NFL Championship Sunday kicks off in just over 72 hours.

In a lot of ways, it’s bittersweet.

While I can’t wait for the final four to play out on Sunday, I’m doing my best to ignore the fact that, after this weekend, we only get one more NFL game for the next seven months.

This season has been a ton of fun covering the NFL for TSN EDGE – it usually is when you make a profit, but beyond that it’s been a lot of fun to go to work every single week trying to gain an edge against the books. There would be no better way to go out then to finish the season on a high note, beginning on Sunday.

I’ve kept a thread of the recommended plays that I’ve made over the past four days on Twitter.

I figured with all the anticipation heading into this weekend, I’ll use this column to break down one more play that I’ve locked in for Sunday.

Here’s the TSN EDGE Morning Coffee for Friday, Jan. 28, 2022.

Expect 49ers to lean heavily on Mitchell

Let’s start with the NFC Championship Game.

If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance that you already know that the San Francisco 49ers have won six straight head-to-head meetings with the Los Angeles Rams, including each of the past four as underdogs.

In Week 10, the 49ers beat the Rams 31-10. In Week 18, San Francisco rallied from down 17-0 to beat L.A. 27-24 in overtime.

While each of their six straight wins over the Rams has played out differently, there are some constants from the 49ers that bettors should be aware of heading into Sunday.

San Francisco has averaged 34 minutes and 55 seconds in time of possession during their head-to-head win streak.

The strength of the Rams’ offence is their passing, so it’s probably a good start to try to keep the football out of Matthew Stafford’s hands as much as possible.

The 49ers need to be able to run the football to maintain an edge in time of possession

Volume has been the key against Los Angeles.

In their first meeting of the season, San Francisco ran the football on 44 of its 64 plays (69 per cent).

In their second meeting – a game in which the 49ers trailed 17-0 before rallying to win in overtime – they still ran the football on 31 of 67 total plays (46 per cent).

Fast-forward to San Francisco’s playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys in the super wild-card round.

The 49ers ran the football on 38 of their 63 plays (60 per cent) in a 23-17 victory.

In last week’s 13-10 win over the Green Bay Packers, another game in which San Francisco trailed for a good portion, they still ran the football on 29 of 52 total plays (53 per cent).

The 49ers have made it clear that they want to run the football early and often, which is something we can expect again versus Los Angeles on Sunday.

So, how can we capitalize on that information?

For me, the best approach is to take San Francisco running back Elijah Mitchell to go over 17.5 rush attempts.

Mitchell, who has averaged 22.4 carries per game over the past seven weeks dating back to the regular season, has played more than 70 per cent of the offensive snaps for the 49ers in each of their first two playoff games.

Mitchell had some success against the Rams this season as well, averaging 24 rush attempts for 88 rush yards, with 21 carries in that Week 18 comeback victory as the floor for rush attempts in the two games.

That means that even if L.A. jump out to an early lead the way they did in that last meeting, we should still be able to trust Mitchell will get a decent floor in terms of volume, barring injury.

If San Francisco can take a lead or at least maintain a neutral game script, then they should feed Mitchell even more as they try to keep the football out of Stafford’s hands in the second half.

I’ll add Mitchell over 17.5 rushing attempts to my card for NFL Championship Sunday.

Enjoy the games!