Who will Blue Jays miss most?

The Blue Jays had an exciting off-season, with the acquisitions of third baseman Josh Donaldson and catcher Russell Martin highlighting their winter.

As good of a haul as the Jays picked up, one cannot forget that they lost a few players in the process.

Which outgoing player will have the biggest impact on their new team? Who will the Jays miss the most?

Brett Lawrie

Third baseman Brett Lawrie was dealt to Oakland with pitchers Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman and shortstop Franklin Barreto for Donaldson on Nov. 28, 2014.

A number of fans may be upset over the loss of Lawrie due to his popularity, but what did the Jays lose on the field?

In three seasons as a regular since 2012, the British Columbia native  has averaged just over 100 games played per year, seeing the total number decrease each campaign. He has sustained injuries to his ribs, oblique, back, finger and ankle already during his short career.

Lawrie has also seen his batting average and on-base percentage drop each season. Though he hit a career-high 12 home runs in only 70 games last season, however, with that his strike out percentage was also a career-high. After stealing 13 bases in 2012, he did not attempt to steal a base in 2014.
 

It is not all negativity for Lawrie, as he has continued to be a stand out defender during his career. Lawrie is an above-average third baseman defensively, with an Ultimate Zone Rating of 4.1 last season.

UZR takes a few factors into account such as a player’s arm, double plays, the player’s range and the amount of errors they commit relative to their position. To put things in perspective, a rating of 0 is considered average, 5 is considered above-average while -5 is considered below-average.

Lawrie should be able to take advantage of the huge amount of foul territory at O.co Coliseum where the Athletics play, being able to track down lots of pop ups on the third base side with his range. Though, that ballpark will also likely sap some of the emerging power he displayed last season.

Donaldson is arguably the best third baseman in baseball. He hit 29 home runs and drove in 98 in 2014, while defensively has shown excellent range with a UZR rating of 15.5, though he is prone to throwing errors. In fact, Donaldson was third in the MLB in Wins Above Replacement last season, ranking only behind Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw.

When it comes down to it, Lawrie is an above-average third baseman when healthy and still has the potential to be more, but when replaced by a player like Josh Donaldson, any concern over his loss should be muted.

Melky Cabrera

Outfielder Melky Cabrera was signed by the Chicago White Sox as a free-agent to a three-year contact on Dec. 16, 2014.

Cabrera enjoyed a rebound season in his second year for the Blue Jays, after only playing 88 games in the first year due to what turned out to be a tumor on his spine.  His 2014 season was cut short in early September due to a broken pinky but still managed to produce a .301 average, 16 home runs and 81 runs scored in 139 games.

Moving to U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago should not hurt Cabrera’s numbers if he can stay healthy, and he will be in a lineup which includes Jose Abreu and Adam LaRoche, so he should help set the table for the White Sox projected in the number two spot.

Defensively, Cabrera is a below-average fielder. His UZR rating in 2014 was -3.5 and he will not be missed too much in the field.

When looking at his replacement, Canadian Michael Saunders brings inconsistency. Since reaching the big leagues with the Seattle Mariners in 2009, Saunders has not been able to stick in the everyday lineup largely due to injury. He has never played more than 139 games in a season and only appeared 78 in 2014.

He does not quite possess the offence Cabrera does, but is average defensively and a definite improvement over the former Jay. Saunders might be able to partially make up for the offensive difference moving to Rogers Centre, after playing in a pitcher’s park in Safeco Field, which should also help him defensively.

In the end, Saunders likely is not upgrade over Cabrera, but if he can produce to his expected levels, the loss should not hurt the Jays significantly.

Adam Lind

First baseman Adam Lind was dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers for pitcher Marco Estrada on Nov. 1, 2014.

Lind had been with Jays’ organization since 2004 and up with the big league team since 2006, including a career-year in 2009 where he launched 35 home runs. Since then, his contributions have diminished, whether due to injury or a slide in overall play.

Now a member of the Brewers, Lind should get a chance to be their starting first baseman and hit in the middle of the order, near outfielder Ryan Braun and third baseman Aramis Ramirez. If he struggles, he may just be a platoon guy against right-handeders.

As a left-handed hitter, Lind crushes right-handed pitching while struggling against lefties. This was extremely apparent in 2014 as he hit .354 (91 for 257) against righties and only .061 (2 for 33) in an injury-shortened season.

In four seasons since 2009 where he played over 120 games, he hit close to an average of 27 home runs per season, with an average of 23 coming against righties. His total of only six home runs in 96 games last season was shockingly low, but if he gets his power back on track, his switch from Rogers Centre to Miller Park should not be that detrimental to his slugging numbers.

With Bautista, Encarnacion and Donaldson in the middle of the Jays’ order, Lind’s power will not be overly missed, but his left-handed presence could be, though Toronto has switch-hitters currently projected in their starting lineup (Jose Reyes, Dioner Navarro and Dalton Pompey) with Saunders as a lefty.

Casey Janssen

Reliever Casey Janssen was signed by the Washington Nationals as a free-agent to a one-year deal worth $5 million with a $7 million option for 2016.

Janssen served as the Jays’ closer for the better part of the last three seasons and had success, though 2014 had its issues, particularly due to injury.

He had shoulder tenderness and then a strain in his lower back to start the season and finally debuted in mid-May. Janssen took a 1.53 Earned Run Average into mid-July but by the end of the season it finished off at 3.94. His strikeouts per nine innings (k/9) also dropped significantly from 8.54 to 5.52.

It is yet to be determined which role he will fill in the Nationals bullpen, but his loss may or may not be felt with his potential replacement, which has not been announced as of yet.

One potential is 22-year old right-hander Aaron Sanchez, who came up last season in late July and posted three saves in 33 innings pitched and a 7.36 k/9. Most impressively, he posted a 1.09 ERA and a miniscule 0.70 walks and hits per innings pitched (WHIP).

The Blue Jays may trade for another reliever or pick someone else in house sending Sanchez to the rotation or minors, but as of now it seems he’s the front runner to be closer.

Honourable Mentions

Outfielder Anthony Gose was dealt to the Detroit Tigers for second baseman Devon Travis on Nov. 12, 2014.

Starter J.A. Happ was dealt to the Seattle Mariners for outfielder Michael Saunders on Dec. 2, 2014.

Reliever Dustin McGowan, who recently signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Of all the players leaving the Jays, the edge seems like it would go to Cabrera who should thrive in Chicago if he stays healthy. Though, Lawrie could finally reach his potential in Oakland.

It is tough to predict who the Jays will miss most, whether it is because they got an upgrade at the position or the uncertainty of the departing player’s future.

Which outgoing Blue Jays player will have the biggest impact on their new team? Who will the Jays miss the most?