TSN.ca's 2014-15 NBA Season Preview: Northwest Division

With the regular season right around the corner, TSN.ca profiles each NBA division before the first tip. TSN Basketball analyst Jack Armstrong also gives his pick for division champ and a player to keep an eye on this season. We start with the Northwest where Kevin Durant's injury throws a monkey wrench into the Oklahoma City Thunder's plans to compete for an NBA Title and Canadian phenom Andrew Wiggins looks to make his mark with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

 

Denver Nuggets

Coach: Brian Shaw (second season)

GM: Tim Connelly (second season)

Last year: 36-46, fourth in Northwest (11^th in Western Conference)

Playoffs: Did not qualify

Notable additions: SG Arron Afflalo (acquired from Magic), SG Gary Harris (acquired from Bulls) and C Jusuf Nurkic (acquired from Bulls)

Notable subtractions: SG Evan Fournier (traded to Magic), PG Aaron Brooks (signed with Bulls), C Jan Vesely (signed with Fenerbahce) and PF/C Anthony Randolph (traded to Bulls)

 

Last season’s Nuggets were rudderless. General manager Masai Ujiri jumped ship to the Toronto Raptors and head coach George Karl, the NBA’s reigning Coach of the Year, was fired before the season started after losing a game of chicken with management. Their best player, Andre Iguodala, sought greener pastures in Oakland. And then there were the injuries. Danilo Gallinari missed the entire season. JaVale McGee was lost after the first five games. Ty Lawson, Nate Robinson and Wilson Chandler all missed 20 or more games. The injuries, coupled with a seeming inability to play anything close to competent defence, doomed any playoff aspirations.

The good news for the Nuggets is that everybody is healthy and it’s almost impossible for any injuries this year to outweigh last season’s. The bad news is that the Nuggets are still poor defensively and will have to change that in a hurry if they hope to return to the postseason in an ultra-competitive Western Conference.

It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Kenneth Faried was dynamite for the US at the World Cup and his ability to harness that momentum into the NBA will go a long way to reward the Nuggets for the faith placed in the Manimal with his long-term extension. Faried is already a feared presence on the glass, but he will need to use his sheer athleticism to add another phase to an overall defensive game that needs a lot of honing. Too often, Faried is guilty of ball-watching and finds himself easily outmatched in the key. The Nuggets believe that there is another facet to Faried’s game and now is the time for the player to show it.

If there is a major strength to this Nuggets team, it’s offence with multiple weapons. Arron Afflalo returns to the Nuggets, having emerged as a legit scorer with the Magic. Combined with Lawson, the two could form one of the most potent backcourt combos in the West. While Lawson is a criminally underrated point guard, lost in what is not exactly the league’s sexiest market, and consistently dangerous in transition, he’s limited by his size and tendency to slow down as a game goes on. Rookie Gary Harris out of Michigan State should get opportunities to spell the pair, as too will the deft with the deep shot, Randy Foye. A deep bench with the likes of Gallinari, JJ Hickson and Nate Robinson will also add to the offensive punch. When the Nuggets keep things up-tempo, they’re fun to watch and difficult to deal with.

Still, it all comes down to defending with the Nuggets. The return of JaVale McGee will help solidify protection in the frontcourt, but Timofey Mozgov doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of the rest of the West. Shaw will also hope that Croatian rookie Jusuf Nurkic will challenge Mozgov for minutes. Still, it’s uncertain as to how long it will take Nurkic, who does have a lot of upside, to transition to the North American game. He remains a project until then.

The Nuggets have the potential to run an effective, crowd-pleasing offence. Getting stops is what will kill them.

