There is a lot at stake for Irene Aldana and Holly Holm, who look to establish their position in the women’s bantamweight division with no fighter currently standing out as the next contender for champion Amanda Nunes.

Aldana has the most to gain from a win as UFC president Dana White has stated that she would be next in line for a title shot with a win over the former champion Holm.

Odds courtesy: Bestfightodds.com

 

Who's the next contender?

Holly Holm (-120) vs. Irene Aldana (+100)

Just two weeks away from her 39th birthday, Holm aims to earn her sixth UFC title fight before calling it a career. To do so she will have to defeat Aldana, who is 5-1 in her past six.

Line analysis

Aldana has landed two takedowns in her eight UFC bouts, which tells me that this fight will be contested mostly, if not exclusively, on the feet. Even though Holm is nearing 40, she has more refined striking skills than perhaps any female in mixed martial arts.

While Aldana is younger and has shown to be a rising talent in the division, this is the sort of matchup that Holm has performed favourably in. If not for the age discrepancy, the betting line would likely be higher.

Aldana was incredibly impressive in her last win against previously undefeated Ketlen Vieira, who was a surging contender in her own right, but it is difficult to give her the edge in a bout against Holm that could go into the championship rounds where Holm has had more experience.

 

The other high-stakes women’s bantamweight bout

Germaine de Randamie (-150) vs. Julianna Pena (+130)

With a potential women's bantamweight title shot hanging in the balance, Pena is the other fighter with a lot at stake, given that she has never faced Nunes and is facing the top-ranked contender in de Randamie.

Line Analysis

De Randamie has gone 3-1 in her past four bouts, all of which have come against top-level talent including Nunes, Holm and former title challenger Raquel Pennington. Pena has also gone 3-1 in her past four against the likes of flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko, former flyweight champion Nicco Montano and two former title challengers in Jessica Eye and Cat Zingano.

The line for this bout should be tighter. In de Randamie’s last bout, she was taken down eight times by Nunes and with Pena. All it takes is one takedown and has an arsenal of creative submission attacks to rely on.

The game plan for Pena should be simple: close distance, grab de Randamie and don’t let her get space.

If this bout is on the feet for long durations de Randamie will have a big advantage, so look for Pena to try and avoid those exchanges.

 

Jourdain a big favourite

Charles Jourdain (-450) vs. Josh Culibao (+360)

Despite a 1-2 record in the UFC, Jourdain is a sizeable favourite against Culibao, who made his UFC debut in February.

Line Analysis

The reason why Jourdain is such a large favourite is because of the level of competition that he has faced. Similar to his opponent, Jourdain entered the UFC fighting up a weight class on short notice and lost a unanimous decision to Desmond Green at lightweight despite having a good showing. He followed that up with a win as a sizeable underdog against top Korean prospect Dooho Choi and lost a split decision in his last outing to the perpetually tough Andre Fili.

Culibao entered the UFC undefeated, having fought lower-calibre opponents on the Australian regional scene.

After three difficult matchups, the UFC are giving Jourdain an opportunity to showcase his skills against a lesser-known fighter.

With odds like this, Jourdain is expected to make it look easy, but Culibao is a prospect who won three different featherweight titles regionally and should not be overlooked.

 

Odds and Ends

- Yorgan de Castro is a favourite for the first time in his UFC career

- This is Devin Townsend’s fourth straight UFC bout where he has been a 3-to-1 underdog or higher. He is 0-3 in the UFC.

- Carlos Condit and Court McGee are a combined 1-9 in their last 10.

- Jessin Ayari is a favourite for the first time in his UFC career. He is 1-2 in the UFC.