We live in distracting times. I need to check my email or the score of a game. What is so-and-so up to? I should really turn my group chat to silent. And when a pause in NHL play looms, like for the All-Star weekend, it’s even harder to concentrate. 

With time to decompress so tantalizingly close, I’m especially attuned to which teams are motivated to finish with a bang this weekend and which have already mentally checked-out. 

St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche
Saturday, January 28 – 3:00 PM ET
Did the St. Louis Blues start their vacation prematurely or has the team collectively quiet quit? The decision-making and puck management from St. Louis are execrable. The gaps are embarrassing. Thursday night provided an especially humiliating display, as the Blues flopped in a 5-0 defeat at the hands of the Arizona Coyotes. And now they are up against an ornery Colorado Avalanche team.

The motivation should be there for the Avalanche. The skaters are getting healthier and goaltender Pavel Francouz is no longer injured. The Avs’ regular season plan was to have Francouz and Alexandar Georgiev platoon, but when Francouz missed time with an injury, Georgiev was forced to shoulder the entire workload and his play steadily deteriorated. Trotting out the same fatigued goaltender every night was the biggest reason for Colorado’s prolonged losing spell at the end of 2022 and starting 2023. 

Recently, the Avalanche ripped off a sustained win streak, but hints of complacency appeared this week. On Tuesday night, Colorado sat back on its 3-1 lead and nearly gave the Washington Capitals the opportunity to come back. And then, on Thursday, the Avs blew a two-goal lead and lost to the woeful Anaheim Ducks. 

The Avs’ collapse was shocking as it unfolded, with the Ducks exploding the Avs’ neutral zone forecheck to create rush chances. The Avs’ gaps were inconsistent, and their own-zone coverage was careless. When Colorado is on its game, it usually is a very fast team with enormous skill at the top of the lineup. 

The Blues rank in the bottom-ten in the NHL in high-danger chances against and expected goals against per 60 minutes. Given how St. Louis defends the blue line and back-checks, I think a Nathan MacKinnon highlight reel rush is on the table. But MacKinnon aside, the two areas where I think Colorado could demolish St. Louis are off the counterattack—because the Avs’ neutral zone forecheck, when working properly, can be a fount of scoring chances—and with their feints on the cycle.

Colorado loves to run motion in one area as a maneuver to unlock another portion of the ice. This was highlighted on Thursday night against Anaheim. On his first goal, the Avs brought Mikko Rantanen high and ran a lot of motion at the point before spreading the Ducks wide and shooting into a three-wide look at the net with Rantanen crashing off the weak side. The Avs also like to use motion on the perimeter as a mechanism for unlocking the cross-seam pass to the backdoor, as seen in Samuel Girard’s goal on Thursday. 

The Avs also have the goaltending advantage in this matchup. With Thomas Greiss having started on Thursday for St. Louis, one can assume Jordan Binnington will be in net on Saturday. Binnington has been one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL this year and has been among the bottom-five worst goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in the month of January. 

The Blues have looked deflated and spiritless in recent games, and I think the Avalanche will be eager to pummel them in their final contest before the break. As such, I’m willing to take the 60-minute line to make the number palatable.

Pick: Avalanche 60 minute line -135

Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers
Saturday, January 28 – 6:00 PM ET
It is ironic how this Florida Panthers season played out. Coach Andrew Brunette was ousted despite stewarding the Panthers to a Presidents’ Trophy and the second round of the playoffs, where they lost to the winner of the Eastern Conference and reigning two-time Cup winner. Florida was too finesse and soft and bringing in coach Paul Maurice would rectify that. Oops. 

The Panthers are look unlikely to make the playoffs, and in their past two games they looked soft and breathtakingly sloppy. Against the Rangers, they didn’t get to the net for tips or screens and lost 6-2. In their 7-6 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins, they blithely surrendered the neutral zone, failed to box out, and were consistently on the wrong side of the puck. On Saturday, they will face the number one team in the NHL at exposing these types of weaknesses.

The Bruins can dice you in myriad ways. They can use their defencemen on the rush or cycle to give a more varied attack. They can use set plays off the faceoff. They can force you to defend them in the low slot on tip plays. They can open up the seams, especially for David Pastrnak. Against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night, Boston was able to use a two-man game where speed to the outside forced a delayed read on a coverage switch for the Bruin attacking the middle lane. Against the Panthers, I think the Bruins just need to get the puck in the offensive zone and Florida will do the work for them.

In fairness, the Panthers do have offensive talent, ranking eighth in goals per game and on the power play. But they are a shot-volume team, and they lead the league in shots per game. Can they penetrate the Bruins’ defensive layers on the cycle? On the rush, can they bypass the tight gaps? In their win on Thursday, the Lightning demonstrated that, if you drive the puck below the goal line, you can find cracks in the Bruins’ zone defensive coverage operating from beneath the circles. I am skeptical Florida can accomplish this strategy, though, as I believe the Panthers will spend most of the game hemmed in their own end. 

As bettors, there are a few important facts to bear in mind entering these contests. The Panthers are playing their second game of a back-to-back on Saturday. In the second game of back-to-backs this season, the Panthers have only one win, and that came against the pitiful Ducks! 

They have been using third-string goaltender Alex Lyon, as Spencer Knight and Sergei Bobrovsky have been injured. Who will start on Saturday is a mystery. Also, the Bruins have not lost consecutive games this season. Every loss they’ve had has been followed by a win. They have been terrific on the road, and I love them on the moneyline.

Pick: Bruins -155

Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning
Saturday, January 28 – 7:00 PM ET
The Lightning played two of the most entertaining games I watched this week. Both of them, against the Minnesota Wild and Boston Bruins, had a playoff feel. The checking was tight. The intensity was high. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was brilliant. And the Lightning came away with two victories. Even though the Kings are a non-conference foe, the strategy for this game should pique hockey fans’ interest. 

Coach Jon Cooper has been delineating his talent of late. He’s been using a shutdown line spearheaded by Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Alex Killorn, and a superline featuring Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and Brayden Point. Cooper is attentive to matchups, and he will be doing everything in his power to keep the superline away from Phillip Danault, the Kings’ shutdown specialist. I’m also thinking he’ll be gunning for the Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe line with the Cirelli triumvirate.

How well the Lightning can assert themselves in this game will depend on their ability to dominate the blue lines. The Kings play a 1-3-1 in the neutral zone, which has some teams inclined to chip it deep and retrieve it in fear they cough up a puck and feed the Kings’ counterattack. 

But quick puck movement can beat the 1-3-1. On James van Riemsdyk’s goal for the Flyers when they played the Kings on Tuesday, he had a two-on-one with Owen Tippett after Philadelphia eluded the Kings’ neutral-zone vise.  The Kucherov line is allergic to chipping and chasing, so it will look to include its defencemen and attempt clean entries against the Kings. If Los Angeles can shut down the neutral zone, the Lightning may struggle to generate offence at 5-on-5.

The Lightning are determined to the point of being arrogant at holding the blue lines. Tampa Bay has a few defencemen who recover extremely well, and, of course, they have Vasilevskiy in net as the failsafe. But if the Kings can push the puck north when Tampa Bay’s blueliners gap up, they can get rush chances against the Lightning forwards. 

It’s not just that the Kings are playing the second game of a back-to-back on Saturday, although that raises concerns. It’s that the Kings are badly outmatched at goaltender. They have strong analytics, and they have the speed and forecheck that allow them to hang with the Lightning. But ultimately, a more well-rested Lightning team playing its final game before break has me liking Tampa Bay, and I’m willing to grab them in 60-minutes to make the price more digestible. 

Pick: Lightning 60 minute line -130