team just cannot find a buyer. Howard managed to knock in 95 runs last season and hit 23 home runs, but he had a miserable .323 OBP and struck out a league-high 190 times. Howard leaves manager Ryne Sandberg with the quandary of a player being paid too highly to sit, but not good enough to play every day.

Closer Jonathan Papelbon is an interesting case. Owed $13 million this season and a vesting option for the same in 2016, GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has made it no secret that he’d like to move the five-time All-Star to help bring down an estimated $157.7-million payroll. Papelbon is open to the idea, admitting interest in the offseason in the Toronto Blue Jays and Milwaukee Brewers, two teams rumoured to have been sounding out moves for his services. Ken Giles, who was outstanding in his rookie season, is Papelbon’s heir apparent, but the Phillies don’t have to trade the 34-year-old because he still is very useful after a 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 39-save 2014 campaign.

What isn’t so nice is what Sandberg has at his disposal in terms of a rotation. Behind Hamels is a bit of a piecemeal group of veterans looking to prolong their MLB careers and prospects who might not be ready yet. With Lee out and AJ Burnett and Kyle Kendrick defecting to the Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies, respectively, veteran Aaron Harang slots in behind Hamels. The 36-year-old is a long way removed from back-to-back 16-win seasons with the Cincinnati Reds (2006-2007), but he did post a 12-win season last year with the Atlanta Braves.

The one positive? The Phils currently have a deep prospect pool that includes a potential masher, Maikel Franco, a long-term successor to Jimmy Rollins in JP Crawford and good young arms like Zack Eflin, Aaron Nola and Tom Windle. Before these kids are ready, though, Phillies fans will have to sit through some pretty terrible ball for the immediate future. 

In: RHP Chad Billingsley (free agent – LAD), RHP Aaron Harang (free agent – ATL).

Out: RHP Antonio Bastardo (trade – PIT), RHP AJ Burnett (free agent – PIT), OF Marlon Byrd (trade – CIN), RHP Kyle Kendrick (free agent – COL), SS Jimmy Rollins (trade – LAD).