Projected finish: Third in the Northwest (11th in the Western Conference)

 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Coach: Flip Saunders (first season)

GM: Milt Newton (third season)

Last year: 40-42, third in Northwest (10^th in Western Conference)

Playoffs: Did not qualify

Notable additions: SF Andrew Wiggins (acquired from Cavaliers), PF Anthony Bennett (acquired from Cavaliers), C Thad Young (acquired from 76ers), SG Zach LaVine (drafted) and PG Mo Williams ($3.75M, one-year deal)

Notable subtractions: PF Kevin Love (traded to Cavaliers), SF/PF Luc Mbah a Moute (traded to 76ers) and SG/PG Alexey Shved (traded to 76ers)

 

Kevin Love was entering a contract year. Kevin Love, a Los Angeles boy, was not going to re-sign with the Minnesota Timberwolves. He was walking and would be gone for nothing. If you can accept this premise, then you have to be impressed with the haul that Milt Newton got for Love in the two top picks in the last two drafts and a talented big. Considering that the last time the T-Wolves traded a franchise player, the 2007 deal of Kevin Garnett to the Boston Celtics, the team got quantity (five players, two firsts and money) and not exactly quality, the fact that Love has turned into some impressive building blocks for the future has to be seen as a win for the team. When you’re talking about a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in a decade (the longest drought in the NBA), hope is essential and it’s here now.

The T-Wolves have the pieces to be a very good team in the near future. It’s just not going to happen right now.

Love was the Timberwolves and losing him will impact just about every facet of their game. The offence ran through him and he was a monster on the glass. You can’t replace a player like that and the T-Wolves won’t…this year.

Of the players acquired in the Love deal, it will be Young who is best suited to contribute now. Lost in the mediocrity that was the Sixers, Young is a dependable, if undersized, option at the four. He can score and is a capable defender. He won’t come close to replicating Love’s slash lines, but he can carry some of the offensive burden and ideally develop a rapport with Pekovic, another player who will see increased responsibility. After a career season offensively last year, the big Serb will be asked to do more in the paint without Love.

Ricky Rubio must match his flashiness with consistency. Perhaps the best passer in the NBA right now, Rubio struggled mightily last year offensively (though, he’s never really been a good shooter) and is headed into a contract year. The team and the talented Spaniard are in contract talks and an extension could be on the table, but the concern is obviously whether or not he can live up to his immense potential and be counted on as a key cog in the team’s future plans. The possibility of Rubio running an offence with the likes of an Andrew Wiggins and the freakishly athletic Zach LaVine for years to come is a highlight package producer’s dream. Money isn’t an issue when it comes to the extension. It’s whether or not Rubio warrants the commitment. Frankly, that still remains to be seen.

As for the Canadians, their time is not now. Wiggins could be a generational talent. A gifted scorer with agility and the ability to become a shutdown defender has reminded more than a few people of a young LeBron James, the player who it looked like for a while might act as tutor for Wiggins in his rookie season. Moving out of Cleveland could end up being a blessing for the Thornhill, Ontario native. There are no expectations of immediate greatness in Minnesota and the room for growing pains is substantially larger there than it would be on a team looking to win right now. Any mistakes (and there will be mistakes) made by Wiggins would be magnified under the spotlight that will exist in Cleveland this season and that is never conducive to a young player's growth.

Wiggins will start behind Kevin Martin and be eased into the rotation by Saunders, back for his second spell as T-Wolves coach. Martin is a smart player who was slowed down by injuries in his first year with the T-Wolves. There are a lot worse players that Wiggins could have found as a mentor. Martin is currently struggling with a groin strain and if that is to recur over the course of the season, Wiggins might find himself starting sooner than later.

Anthony Bennett had a miserable rookie season and that’s all it took for the Brampton, Ontario native to be mentioned in the same breath as Michael Olowokandi, Greg Oden and Michael Beasley as first-overall busts. After working on his fitness and putting on some upper body mass, Bennett has the opportunity to turn the page on last year and remind people why he was taken first overall out of UNLV. The 21-year-old was seen as somewhat of a throw-in to the Wiggins/Love deal and that can only help. Bennett has a decent midrange shot for a player of his size and that’s something that Saunders will want to cultivate by giving Bennett minutes in the right situations. A frontcourt that includes Bennett, Young, Pekovic and the improving Gorgui Dieng could develop into an impressive one with the proper enrichment.

