In an 82-game season, finding different sources of motivation are critical. For the Boston Bruins, it’s the desire for an easier first-round playoff opponent. Slip into second in the Atlantic Division and Boston will face the Toronto Maple Leafs or Tampa Bay Lightning. Either would be a miserable first-round opponent.

For the New Jersey Devils, it’s the fear of taking your foot off the pedal. The Devils have far exceeded expectations, but they are young and inexperienced. Fall into complacency and their lead in a competitive Eastern Conference will dwindle. 

For the Carolina Hurricanes, it’s battling through injuries. Sebastian Aho is injured and the team is also missing goaltender Frederik Andersen. Carolina wins because its sum is greater than its parts, but Aho and Andersen are crucial players. 

How these teams have ground out wins and are oriented for this weekend informs my wagering advice. 

Columbus Blue Jackets at Boston Bruins
Saturday, December 17 – 1:00 PM ET

Nothing has come easy for the Columbus Blue Jackets this season. On average they allow four goals a game while being one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. They have the worst power play in the NHL. They have dreadful numbers in expected goals and high-danger chances and their defensive group has been wiped out by injury. For Columbus, any hope and optimism are pinned on what the roster could look like in the future. With the worst points percentage in the Eastern Conference, improving on the status quo won’t be hard.

Unsurprisingly, Saturday afternoon’s opponent, the NHL-leading Bruins, presents a nightmare matchup for Columbus. When Jim Montgomery took over as Bruins coach this season, he wanted to change the offence but maintain their ferocious defence. 

What that looks like is a Boston team that leans into aggression in all facets. The Bruins are more brazen about using interference and picks to open lanes. Their defencemen spearhead the rush and aid the transition by layering the attack. The Bruins’ counterattack game is potent as they exhibit patience to find the cross-seam pass or pass into the slot. 

But this is Boston so defence remains the team’s backbone. The Bruins contest every inch of space with the assumption that support is underneath. If opponents can bypass the Bruins’ waves of skaters, sometimes they can find time and room on the weak side.

I think this game becomes a multi-goal spread simply because the Blue Jackets’ defencemen are too young and not nimble enough to handle the Bruins’ forecheck. 
The Blue Jackets have a few gifted puck-transporters in Johnny Gaudreau, Kent Johnson, and Jack Roslovic, but Boston will step up and eliminate their skating lanes. To beat Boston, the Blue Jackets will need to sustain a forecheck and avoid costly puck management errors like the one Gustav Nyquist committed on the Brandon Hagel goal for the Lightning Thursday night.

The Bruins have the lowest goals against in the NHL and Linus Ullmark ranks top five in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). The Bruins will be at home coming off a loss against Los Angeles where they blew a two-goal lead. I’m expecting a rout, which has me opting for the Bruins’ puck line and taking the under for the Blue Jackets forwards who aren’t Johnny Gaudreau or Patrik Laine.

Picks: Bruins puck line -140, Gustav Nyquist U 0.5 points -165, Kent Jonson U 0.5 points -180, Jack Roslovic U 0.5 points -145

Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes
Saturday, December 17 – 7:00 PM ET

Defencemen who rack up points get the fanfare. Look at the Norris Trophy voting and it’s obvious that scoring weighs heavily. Possessing mobility and playmaking have become borderline requisites to play even third-pair minutes. With that backdrop, the appreciation from the hockey community for what makes Jaccob Slavin valuable is refreshing. 

Slavin has a wicked poke-check. He always protects the house. He assiduously gaps up and holds the blue lines. He plays against opponents’ best players. But he is not an offensive creator. He ranks as a negative in offensive rating on Evolving Hockey. He has seven points in 29 games. Herein lies the appeal of taking his under for points.

I see three paths to Slavin obtaining a point on Saturday. The first possibility is that he is in the right place at the right time. He records an assist by passing to defensive partner Brent Burns or by finding the outlet on the breakout in stride. 

Another outcome that could gain him a point is if his shot-pass leads to a tip-in goal. Slavin doesn’t have a big shot, but he eagerly looks for his teammates in the slot for deflections.

Or Slavin could find himself on a rush chance due to the Hurricanes’ own-zone defensive coverage. The Hurricanes play man-on-man defence, and against Seattle on Thursday night, Slavin found himself chasing the puck toward the blue line. When a turnover occurred, Slavin suddenly was above the puck and charging down the weak side for a two-on-one. If Martin Necas had slipped the puck through the Kraken defender, Slavin would have had a prime chance to score.
 
With the Hurricanes playing at home and having the last change, I think Slavin will see a lot of the Stars’ Jason Robertson line, which is their primary offensive threat, and Slavin’s focus will be on shutting them down. With offence an ancillary concern, and with how well the Stars get in shooting lanes and keep the puck out of their own net, I think it will be a very low-scoring contest and unlikely that Slavin finds his way on the scoresheet.

Pick: Jaccob Slavin U 0.5 points -180

Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils
Saturday, December 17 – 7:30 PM ET

After many years in the wilderness, the Devils shocked the hockey world with a blistering start this season, punctuated by a 13-game win streak. After so many years in the cellar, the young players they selected high in the draft were flourishing. But a dip was inevitable. The Devils have lost their last four games. The Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins are both lurking in second. How much cause for concern should there be?

Not much! In the underlying numbers, the Islanders game, which was New Jersey’s first loss in the streak, was the only clunker. The Devils outshot their opponents at 5-on-5 in their last three games. In high-danger chances they were dramatically better in two of their last three contests and they tied the Stars with 11 each. Jack Hughes still looks awesome. And on Saturday, the Florida Panthers might be just what the Devils need.

If the Panthers have not hit full-blown panic mode, they must be close. Their record is strikingly bad. Aleksander Barkov has been sufficiently estranged from his old form that the Panthers’ announcing crew seemed relieved in the first period of Florida’s game on Thursday night against Pittsburgh, saying he looked like himself again. 

Florida is thin at forward and defence, a concern exacerbated by an illness that is ripping through the team and sidelining vital players. But mostly, what made this team special last year was its redoubtable offence, which could claw its way back from any deficit. Florida is down nearly an entire goal per game from last season, sitting just inside the top ten.

The Devils are the faster team. New Jersey wants to push the puck down the ice – quickly. Turn the puck over against the Devils on the breakout or in transition and they can bury you. The Devils run a clever offence that operates a five-man attack, and they engineer smart ways to attack the weak side. This actually sounds like the Panthers of last year.

If the Panthers get hemmed in their own end, they get loosey-goosey. They forget about the weak-side defenceman and leave the back door open. They find themselves on the wrong side of the puck. It can look messy.

One area where the Panthers can attack the Devils that is evident in New Jersey’s losses thus far is at the point. The Devils will overload on the puck and leave the blue line open. If the Panthers scout this well, Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour should be creeping toward the top of the circles to crank shots.

The Panthers are going to live and die by the forecheck in this game. New Jersey gets excellent support from the forwards on defence, which empowers its defencemen to deny entries with gusto. If the Devils are cleanly exiting their end, it will be a long night for Florida.

The Devils have more depth, better goaltending, and are playing at home against a Florida team that has struggled on the road. I’ll take the New Jersey moneyline.

Pick: Devils -140