Most teams in the NBA are running it back. A new rookie or two here, an additional role player there. But many teams face new challenges heading into the 2021-22 season, opening the door for dramatic storylines.

Fabio and Wesley go through some of their favourite over/unders ahead of NBA tip-off of its 75th anniversary season on Tuesday.

Wesley Cheng’s Gold Pick: Houston Rockets under 27.5 wins

During last year’s 72-game season, an out-of-shape James Harden helped Houston win two games before being traded while John Wall played in over half of their contests before shutting it down for the final 11. In the 30 games where neither all-star was active, the Rockets went 5-25. There’s no denying 2021 second-overall pick Jalen Green has the potential to become a star but the learning curve will be steep for the league’s second youngest backcourt duo. They’re going to turn over the ball, make careless errors on defence and have questionable shot selection all season. After finishing with a 17-55 record last year, oddsmakers are suggesting this current squad is eight wins better. That’s asking a lot from a roster that has 11 players with two years or less of NBA experience. By season’s end, don’t be surprised to see them lined up for another top-3 draft pick.

Fabio Lucarini’s Gold Pick: San Antonio Spurs over 29.5 win total

This feels like too low of a bar. You can make a case that Dejounte Murray and Derrick White are in line to improve this season, and Keldon Johnson showed flashes of being a legitimate NBA player last year The Spurs added frontcourt depth in Thaddeus Young and shooting in Doug McDermott. Some will point to the loss of DeMar DeRozan, but this might be a case of addition by subtraction. His on/off splits in San Antonio the past three seasons: -5.3 in 2018-19, -4.4 in 2019-20, -4.8 in 2020-21. I expect an uptick in their offensive pace, energy and defence with a younger, more athletic lineup. Also of note, head coach Gregg Popovich is just 26 wins away from breaking the all-time NBA record, and I think his team gets there for the 72-year-old Pop. 

Wesley Cheng’s Silver Pick: Miami Heat over 48.5 wins

The Heat went 7-13 last season in games without Jimmy Butler and really never put it together fighting a rash of injuries and absences. Their 33-19 record with Butler active is likely a more accurate reflection of what’s to come for Miami. The additions of PJ Tucker and Kyle Lowry will layer on a defensive identity that could take them from a top-10 defence last season to a top-5. Bam Adebayo has never played with a point guard like Lowry and if the preseason is any indication, those two will be devastating opponents in the pick-and-roll. Tyler Herro looks ready to contend for the Sixth Man of the Year award and former All-NBA player Victor Oladipo projects to return at some point before in 2022. The Heat are in win now mode. 

Fabio Lucarini’s Silver Pick: Utah Jazz over 53.5 wins

The Jazz hit 52 wins last year without Donovan Mitchell for 19 games, and are now deeper in a weaker Western Conference. They’ve added serviceable bench players in Rudy Gay and Eric Paschall while keeping the same starting five intact. Utah was the only team to rank top-5 in offensive and defensive rating, and that continuity will certainly spill over into the new campaign. Throw in the best homecourt advantage in the NBA (31-5 last season) and it’s hard to find a reason they aren’t better this season.

Wesley Cheng’s Bronze Pick: Chicago Bulls over 42.5 wins

The immediate knock on Chicago revolves around their defensive shortcomings. Nikola Vucevic has never profiled as a rim-protector, but he was 18th last season in Defensive Win Share and is one of the best at closing out possessions off the glass. Patrick Williams will be burdened with elevating his abilities as a stopper while Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine, and DeMar DeRozan will need to get cohesive as a defensive unit quickly. The preseason results are one thing but what stood out more was how compatible their offensive games gelled. All four stars displayed a high level of basketball IQ, were effectively moving the ball and capitalized often on the fast break. Compared to last year’s team, the Bulls have more leadership pedigree on the roster and seem to be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Tack on the underrated signing of Alex Caruso and this team should be opening some eyes over the first few weeks of the regular season. 

Fabio Lucarini’s Bronze pick: Golden State Warriors under 48.5 wins

It's plausible that the Warriors may look great by the time the playoffs roll around, but this total is very high for a team with question marks. The biggest one is how prominent of a role should we expect from Klay Thompson this season? He is reportedly not returning before 2022, and even then he will be eased back into action after a two-plus year layoff. What can we expect from James Wiseman in his second year? Can Otto Porter be relied upon to stay healthy? Is Andre Iguodala still a rotation player at age 37? Betting against Steph Curry can make anyone look foolish, but with such a high total, the burden of proof is on the Warriors to prove they can win close to 50 games.