Barring the unforeseen, this will be another year on the outside looking in when it comes to the postseason for the Timberwolves and the team will probably regress from flirting with .500 like it did for most of last year. Still, it’s easy to see why fans of this team are legitimately excited about the future. It won’t happen today and maybe not tomorrow, but the Minnesota Timberwolves might be on the cusp of something special.

Projected finish: Fourth in the Northwest (12^th in Western Conference)

 

Oklahoma City Thunder

Coach: Scott Brooks (sixth season)

GM: Sam Presti (eighth season)

Last year: 59-23, first in Northwest (second in Western Conference)

Playoffs: Lost in Western Conference Final

Notable additions: SG Anthony Morrow (three-year, $10M deal), SF Josh Huestis (drafted) and PF Mitch McGary (drafted)

Notable subtractions: SG/SF Thabo Sefolosha (signed with Pistons), PG Derek Fisher (retired), SF Caron Butler (signed with Pistons) and C Hasheem Thabeet (traded to 76ers)

 

It’s funny how quickly things change.

Kevin Durant withdrew from the USA Basketball team that eventually won gold at the FIBA World Cup ostensibly to focus on the upcoming season and attempt to finally get the Thunder over the hump and capture an NBA Title. Fate, of course, had different plans for the reigning NBA MVP and the broken foot that he suffered in early October will keep Durant out for six to eight weeks.

This is Durant’s first-ever significant spell on the sidelines. Up until now, the 26-year-old has missed only 16 games in his seven years in the Association.

Playing without an injured superstar is nothing new for the Thunder, considering Russell Westbrook’s myriad knee injuries (the point guard missed 36 games last season) and Serge Ibaka going down in last year’s playoffs, but losing Durant’s 32.0 PPG is a heavy blow. In a worst-case scenario, Durant could miss 20 games and that would mean losing the five-time All-Star for dates with Western Conference rivals the Portland Trail-Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors. In what will undoubtedly be a tight race in the conference, a game early in the season is just as crucial as one later on and the Thunder will need to be able to shoulder his absence.

The injury to Durant is bad enough, but the Thunder have more than just their talisman to contend with when it comes to being banged up. Rookie Mitch McGary broke his foot in his first preseason game. Kendrick Perkins is dealing with a strained quad. Both Nick Collison and Ibaka have been felled by ankle injuries. The extent of Reggie Jackson’s wrist injury is still unknown.

Every team will have trips to the infirmary over the course of 82 games, but no club wants them to occur this early and this frequently.

This is certainly going to test the depth and mettle of this Thunder team. Westbrook will be asked and expected to carry more of the scoring load with Durant out, but in doing so, Westbrook needs to be measured and make sure that the potential offensive imbalance doesn’t result in turning into a Rudy Gay-esque black hole of bad shots.

Perry Jones is not Kevin Durant. He isn’t close to Kevin Durant and to expect him to be would be foolish, but the third-year pro should finally get his chance to make his mark on the team in the Slim Reaper’s absence. Brooks hasn’t shown any real level of trust with the 23-year-old out of Baylor in his first two seasons, yet the Thunder still believe that the lanky Jones has the skills to produce at an NBA-level. The same goes for Jeremy Lamb, who could even be utilized at the three if Brooks intends to go small. This is a huge opportunity for both players to stake their claim for not only more playing time, but expanded roles when Durant does return. Steven Adams, clearly the team’s centre of the future, will also be counted on to continue his development, as well, and could even find himself as the team’s starter before season’s end.

Damage control is the name of the game for the Thunder. If the team can weather the storm with Durant out, expect them to once again be in the conference’s upper echelon. It’s only when Durant will return that we can truly gauge whether or not this team can finally reach the NBA summit. Durant’s spell on the sidelines could result in the Thunder relinquishing the division crown to the Blazers and a lower than desired playoff seeding, but that’s of little consequence at this point.

One more thing to consider: Durant is a free agent in 2016. Don’t think for a second that the way the Thunder performs in these next two seasons won’t go a long way in determining Durant’s future plans. The team is built to win now and needs to do so.

