Good art challenges the consumer. Do we trust the narrator? Can a character change? How does the environment affect the protagonist and shape the story? 

As hockey bettors, we also need to interrogate our assumptions about various teams by reviewing their pricing on sportsbooks, advanced stats, and their record. With the NHL on pause, it’s worth gauging who is overvalued, who is undervalued, and who is our Jekyll-and-Hyde team.

Florida Panthers: Most Overvalued

The Panthers are in a hole deep enough that they can only see the sun in the sky. They are currently outside the playoff picture (they have the 12th best points percentage in the conference), and among the teams ahead of them that they could theoretically catch, only the Washington Capitals have played more games. 

Yet somehow, the Panthers have the eighth shortest odds to win the Eastern Conference. On a game-to-game basis, they get respect despite having a -5-goal differential and a porous defence. The Panthers are closer to frauds than contenders.

The beginning of the season signaled reasons for optimism despite Florida’s lousy record. Through 23 games and two months, the Panthers were 10-9-4, which is an eyesore, but their advanced stats were strong. Their offence stayed awesome under new coach Paul Maurice, but most importantly, they were doing a better job defending. In expected goals against at 5-on-5, they ranked in the top ten. Once their goaltending improved, they could build upon their more well-rounded play over 200 feet. But that didn’t happen.

While the team’s offence is still tremendous, the defence hasn’t been there. In December and January, the Panthers were in the bottom eight in expected goals against and high-danger chances against. Watching them, it’s shocking they aren’t ranked farther down in the standings. Their gaps are poor. They get lost on defence. They don’t box out well and their defensive group is perilously absent of viable blueliners, an especially acute concern when there are injuries. 

The biggest issue for the Panthers is a lack of a solution in goal. There are teams like the Edmonton Oilers that started the season realizing they had a glaring goaltending problem –Jack Campbell – but found an answer with their backup. For the Panthers, Sergei Bobrovsky, Spencer Knight, and Alex Lyon are three poor options. Among goaltenders with six or more games played, the trio ranks in the bottom 21 out of 76 eligible goaltenders this season in Goals Saved Above Expected GSAx. Not good! 

The Panthers lack depth at forward, defence, and goaltending. Their blueprint for winning on a night-to-night basis boils down to their offence prevailing over their defensive lapses. For me, the appeal isn’t there.

Winnipeg Jets: Most Undervalued

If readers sense a Paul Maurice theme, almost like the column is one giant fade of him, you won’t see any pushback from me.  I think Maurice’s former team, the Winnipeg Jets, is flying a little under the radar. 

Consider: The Jets have more regulation wins than the Hurricanes and Devils. They thrive at home with an impressive 18-8 record. They have a potent top-six forward group, a Norris Trophy-candidate defenceman, and an elite goaltender. They gap up and sort out coverage well, and their numbers protecting the slot and defending the cycle are very good. Also, while their advanced stats were very poor in the first two months of the season, these have improved by a healthy margin over the last two months. 

Yet the Jets are somehow +550 to win the Central Division despite the fact they narrowly trail the Dallas Stars for first place and have a lead in points percentage on the banged-up Colorado Avalanche and goaltending-deficient Minnesota Wild.

I’m not sure if the skepticism is a vestige of when Maurice coached the Jets, but under coach Rick Bowness, I don’t see a lot of weak spots on this team. It’s a big team that can play a physical brand of hockey, and on the cycle, they like to involve their defencemen as they interchange and force opponents to make quick reads. But they’re also fast, and when given space in the neutral zone, they can strike off the rush.

As it stands right now, the sportsbooks are expecting the Nashville Predators to miss the playoffs, which means only the Dallas Stars will have a goaltender at Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck’s level in the prospective postseason bracket. Even though the Jets’ defensive group raises some questions, their forwards’ commitment to defence is there under Bowness, and it empowers their defencemen to be aggressive defending the blue lines.

For hockey bettors, now could be a good time to buy in. A hallmark of the Jets this season has been consistency. Winnipeg’s longest losing streak has been three games. One of these transpired in December and one occurred right before the All-Star break. In December, when they lost three straight, they went on to win their next five. The Jets’ funks this season have been fleeting, and they should come out of the All-Star break well rested and, most importantly, healthy.

The sportsbooks might not be treating the Jets like one of the league’s best teams, but in short order, they may reorient. Bettors can get a jump on them before that happens.

Ottawa Senators: Jekyll-and-Hyde Team

A friend of mine wants to make a trip to Ottawa in the spring to see a game, and the prospect of witnessing the Senators in person is certainly exhilarating. I’m drawn to the young talent that oozes potential, but also there is the curiosity factor. How do the Senators manage to tantalize with their skill, yet consistently disappoint? 

The Senators are versatile, blending speed and power. They are strong in the advanced stats. They are among the best in the NHL in special teams. Goaltender Anton Forsberg is having a really nice season. They have depth at forward, which has been underscored by the injury to Josh Norris. 

But Ottawa has very long odds to make the playoffs. To hammer the point home of how bizarre this season has been, the Senators have had three, four-game win streaks, yet in points percentage they are ranked 13th in the Eastern Conference. The Boston Bruins have only lost 12 games this season—but two of those defeats were to the Ottawa Senators.

The short answer to what ails them: A poor shooting percentage and one sustained losing streak. Ottawa has the worst PDO in the NHL, and shooting percentage is the driving force. Weirdly, their shooting percentage on the power play is among the league’s highest, so it’s only at 5-on-5 that Ottawa finds itself snakebit.  

The aforementioned losing streak occurred in late October and lasted almost into mid-November. It lasted seven games. The Senators lost six of the seven in regulation. Digging into the numbers, the offence was creating oodles of chances, but the defence was getting torched, and the team’s goals for couldn’t outpace their goals against.

The Senators could be suffering from the vicissitudes of a young team, but it makes them unpredictable. In their last ten games they lost to the Colorado Avalanche 7-0 and to the Winnipeg Jets 5-1. They also crushed the Toronto Maple Leafs  6-2 (albeit with no Auston Matthews). 

The Senators are thrillingly unpredictable. Currently riding a four-game win streak, they have an opportunity to shed that descriptor by beating the Edmonton Oilers on February 11. If the Senators have taught us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected.