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TORONTO — In three-to-five years, if we’re lucky, we’ll be able to debate what went right, what went wrong, and whose 2018 draft graded out the best.

Until then, patience is a must and opinions mean little.

Such is life when it comes to the MLB draft process, an agonizing wait-and-see situation that comes with a fraction of the buzz that, say, the NFL draft gets, for a number of obvious reasons.

But despite the slow burn development track that many of these prospects will be on in the coming months and years, there’s still no better way to build a team than through the draft.

At this point, the 2018 draft class is rather nondescript.

A handful of players will become stars eventually, we know that, but none of the prospects selected tonight come with the pedigree of a Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg, who stood out as the consensus top players in their class long before their names were called on draft night.

Holding the No. 12 selection in the first round, this is the earliest the Blue Jays have picked since a three-year run that saw them draft 10th, ninth, and 11th from 2013 through 2015, respectively, and it should be a good spot to scoop up a top-tier talent that falls out of the top 10.

A total of 78 picks will be made on day one of the draft. Here are five storylines to track Monday night.

 

Who goes No. 1?

The uncertainty starts right at the top, where the Detroit Tigers are said to be deciding between three options.

Long considered the frontrunner, Auburn righty Casey Mize probably still is, but the latest buzz has the Tigers and GM Al Avila also considering Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart and Florida right-hander Brady Singer, a second-round pick of the Blue Jays as a high schooler back in 2015.

Along with those three names, Oregon State infielder Nick Madrigal, Wichita State third baseman Alec Bohm and Florida third baseman Jonathan India make up a consensus top six made up of college options at the top of the draft.

After that, it’s a complete crapshoot, and signing bonuses, as always, will play a role in where the prospects land.

 

Where will the top-ranked Canadians go?

Ranked as the 27th-overall prospect by MLB Pipeline and 26th by FanGraphs, Mississauga’s Noah Naylor is unlikely to hear his name called earlier than his brother, Josh, did when the Miami Marlins drafted the big first baseman 12th overall in 2015. 

But the expectation is that the younger Naylor will land somewhere in the first round. Seen as one of the best prep bats in the class, Naylor has a chance to stick at catcher, but the fallback plan is third base, which isn’t bad, either.

Not to be outdone by the Naylors, Tristan Pompey is on the verge of joining his brother, Dalton, in the minors, and there’s a 100 per cent chance he goes higher than the 16th round, where the Blue Jays selected big bro back in 2010.

Pompey, a wiry, switch-hitting outfielder who spent three years filling out and maturing at the University of Kentucky, is ranked 51st overall by MLB Pipeline and 119th overall by FanGraphs.

The third Canadian to keep an eye on is right-handed pitcher Eric Cerantola, a raw 18-year-old out of Sainte Trinite High School in Oakville, Ont.

At 6-foot-6 and 195 pounds, Cerantola is projectable, but he’ll have to be bought out of a commitment to Mississippi State.

Cerantola is ranked 189th overall by MLB Pipeline.

 

History says Jays will take a college player

Since taking the front office reins late in 2015, the Mark Shapiro-Ross Atkins regime has presided over two drafts.

Both of those draft classes have been college heavy, with 19 of 22 selections in the top 10 rounds coming from the college ranks.

Last year was Steve Sanders’ first time leading the draft table as the new director of amateur scouting, and he dipped into the college pool with 13 of his first 14 picks and 16 of his top 20, overall, including first-rounders Logan Warmoth (North Carolina) and Nate Pearson (College of Central Florida).

The last time the Jays went with a prep player in the first round was back in 2013 when they selected – and failed to sign – California right-hander Phil Bickford.

 

Why, then, is all the draft scuttlebutt pointing to the Jays taking a prep player?

As Sanders noted many times throughout conversations over the past week, the Jays are open to both college and high school players early on, pushing a best-player-available strategy.

While that’s clearly the best way to generalize and throw people off the true scent, BPA is always the best way to go when there’s so much development left between what you see now and the final product.

Why draft for need when you have no idea what your needs will be a half-decade from now?

The historical trends scream college player, but all of the rumours and pre-draft talk have centred around high school players, with the Jays being linked to a number of high-upside options (we went over 13 of them right here).

There has also been a late rumour-mill lean to bats over arms for the Jays at No. 12.

 

Jays could aim high with pick No. 52

Like they did with Singer in 2015 and continued with the selection of Huntington Beach high school catcher Hagen Danner at pick No. 61 last year, the Jays have had a tendency – like a lot of teams – to swing for the fences in the second round.

Danner was Sanders’ only high school pick in his first 14 selections last June, and the boom-or-bust prospect batted .160 in his 34-game debut in rookie ball last summer.

With the Jays said to be honing in on high-upside position players in the first round, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them continue that ceiling search when the time comes to make their second pick of the night at No. 52, a spot that has a slot value of $1.35 million.

Of course, bonus pool money and player expectations would have to be carefully managed for the Jays to avoid a repeat of the Singer situation, as no one likes swinging and missing on an early pick, especially when that player becomes a top-five talent three years later.