Odds courtesy: Bestfightodds.com

With a buildup that has been three years in the making, a matchup that never seemed to materialize is finally upon us as former interim welterweight champion Colby Covington faces former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley.

When Covington defeated Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 225 in June of 2018 to become the interim welterweight champion, then-champion Woodley was to be his next opponent in a title unification match that never ended up happening. Now the former teammates face off in this weekend’s main event.

Judging by the line for this fight, the perception on the skill level of these two fighters has changed dramatically over the years.

Covington’s pace versus Woodley’s power

Colby Covington (-325) vs. Tyron Woodley (+265)

Having both fallen short against welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in 2019, the public seems to be gravitating towards Covington, who fared better against Usman than Woodley.

Line analysis:

After Covington won the interim welterweight championship in 2018 and was expected to face Woodley next, the line opened with Woodley as a -140 favourite. This time around, Covington opened as an overwhelming favourite at -250, a number that has since gotten higher.

The reason seems fairly straight forward. Woodley has lost 10 straight rounds against fighters who push a fast pace, attack with volume striking and have solid grappling skills.

When Woodley faces Covington, the general consensus is that Woodley will need to strike hard and strike early if he wants to stand a chance against a fighter who has amongst the highest motors and best cardio in the division. This is confirmed by the betting prop on each fighter by decision, where Woodley is +750 to win by decision, while Covington is -155 to win by decision.

In their last four fights, the difference in significant strikes landed is lopsided to say the least. Woodley with 1 hour, 24 minutes, 19 seconds of cage time landed 176 significant strikes (2.09 significant strikes landed per minute), while Covington with 1 hour, 39 minutes, 10 seconds of cage time landed 509 significant strikes (5.14 significant strikes landed per minute)

Covington told TSN earlier this week that he felt the betting line was not indicative of how good his opponent is and that knowing the kind of knockout power that Woodley possesses in his right hand, he will be very careful to not focus solely on a volume-oriented game plan.

Is the Price right?

Niko Price (-150) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130)

In the co-main event, fan favourite “Cowboy” Cerrone looks to get back on track after four straight losses.

Line Analysis:
During his UFC tenure, Cerrone has never lost to a fighter who was not already an elite fighter or who would go on to become an elite fighter.

Based on the track record of Niko Price, it is difficult to make the case that he will ever be considered a top-3 fighter in his division.

That said, Price is an incredibly dangerous fighter, with the ability to finish a fight wherever it goes. That is what makes this the perfect litmus test to see where Cerrone is at in his career.

Despite a poor showing against Conor McGregor earlier this year, Cerrone returned with a respectable performance against former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. While he fell short in that bout, he showed that there is still some gas left in the tank.

Cerrone has the advantages almost everywhere in this bout with sharper technical striking and a more refined ground game, but Price has fight-ending power and a creativity that allows him to capitalize on his opponent’s errors. More importantly, he is also six years younger and has far less miles in terms of his fighting career.

The super prospect versus the veteran

Khamzat Chimaev (-390) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+320)
Chimaev has been a professional fighter for just over two years and made a statement in July by defeating two fighters in two different weight classes over the span of 10 days. To add to that impressive feat, he did so by out-landing them 83-1 in significant strikes.

Now he faces his toughest test to date in Meerschaert, who holds the record for the most submission wins in UFC middleweight history.

Line Analysis:

This line opened up with Chimaev as a -500 favourite and has since dropped down, with the veteran Meerschaert getting some respect from the public.

Meerschaert is tough and crafty as they come in the UFC, and is the perfect opponent to show just how good Chimaev is. Meerschaert has proven that he has knockout power, and if Chimaev takes the fight to the ground, which he did regularly in his first two outings, Meerschaert will have an arsenal of submission attacks to throw at him.

Where many hyped prospects are always bet up to outrageous numbers, the betting public has decided to pump the brakes on Chimaev and see what he can do against a tough, game opponent who has been on the cusp of the middleweight top-15 for some time.

Odds and Ends:
- With the exception of a draw against Marina Rodriguez in 2018, Randa Markos has alternated wins and losses for her entire UFC career. She enters her bout this weekend against Mackenzie Dern coming off of a loss.

- Dern has been a favourite in all five of her UFC bouts.

- Johnny Walker is a favourite for the fifth straight time. He is 2-2 in the previous four where he was the favourite.

- Walker’s opponent, Ryan Spann, is an underdog for the first time in his UFC career.

- Mara Romero Borella has been an underdog in all but one of her seven UFC bouts. Her UFC record is 2-4.