Every week TSN CFL stats guru Jon Perlberg takes a deep dive Inside The Numbers to give bettors an edge.

This week, he takes a closer look at the Hamilton Tiger-Cats’ ability to capitalize versus a shorthanded Saskatchewan Roughriders’ side in a must-win at home.

After falling short in their pursuit of first place in the East Division, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats now turn their attention to securing a home playoff date this week against the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

The Ticats’ recent performance in the Battle of the QEW left much to be desired as they were completely dismantled by the Argos 31-12 last Friday night.

Thankfully for the Tabbies, they return home to Tim Hortons Field where they are a much better team in front of their raucous crowd.

Since Orlondo Steinauer took over as head coach in 2019, Hamilton holds a stellar 14-2 record at home including the playoffs.

Another aspect to take into account for this late season matchup is the fact that the Ticats have something to play for and the Riders do not.

Saskatchewan has already clinched second place in the West Division and as a result, they have chosen to sit some of their marquee players.

On offence, the Riders will be without their top trio of Cody Fajardo, William Powell and Duke Williams.

While on the defensive side of the ball, those not making the trip to Hamilton will be Micah Johnson, Deon Lacey and Loucheiz Purifoy.

Expect coach Steinauer to have his squad primed and ready to take advantage of the resting Riders on Saturday afternoon.

There’s no place like home-field in football and that will make all the difference as the Ticats lock down an extended stay in Steeltown for next week’s Eastern Semi-final.

The Pick:  Hamilton -6.5

In another matchup where both of the teams have their playoff positions set, betting on the under is a wise decision here.

On Saturday night, the Calgary Stampeders are likely to give Bo Levi Mitchell some rest in preparation for their upcoming post-season showdown with Saskatchewan.

Expect Jake Maier to take the field for a decent portion of the reps, which will cut into Bo’s ability to put up numbers in a game that has no bearing on the standings.

I’ll take the under on Mitchell’s passing yards and pass attempts.

The Picks: Bo Levi Mitchell under 265.5 passing yards and 30.5 attempts

In Friday night’s first matchup, however, the Alouettes faint hopes of hosting a playoff game are still alive as they face the lowly Ottawa Redblacks.

In seven full starts this season with Edmonton and Montreal, Trevor Harris has averaged 257.4 passing yards.

Modest by his career standards but still more than enough to trust against the league’s second worst pass defence (Ottawa has allowed 273.3 yards per game through the air this season).

The prop picks: Trevor Harris over 150.5 passing yards and 22.5 attempts

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