TSN Hockey Consensus: 3rd in Pacific

The Flames will build off their last season's momentum and make the playoffs for a second straight season.

 

Three Key Flame Questions

1. Several Flames had impressive campaigns last season (Dennis Wideman, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, Jiri Hudler, Lance Bouma and Joe Colborne, along with rookies Josh Jooris and Johnny Gaudreau). Can Calgary honestly expect similar production from everybody or will they take a step back?

The Flames were high-percentage finishers last season, as Tampa Bay was the only team to shoot better than Calgary's 10.5 per cent in all situations in 2014-2015. If Calgary is going to sustain last season's success, they had better improve their puck possession. Last season, the Flames earned 44.5 per cent of shot attempts, ranking 28th in the league, easily worst among playoff teams. One way to offset any anticipated regression in shooting percentage is to control play more effectively and that's likely going to play a big part in determining whether the Flames fall back or continue to push forward.

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Goaltending will get a close look with Ramo, Hiller and Ortio on one-way contracts.

2. At 22 years of age, Dougie Hamilton represents what the Flames want to be: quality youth with a huge upside. Frolik is an experienced forward that has a Stanley Cup ring on his resume. How much of a difference will the new additions make? 

Hamilton is a blueline star on the rise, steadily increasing his role in Boston over the past couple of seasons. In Calgary, he's going to be paired with Mark Giordano, expected to form one of the league's most dominant duos on the blueline. So long as Hamilton continues his career ascent, he'll be a major addition to a Flames defence that was already a major part of the club's success last season. In Frolik, Calgary gets a versatile winger who can play up and down the lineup. After playing a checking role in Chicago, Frolik had back-to-back 42-point seasons in Winnipeg and that makes him a nice second-line fit for the Flames. Tying in to the first question, both Hamilton and Frolik have rated as strong relative possession players, so adding them to the Calgary lineup ought to help address one of the team's most glaring weaknesses.

3. The Flames have three goaltenders on one-way contracts. At 24, Joni Ortio is the future and has a cheap price tag. Assuming he's ready for the backup role, the battle for No. 1 is between Karri Ramo and Jonas Hiller. Whoever wins, will the goaltending be good enough for the Flames to return to the playoffs?

While Travis Yost is confident that Jonas Hiller is the Flames' best option in net, and his .918 save percentage last season was above average, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Karri Ramo or Joni Ortio steals the job. The real concern is that no matter which one wins the job, if the Flames aren't controlling play any better, it would be beneficial to have goaltending offer some answers, rather than adding another question.

 

2015-16 Calgary Flames

 

TSN's Projected Lineup

  Opening Night  
G LD RD
Karri Ramo Mark Giordano Dougie Hamilton
Jonas Hiller Kris Russell Dennis Wideman
Joni Ortio Brett Kulak Deryk Engelland
  Jakub Nakladal  
LW C RW
Johnny Gaudreau Sean Monahan Jiri Hudler
Lance Bouma Mikael Backlund Michael Frolik
Michael Ferland Sam Bennett Josh Jooris
Brandon Bollig Matt Stajan David Jones
Mason Raymond Drew Shore  

Injuries: D T.J. Brodie (hand), RW Joe Colborne (thumb), D Ladislav Smid (neck)

 

Travis Yost's Analytics Storyline

This is going to be the big 'analytics' question of the season: How much can internal player development and the acquisition of star-in-the-making Dougie Hamilton offset some of the expected regression in 2015-2016? Remember, despite amassing an impressive 97-points last year, this team still ranked 27th in the NHL by scoring chance differential and 28th in the NHL by shot differential? Regardless of how it plays out, Calgary will be an absolutely fascinating team to watch. 

 

ESTIMATED PAYROLL vs. CAP – $68.0M/$71.4M 

The Flames put speedy veteran wingers Mason Raymond and Paul Byron on waivers (Byron was then claimed by the Montreal Canadiens), and their current cap hit (per General Fanager) has enough flexibility - though Raymond’s cap hit ($3.15 million) means paying $2.2 million above and beyond the amount that is covered when a player is sent to the AHL.