Projected finish: Second in the Northwest (fourth in the Western Conference)

 

Portland Trail Blazers

Coach: Terry Stotts (third season)

GM: Neil Olshey (third season)

Last year: 54-28, second in Northwest (fifth in Western Conference)

Playoffs: Lost in Western Conference semi-finals

Notable additions: PG Steve Blake ($4.2M, two-year deal) and C Chris Kaman ($9.8M, two-year deal)

Notable subtractions: PG/SG Mo Williams (signed with Timberwolves)

 

Dame Lillard has a chip on his shoulder and this should make the Western Conference uncomfortable. The All-Star point guard is angry because he got cut from USA Basketball’s FIBA World Cup squad in the summer ahead of their gold medal triumph in Spain. Coming off of another fine season where he upped his PPG and his outside shooting, the 24-year-old was cut in favour of a Derrick Rose, who still isn’t 100 per cent, and some extra bench bigs. If Lillard needed any more motivation to try to stake his claim as the Association’s top point guard, he’s got it now and the Blazers stand to benefit from it.

Still, success is not guaranteed for a Blazers team stuck in what is once again a logjammed Western Conference rife with very good teams. The tools are here for another solid season, but they must be properly utilized by Terry Stotts and his staff and expectations must be measured.

The Blazers are no longer an unknown commodity. Coming off of a 33-win season, the year prior, Rip City stormed out of the gates last season to the tune of a 31-9 record. That’s not going to happen this season because nobody will be sleeping on them and they start the year with five of their first six games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers. This will be baptism by fire.

Helping out the cause this season will be the additions of Steve Blake and Chris Kaman. The Blazers had the fewest bench minutes in the league last year. It might have been that Stotts had supreme confidence in his starters (and his two All-Stars in Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge). It might have been a lack of faith in the likes of a Thomas Robinson, CJ McCollum and Will Barton. It might have been both. With Blake and Kaman, Stotts has a pair of proven veterans who are capable of playing important minutes and spelling his starters. Kaman can slot in at either centre or power forward to give time off to Aldridge and Robin Lopez, who nicely acquitted himself in his first year in Portland with a solid campaign, and Blake can run the offence and allow a rest for the tireless Lillard. While Stotts will undoubtedly place confidence in his veterans, it’s imperative for him to see what he has with his younger charges. Robinson, a former fifth-overall pick, has boundless athleticism and the potential to emerge as a key big, but the stench of an awful rookie season with the Sacramento Kings and an inability to make any sort of impact with the Houston Rockets keeps the label of “bust” hovering around him. Robinson was very good in limited minutes last season, enough so that an increase should be warranted. The same applies for McCollum, who was buried behind Mo Williams last year.

The Blazers will see the injury to Kevin Durant as an opportunity to get a jump on the Thunder, but time is of the essence for another reason: contracts are up. Aldridge is a free agent at season’s end and he will be getting paid. Whether that’s in Portland or elsewhere remains to be seen. Lopez and Wesley Matthews are also in contract years. The potential for this to be a very different-looking team come next year is great. Time, then, for the Blazers is of the essence.

Projection: First in the Northwest (third in Western Conference)

 

Utah Jazz

Coach: Quin Snyder (first season)

GM: Dennis Lindsey (third season)

Last year: 25-57, fifth in Northwest (15^th in Western Conference)

Playoffs: Did not qualify

Notable additions: PG Dante Exum (drafted), SF Rodney Hood (drafted), PF Trevor Booker (two-year, $10M deal) and SF Steve Novak (acquired from Raptors)

Notable subtractions: F Marvin Williams (signed with Hornets), SF Richard Jefferson (signed with Mavericks) and C Andris Biedrins (waived)

 

 

The Jazz were the worst team in the West last season and it cost Ty Corbin his job.

Going off the board a little, the Jazz hired former Los Angeles Clippers assistant Quin Snyder in June to take the reins of the 25-win team from a year ago. Make no mistake about it, nobody envisions Snyder a miracle worker. Snyder has proven himself, both on an NBA and NCAA level, to be capable of working with young players and the aim for this season in Salt Lake City is progress. This is more than likely yet another lottery team, but there are good pieces in place here and it’s going to be up to Snyder to properly use and cultivate them over the course of a frustrating year.

