Aug 9, 2022
Bob Weeks Picks Six – The FedEx St. Jude Championship
The regular season is over and it’s off to the playoffs we go. That means a few things of course. First is that the cut line moves from 125 to 70 for golfers trying to move on to the next event. And second, a lot of the big dogs are back in action.
By Bob Weeks
The regular season is over and it’s off to the playoffs we go. That means a few things of course. First is that the cut line moves from 125 to 70 for golfers trying to move on to the next event. And second, a lot of the big dogs are back in action.
The first stop is the FedEx St. Jude Championship, which will be played at TPC Southwind in Memphis. This is the first year for this particular tournament at this course although it was the site of the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational from 2019 to 2021, and prior to that, FedEx St. Jude Classic (I know, it gets confusing), from 1989 to 2018.
The top 121 players on the FedEx points list are entered. Missing are Tommy Fleetwood, Daniel Berger, Lanto Griffin and Nate Ashley for either injury or personal reasons.
Most years, the key ingredient for low scores at this tournament is hitting fairways and greens, but this year, the course has been hit by a dry summer meaning the rough isn’t all that lush. So bombers may have more of an advantage here.
To Win
Rory McIlroy +1000
No surprise but McIlroy comes in as the favourite this week. While he has just two wins (I realize that sounds strange – only) he has eight top 10s in his 13 starts. He comes in sitting in first place in Strokes Gained: Total with a silky 2.295. He also has the best scoring average, sitting at 68.595. That is a great indication of just how well rounded his game is at the moment. To go a step deeper, he’s made 222 birdies in 50 rounds of golf, which is, well, just nuts. Add it all up and it’s easy to see why he’s the chalk.
Justin Thomas +1800
He’s not coming in holding a hot hand after a missed cut at the Scottish Open and a tie for 53rd at the Open Championship, but Thomas has some history at TPC Southwind, winning here in 2018. He’s also having a collectively good year with nine top 10s in 18 starts. He’s third in Strokes Gained: Total and second in birdie average on the PGA Tour. Thomas also leads the PGA Tour in par-4 scoring average.
Top 10
Sungjae Im +290
A hot golfer coming in with consecutive runner-up finishes in his last two starts. Ranked 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and seventh in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Im would never be mistaken for a long hitter but he is great going into the greens, sitting 10th in Greens in Regulation. He’s had a solid season with eight top-10 finishes, a personal best.
Taylor Pendrith +600
This might be a big ask for a PGA Tour rookie, but at this value, Pendrith looks very attractive. And he is a rookie only in name as he’s played professional golf for some time prior to this year and, when he’s been healthy, done pretty well. In his last four starts on the PGA Tour since he returned from injury, he hasn’t been outside the top 13. He hits it plenty long and sits in sixth place in Greens in Regulation on the PGA Tour.
Top 20
Billy Horschel +200
Horschel’s recent form has been good with two top-30s in his last two starts. But more important is his record at TPC Southwind. He’s made the cut in all eight appearance and he has five top 10s in the various events here.
Russell Henley +210
A tie for 10th and a tie for fifth in his last two starts coming into this week, Henley is on a roll. He sits seventh on the PGA Tour in Greens in Regulation and also is 10th in birdie average. Has played 20 tournaments this year and finished inside the top 25 in half of them.