'Why I said the Toronto Maple Leafs would make the playoffs'

Dave Naylor

TSN Football Insider

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It’s the fun part of sports - making predictions, calling your shot.

On March 16, 2016, the Toronto Maple Leafs were well on their way to hitting rock bottom, at least in terms of the standings (The spiritual rock bottom had occurred one year earlier, during the dying days of the 2014-15 season under then-head coach Peter Horachek).

The 2015-16 Maple Leafs were a team comprised of castoffs and the shell of the core built by former general managers Brian Burke and Dave Nonis, an aimless bunch engineered to finish as close to last as possible, where hopefully there might be a prize awaiting them.

Luck would have to be on their side to get a player like Auston Matthews. And while there was some buzz about the possible arrival via free agency of Tampa star Steven Stamkos,conventional wisdom said the Markham, ON raised superstar would never come to Toronto because he wasn’t prepared to join a team bound to lose for many seasons to come.

What I said that day on Toronto’s TSN Radio 1050 was the kind of things a radio show host says purely to get a reaction, and that it did.

But it was more than that…

“I know I’m going to be accused of being Leaf fan boy, but I’m not,” I said. “So I hope that will give me some credibility on what I’m about to say … I think the Maple Leafs are going to be in the post-season next year. I think they’re going to be in the playoffs.”

It was good radio and great fodder for conversation. But underneath all of that, I absolutely believed it could happen.

Here’s why:

1. The Payoff of Patience and Scouting. Thanks to a combination of strong scouting and patience (not traditional Maple Leaf organizational strengths prior to Brendan Shanahan’s arrival), the Leafs had a number of players who were ripening in junior, in Europe and in the American Hockey League who seemed poised to have an impact in 2016-17. William Nylander may have been good enough to play in the NHL last season, but the Leafs let him over-ripen for most of the campaign in the AHL.

Mitch Marner had become too good for junior hockey and Connor Brown played three full seasons in the OHL and two in the AHL. Zach Hyman - four years of college and an AHL season. Nikita Soshnikov played four years of pro in Russia before a year in the AHL. By March, there was already word that another Russian, defenceman Nikita Zaitsev, was bound for Toronto. Several weeks before the Maple Leafs won the lottery and the right to select Matthews, it was becoming evident that Toronto had a chance for a bumper rookie crop the following season.

There was no guarantee they would be successful, but this was not a group of young players being rushed to the NHL.

2. Goaltending Could Be Easily Addressed. Given the depth of goaltending around the NHL, there’s no position easier to upgrade overnight than in goal. By the end of last season, it was evident Toronto was done with the tandem of James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier.

Unless they were preparing for another year of tanking, it seemed logical that goaltending would be addressed before the start of this season. By targeting a backup or player splitting starts on another team, Toronto could simply spend some assets for a player ready to become a front-line NHL goaltender. The Leafs used that approach to acquire Bernier in 2013 and they got the wrong guy.

If they identified the right guy this time around, it would mark a huge upgrade for the Leafs. And that’s exactly what happened when they acquired Frederik Andersen from Anaheim.

3. Good Coaching Makes Defence More Than The Sum of Its Parts. There’s a reason coaches always think defence-first. It’s because this is the area of the game where they can have the most influence through teaching and systems.

A lot of offensive hockey can’t be taught - especially finishing. But preventing goals is where coaches earn their keep. And in Mike Babcock the Maple Leafs had someone who could get the most out of an average group of defencemen. Forwards being defensively responsible is also largely influenced by coaching. So it seemed logical that the Leafs, though young and with most of their high-end talent at forward, might be able to become a decent defensive team.

4. The Prime Years of Hockey Players Comes Earlier Than People Think. Despite the success of young players in today’s NHL, perception is still that an NHL player’s best years come well past the age of 25.

While that’s often true for defencemen, a great number of forwards achieve their peak offensive years while still in their early twenties. So it wasn’t so far-fetched to think that players such as Nylander and Marner might have a significant impact right away. Players who were taken near the top of the draft such as Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, Chicago’s Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews or Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry were all impact players who helped lead their teams to the Stanley Cup Final while still in their rookie contracts. 

5.  Stuff Happens. In hockey, things can change quickly. Two years ago, the Winnipeg Jets made the playoffs for the first time since moving from Atlanta, then were back in the lottery the very next year. The L.A. Kings won the Stanley Cup in the spring of 2014, then missed the playoffs the next year and again this season. Among current Eastern Conference teams in playoff position, none of Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Boston or Columbus were in the playoffs.

The Leafs aren’t even the team that’s made the biggest jump up the NHL standings this season: that distinction belongs to the Blue Jackets.

Yes, it turns out every once in a while, you really can trust your gut.​