By The Numbers: Capitals on the brink of history

The Washington Capitals were in big trouble.

For years, they’ve been unable to follow up strong regular seasons with playoff success, never advancing past the second round in the Alexander Ovechkin era.

The Capitals found themselves down 0-2 to the Columbus Blue Jackets in Round 1 of the 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs despite having home-ice advantage. They went into Columbus facing a must-win in Game 3 with another early playoff exit looming, an all too-familiar spot.

But Game 3 was the turning point. The two teams went into double overtime deadlocked at 3-3 when Lars Eller batted a rebound past Sergei Bobrovsky to give the Capitals life in the series. Eller said after the game that the win was energizing.

He was right.

The Capitals went on to win the next four games in the series and rode that momentum all the way to the Stanley Cup Final against the Vegas Golden Knights. Now, they’re just one win away. With the Capitals on the brink of their first Cup in franchise history, TSN.ca takes a look back at how they got there.

History is on their side, sort of. The Capitals are the 34th team to take a 3-1 series lead in the Cup Final since it was moved to a best-of-seven in 1939. Thirty-two of the previous 33 teams have gone on to win the Cup, but to become the 33rd the Capitals will have to buck a troubling trend. When taking a 3-1 playoff series lead, the Capitals are only 7-5, not near the record a team in that spot should have. In fact, they’re the only team in Stanley Cup Playoff history to lose more than three series when leading 3-1.

*Before 2018 Cup Final

But the Capitals have maintained all season that this team is different. After the Golden Knights took Game 1 at T-Mobile Arena, Washington has controlled the series. They’ve outscored Vegas 16-11 and have led for 117:45 compared to just 32:19 for the Golden Knights. Vegas scored six in the opener, but managed only five over the next three games. Part of the reason for their drought has been an inability to convert on the power play, going 1-11 over that span.

Another reason is the play of Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby.

Holtby has stopped 86 of his last 91 shots for a GAA of 1.66 since Game 1, including a miraculous stop in Game 2 that will go down as one of the most famous plays in franchise history if the Capitals finish the series.

On offence, the Caps have Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov to thank.

The duo has combined for 26 goals and 57 points and each player is a strong candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy.   

Ovechkin’s 14 playoff goals tied him with John Druce for most in franchise history. Kuznetsov’s 31 points this postseason are tied for the second most since 2009, just five back of Evgeni Malkin’s famous playoff hot streak as the Penguins went on to win the Cup.

If the Golden Knights have any chance of turning the series around, they’re going to need more from goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. Yes the Golden Knights are going to have to play better in front of him, but his drop-off has been noticeable.

His save percentage has dipped all the way to .845 after being in the mid-900s through the first three rounds and his GAA has jumped by more than two goals.

“There's too many guys staring at the puck carrier, and we're leaving the back side open too much. Make sure we're paying attention to the guys behind the puck and away from the puck. Marc will make the save on the guy shooting the puck. We've just got to make sure we're taking away the passes," head coach Gerard Gallant said Wednesday.

It will be an uphill battle for Vegas, but not more uphill than an expansion team reaching the Stanley Cup Final in their first season.

For Washington, it’s all about finishing the job.

"You work so hard to get to this point and you want to make it happen," head coach Barry Trotz said. "We talked about just having to make sure that we've got focus on one game."

*Stats courtesy of TSN's Kevin Gibson