TSN Hockey Consensus: 4th in Atlantic

The Senators will miss the playoffs for the second time in three seasons.

 

Three Key Senator Questions

1. Craig Anderson is the established veteran, who has been an above-average starter over the past three seasons. He is The Guy in the Senators' net to start the season, but for how long? 

While Anderson has played well, when healthy, there has been a steady stream of second-half injuries that have affected his availability.

Feb. 22, 2012 - finger, 11 games
Feb. 21, 2013 - ankle, 18 games
Mar. 10, 2014 - upper-body, 7 games
Jan. 21, 2015 - left hand, 19 games

If Andrew Hammond, who is injured to start the season, finds something approaching his record-setting form from last season, then the Hamburglar may steal the net. Or, if Anderson gets hurt again, the job could just fall to Hammond.

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If Hammond plays as well as he did last season, the No. 1 job could be his.

2. Bobby Ryan scored one goal in his last 20 games of the 2014-2015 season, on his way to an 18-goal season. Can the four-time 30-goal scorer recapture his finishing touch?

Ryan generated 2.83 shots on goal per game last season, his highest rate since 2010-2011, so he was somewhat a victim of a career-low shooting percentage (8.1 per cent) but, after watching video, Ryan is convinced that his slump was more than just bad luck. "I was playing on the outside a little too much. Even when I was getting to the front of the net I was allowing my own momentum to take me right out of plays," said Ryan. "And that's been an M.O. for me that when I start to struggle, I start to swing and I try to cheat a little offensively." Others picked up the slack for Ryan last season, but if the Senators are going to return to the playoffs, they need their big ticket winger putting the puck in the net.

3. The Ottawa Senators significantly improved their puck possession last season, going from about 48 per cent to over 51 per cent under Dave Cameron. Can they maintain that control for a full season?

One reason to think that the Senators can maintain strong possession numbers is that they still have the personnel responsible for driving play in the second half of last season. Defenceman Patrick Wiercioch along with rookie wingers Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman were among the club's better possession players and they saw an increased role under Cameron. 

 

2015-16 Ottawa Senators

 

TSN's Projected Lineup

  Opening Night  
G LD RD
Craig Anderson Marc Methot Erik Karlsson
Matt O'Connor Patrick Wiercioch Cody Ceci
  Jared Cowen Mark Borowiecki
    Chris Wideman
LW C RW
Mike Hoffman Kyle Turris Mark Stone
Bobby Ryan Mike Zibanejad Curtis Lazar
Milan Michalek J-G Pageau Alex Chiasson
Shane Prince Zack Smith Chris Neil
Matt Puempel    

Injuries: G Andrew Hammond (groin), F Clarke MacArthur (head), D Chris Phillips (back). 

 

Travis Yost's Analytic Storyline

Andrew Hammond gets a lot of credit for last year's magical run into the post-season, but the transition from Paul MacLean to Dave Cameron behind the bench was just as crucial. Under Paul MacLean, the Senators were 23rd in the league by scoring chance differential (48.4 per cent). Under Dave Cameron? Eighth best in the league by scoring chance differential (52.4 per cent). Assuming that trend continues, it's hard to envision Ottawa not competing for a playoff berth again in 2015-2016.

 

ESTIMATED PAYROLL vs. CAP – $64.0M/$71.4M 

The Senators had been a little lower on the salary chart in past years, and while they're not pushing up against the cap, their payroll is more competitive, and includes stashing grinding winger Colin Greening ($2.65-million cap hit) in the minors. The next contract to watch in Ottawa may be defenceman Jared Cowen, slated to cost a $3.1-million cap hit over the next two seasons while still scrambling for a regular role on the blueline.