While it’s going to be up to Snyder to attempt to get a good feel for his charges, the Jazz’s young players will need to show Snyder how capable they are of handling adversity and set the table for the future.

Dante Exum, the fifth-overall pick in this past June’s NBA Draft, is of tantalizing potential. His off-the-charts speed, almost preternatural ability to draw fouls and equal adeptness at passing and scoring bode well for the coming years. Exum fancies himself in the Kobe Bryant mold, but it’s far, far too soon to be making such a comparison. He’s never played against anything close to NBA competition, his frame is so slight that he looks like he’ll be swept away in a strong wind and his decision-making still leaves a lot to be desired. Right now, Exum is a project, but that’s alright for a team like the Jazz where he come in from the bench and not feel any pressure to contribute immediately. That’s not say Exum won’t be given significant minutes over the course of the year, but that he won’t be bogged down by the weight of unfair expectations.

Exum’s high profile could also be a blessing for their other first-round pick this past June in Rodney Hood. The former Duke swingman is already one of the Jazz’s best shooting options and can slot in at the two or the three. His athleticism is well above average and in a few years’ time, his selection at #23 could prove to have been a steal.

The Jazz don’t have a true out-and-out superstar and number-one scoring option. Thanks to an offer sheet from the Hornets, Gordon Hayward is now paid like a superstar, but he regressed in many ways last season, namely in field-goal percentage. The new hefty contract ($63M over four seasons) is by no means an albatross for a team as far from the cap ceiling as the Jazz are, though, the team expects return on their investment. Hayward has bulked up over the offseason and the team will hope that leads to greater assertiveness that he’s shown him capable of in the past.

Alec Burks is the interesting piece for the Jazz this season. He’s restricted after this year and the Jazz have proven that they’re not afraid to lock up their players as they did with Derrick Favors last year and in matching Hayward’s offer sheet. The 23-year-old two-guard will move to a starting role this season after excelling as a sixth-man last year. Making a smooth transition will be crucial for Burks, who only started 12 games last term. Burks has a deft scoring touch and likes to drive. With more minutes, he should expect to see a ton of time at the foul line considering his knack for drawing fouls. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see Burks finish as the team’s top scorer this year.

Burks’s glaring weakness is the defensive side of his game, where it wouldn’t be unfair to deem him a liability. Of course, you could make that argument of just about every player on this team. The Jazz’s lacklustre defending sunk them on so many nights last year and it’s likely to do so again this season. They were the worst defensive team in the league last year, giving up 100.9 points per 100 possessions. One of the main reasons why Corbin was dismissed was his inability to get this team to improve defensively at all as the year progressed. Snyder certainly has his work cut out for him in this regard.

One player to watch (and one who could be an answer defensively) is Rudy Gobert. Hardcore Jazz fans are in love with the potential shown by the French big, who played in this summer’s FIBA World Cup. If the 22-year-old can develop some edge, he could turn into the nasty defender this club sorely needs.

Projected finish: Fifth in the Northwest (14th in the Western Conference)

 

Jack Armstrong's Pick:

Oklahoma City Thunder - They adapted last year without Russell Westbrook and they'll piece it together early without Kevin Durant. They won't win the Northwest as convincingly as some would expect, but Reggie Jackson and Serge Ibaka will be even better this year. The residue of winning in the past is still here and Scott Brooks has a good environment in place.       

 

 

 

 

Jack Armstrong's Player to Watch:

LaMarcus Aldridge, Trail Blazers: Aldridge is in a contract year and he's has already stated his desire to stay put in Portland. He's developed into a remarkably consistent and highly productive player who was great year for team last season. Can the Blazers duplicate last year's success? I'm not sure they're as good, but Portland is certainly still a playoff team. He's the difference-maker for Rip City and, in my opinion, he doesn't get enough attention for how good a player he really is. I like him a whole lot.