If the Phoenix Suns go on to win their first-ever NBA Championship, they’ll join the 2004 Detroit Pistons, 2011 Dallas Mavericks and 2019 Toronto Raptors as one of the contrarian champs of this century.

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton said it best recently on The Lowe Post podcast, “the NBA is a chalk league.”

Of the four major sports in North America, the NBA is the most predictable and most top-heavy. Outside of the aforementioned champions, the NBA has gone through four eras during the 2000s – the Kobe chronicles, the Spurs dynasty, the age of LeBron, and the Warriors evolution.

Just look at the past winners from other leagues. In the NFL, outside of the New England Patriots, no team has been to the Super Bowl more than twice this past decade. In the MLB, there hasn’t been a repeat champ since the pre-luxury tax era (New York Yankees). Then there’s the NHL where a number of lower seeds have hoisted the Stanley Cup in recent memory.

I point out all of these examples to say, the Phoenix Suns aren’t supposed to be here. It took a perfect storm of circumstances for them to overachieve as the underdogs.

Health helps Phoenix shatter 38.5 wins projection

After Phoenix made the splash to add Chris Paul and Abdel Nader in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr., Ricky Rubio, Ty Jerome, Jalen Lecque and a 2022 first-round pick, oddsmakers bumped their projections up to 38.5 wins for 2020-21.

A 52 per cent win rate wasn’t farfetched. In the previous season, the Suns had gone 8-0 in the bubble and finished five games below .500. But in the four seasons prior, they averaged just 21.75 wins. Die-hard Chris Paul fans likely bet the over, but few would’ve committed to a 51-win season.

To achieve that regular season success, Phoenix had to get lucky with health. Of their core starting-five, no player missed more than 12 games this season. Their three star players (Devin Booker, Paul, and Deandre Ayton) missed just 10 games combined.

To put that in perspective, here’s a list of the games missed by this year’s All-NBA team members:

 

Giannis Antetokounmpo - 11

Kawhi Leonard - 20

Nikola Jokic - 0

Stephen Curry - 9

Luka Doncic - 6

 

LeBron James - 27

Julius Randle - 1

Joel Embiid - 21

Damian Lillard - 5

Chris Paul - 2

 

Jimmy Butler - 20

Paul George - 18

Rudy Gobert - 1

Bradley Beal - 12

Kyrie Irving - 18

 

The Suns managed to stay healthy in the most chaotic of seasons and that continuity they developed translated into on-court success throughout the playoffs.

One weakened opponent after another

At the beginning of the season, the Suns were +3000 to win the Western Conference. When the playoffs were about to start, they were +2000 to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy even after finishing the season with the NBA’s second-best record. The Lakers, Clippers and Jazz were all placed ahead of them in the eyes of oddsmakers.

You can imagine Chris Paul in that locker room using these projections as bulletin board material to inspire the squad.

While they deserve full credit for everything they’ve achieved, you can’t ignore how fortunate they were with injuries.

In Round 1 as the No. 2 seed, they opened the series as the underdog against a banged-up Lakers squad. Game 1 comes, Phoenix sets the tone by taking a 1-0 series lead. The Lakers come back and take the next two seemingly finding their rhythm. Then in Game 4, Anthony Davis leaves with a strained groin and the series ultimately goes the Suns’ way.

In Round 2, Phoenix squares off against an exhausted Denver Nuggets squad who plays without their No. 2 option, Jamal Murray, and Will Barton who was an underrated contributor to their success. Phoenix shows no mercy, sweep ensues.

Round 3 comes around and same story, Phoenix gets an undermanned opponent. Kawhi Leonard ends up missing the whole series and the Suns take care of business in a tightly contested six-game battle.

Finally favourites heading into the Finals

Even when the Suns’ finals berth looked inevitable a week ago, Milwaukee was still pegged as the Championship favourite continuing this underdog narrative for Phoenix. Then in one blur, both superstars go down in the East and Phoenix finally gets its due as the favourites.

Much of this NBA season has been about circumstances beyond basketball. A compressed schedule, empty arenas, and countless COVID-19 related absences, this was as abnormal of a year as you could get. It should come as no surprise that one of the most unexpected outcomes in the history of the NBA would wrap one of the most unpredictable seasons.