Columnist image

TSN Senior Reporter

| Archive

The FedEx Cup playoffs get underway this week with the Northern Trust, returning to Liberty National Golf Club in Jersey City, N.J., for the fourth time.

One hundred and twenty-four of the top 125 are in the field – Louis Oosthuizen, dealing with a sore neck, is sitting out.

The course, once the site of a First World War ammunition dump, sits seemingly just a par 5 away from the Statue of Liberty, which created a gorgeous image for the Americans victory over the Internationals here in the 2017 Presidents Cup.

Overall, this is a demanding track. The holes are long, the greens are somewhat smaller than usual and getting up and down from around them is no easy task.

That didn’t stop the best of the PGA Tour from going low two years ago, when this tournament last visited here.

Patrick Reed took top spot at 16 under par, one shot better than Abraham Ancer.

Reed finished first in SG: Total, indicating it will take a solid all-around game to win this tournament.

Here are my picks for the Northern Trust.

The Favourites

Collin Morikawa +1800

FedEx Cup Season Standings: 1

Yes, I know, it’s a bit of a layup picking the top seed in the FedEx Cup as we start the playoffs but what’s not to like about Morikawa? He leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green and in Strokes Gained: Approach The Green. His putting is a woeful 170th, but he’s been on the positive side of the Strokes Gained: Putting category in three of his last five starts including a solid 3.89 on the sloped greens at Kasumigaseki Country Club during the Olympics.

Rory McIlroy +2200

FedEx Cup Season Standings: 26

McIlroy’s past seven starts include a win, three top 10s and five top 20s. For most players, that’s a solid season but fans – and Rory – are expecting more. They might get it this week at Liberty National. McIlroy has won the overall FedEx Cup title twice, most recently in 2018. He’s also won five playoff events, more than any other golfer. His putter will likely determine his fate – in his last start at the FedEx St. Jude Invitational he was -3.48 SG and prior to that he was +3.65 in the same category at the Olympics.

Middle Tier

Webb Simpson +3000

FedEx Cup Season Standings: 46

Simpson has returned to some form after a swoon caused by a sore neck. He finished seventh last week at Wyndham, logging a positive Strokes Gained: Total number of +9.25. It’s his third consecutive event where he’s been on the plus side in that category. Simpson hits lots of fairways and greens, leading to the ninth-best scoring average on Tour at 69.808.  He also has a decent track record at Liberty National, finishing tied for 18th here in 2019.

Harris English +4000

FedEx Cup Season Standings: 4

This seems like an easy pick for a guy who has enjoyed a stellar season. English has two wins and eight top 10s this year and he’s been in the top five three times in his last four starts. He has the seventh-best birdie average on Tour with 347 birdies in 80 rounds and he’s also 13th in SG: Putting. Came second in the first playoff event last year although it wasn’t at this course.

Sleepers

Seamus Power +12500

FedEx Cup Season Standings: 73

Power has a win and four top 10s in his past seven starts and has made the cut in his past 10 starts. He is very efficient with his driver, sitting in 24th spot in the SG: Off the Tee, and he follows that up well hitting 68.93 per cent of his greens in regulation, good for 24th spot. To complete the picture, he is 15th in putts from inside 10 feet and eighth best in putts from 10 to 15 feet. Put it all together and he provides some great value this week.

Emiliano Grillo +12500

FedEx Cup Season Standings: 47

Grillo’s results of late have been a bit of a mixed bag but there’s enough to like in here to have a look at him at these odds. He is 30th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach. What might scare some off are his results in his last six starts where he’s missed four cuts. The other two events were a tie for 12th at the Open Championship and a tie for 27th at the Barracuda Championship. There’s just enough good stuff in all this to make me take a good look for this week.