TSN.ca's 2014-15 NHL Season Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

With the NHL regular season right around the corner, TSN.ca profiles each team leading up to puck drop. Next up is the Toronto Maple Leafs – whose biggest summer moves weren't made on the ice, but behind the bench and in the front office. Catch up on their off-season moves and the issues they face this season, as well as their analytical breakdown by TSN's Scott Cullen.

Division: Atlantic   GM: Dave Nonis   Head Coach: Randy Carlyle

2013-14: 38-36-8 (6th in Atlantic)   Playoffs: Did not qualify

Goals For: 222 (14th)   Goals Against: 252 (26th)  PP: 19.8% (6th)   PK: 78.4% (28th)

That Was Then:

The Leafs started the season positively enough, battling throughout the fall in a tight Atlantic alongside new divisional rivals Detroit and Tampa, as well as long-time foes Boston and Montreal.

Phil Kessel was producing at a monster clip, posting 57 points through January and the team looked to have sorted out its need for better goaltending with Jonathan Bernier.

The team rolled through October on Kessel's play as well as the grit and leadership provided by Dave Bolland.

Even after Bolland's season was derailed by an ankle injury, the Leafs continued to make it work, getting second-line production out of Mason Raymond.

The team rode a pair of hot streaks, including a six-game point streak that ended with a dramatic shootout victory in the Winter Classic over the Red Wings and securing points in 13 of 15 games entering the Olympic break.

Sitting second in the Atlantic Division on Mar. 14, the Leafs looked poised to make the playoffs for the second straight season. They took two out of three games on a difficult Western road trip and looked poised for home ice in the first round of the playoffs.

But it was at that exact moment that the wheels came off.

Losing Bernier to a lower-body injury thrust Reimer into the starter's role for the next five games and the team failed to register a single point over that stretch.

By the time Bernier was back in the crease on Mar. 25, the Leafs had just a one-point grasp on a playoff spot but even the netminder's return couldn't turn the tide. The team ran its pointless streak to eight, finishing the season on a 2-12 run that sent it hurtling all the way down to eighth overall on the draft board.

Scott Cullen's Analytics

Key: GPG= goals per game, GAA= goals-against per game, SH%= even-strength shooting percentage, SV%= even-strength save percentage, SAF%= score-adjusted Fenwick percentage (differential of shot attempts faced vs. shot attempts, excluding blocked shots, adjusted for game score), PTS%= percentage of available points.

Analysis:

Games 1-20: Spectacular goaltending from Jonathan Bernier made it easy for the Leafs to overlook terrible possession numbers.

Games 21-41: Goaltending still strong, but not strong enough to overcome sad possession stats.

Games 42-62: As goaltending faltered, with Bernier out, a scoring surge kept the Leafs in the hunt.

Games 63-82: Possession numbers dropped even further, scoring dried up and the odds caught up with the Leafs.

Key 2014 Additions: LW David Booth, RW Matt Frattin, C Leo Komarov, C Petri Kontiola, D Roman Polak, D Stephane Robidas, C Mike Santorelli, C Daniel Winnik

Key 2014 Subtractions: C Dave Bolland, RW Jerry D'Amigo, D Tim Gleason, D Carl Gunnarsson, LW Nikolai Kulemin, G Drew MacIntyre, C Jay McClement, D Paul Ranger, LW Mason Raymond

This Is Now: 

Newly-hired team president Brendan Shanahan kept head coach Randy Carlyle and Dave Nonis in their posts, but the working environment around them was overhauled. Assistant coaches Dave Farrish, Greg Cronin and Scott Gordon were replaced with Steve Spott and Peter Horachek, while assistant GMs Dave Poulin and Claude Loiselle were gone in favour of fresh-faced analytics expert Kyle Dubas.

On the ice, the team shelled out upwards of $5 million to have Tim Gleason not play for them and made some interesting, medium-cost additions to the bottom end of their forward ranks and defence corps.

Roman Polak and a healthy Stephane Robidas should add some sandpaper on the blue line, while Leo Komarov and Matt Frattin rejoin the Leafs to compete with no less than a dozen players vying for a regular shift on the bottom two lines.

There's also a vacancy in the top six that could go to either the well-compensated David Clarkson or free agent project David Booth, who the Leafs are hoping to mold the same way they did with Raymond.

James Reimer has even signed a two-year contract, although the Manitoba-native will likely find his name in the rumour mill again over the duration of that deal.

TSN Toronto reporter Jonas Siegel's Five Key Storylines heading into training camp:

1. Jobs competition in the forward group; lots of bodies, lots of jobs up for grabs.

With the additions of Leo Komarov, Petri Kontiola, Mike Santorelli,David Booth and Daniel Winnik, there are more NHL-calibre forwards than positions available. Who will step up and claim those spots in training camp?

2. Who replaces Carl Gunnarsson on the top pair with Dion Phaneuf?

Is it time for Jake Gardiner to move into a more prominent role on an everyday basis or is he too inconsistent? In his second season, is Morgan Rielly ready to step up or is it too soon?

3. Can Randy Carlyle turn around all that hurt the Leafs last season en route to the collapse (team defence, possession)?

The nucleus of last year's team returns but the coaching staff has a new look, including a renewed focus on analytics. A fast start would go a long way to silencing the critics.

4. Who wins the third line centre gig?

With the addition of Santorelli from Vancouver and Kontiola from Finland as well as the return of Peter Holland, it should be fun to watch the competition in training camp. There are meaningful minutes to be had for the winning candidate.

5. Can William Nylander crack the Leafs as a teenager this fall?

Some felt Morgan Rielly should have been sent back to junior last season but it turned out to be the right decision to keep him as his game improved throughout the season. Do they go to the 18-year-old well yet again? Will Nylander get enough ice-time at the NHL level to enhance his progress?

DEPTH CHART

Craig's List

A list of the Maple Leafs' top prospects as ranked by TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button.

Fantasy - Cullen's Player to Watch - Morgan Rielly

It may be a touch soon to tout the production of a 20-year-old defenceman entering his second NHL season, but if the Leafs are willing to give Rielly some freedom, he could put up some solid numbers.

As a rookie, Rielly had 27 points in 73 games, including 15 in his last 34 games, and his ability to carry the puck out of trouble and into the offensive zone is what sets him apart on the Toronto blue line.

If Rielly gets paired with a reliable veteran and is turned loose to help generate scoring opportunities, he has a chance to be relevant for fantasy purposes now, with plenty of upside for the future.